Russell Martin Is No Longer Like Bobby Grich
by David Young on Dec 18, 2009 7:26 PM PST
in Dodgers History & Records
Email
PrintIn November I wrote a story on the similarity scores for Dodger players as listed by baseball-reference.com. In the comments, Phil Gurnee thought it odd that Russell Martin had non-catchers in his list and when I double-checked the formula, it didn't make sense to me either, so I filed a bug report with baseball-reference. They agreed that there was a bug and fixed it; score one for Phil.
I finally got around to checking the new lists and the only changes are to the lists of similar players for Russell Martin, Casey Blake, and Rafael Furcal. The corrected lists appear below. The first link above is to the original article, which now contains the corrected tables as well as the original incorrect ones. I just couldn't bear to erase something linking Russell Martin to Bobby Grich.
| Similar Player | Similarity Score | Similar Player | Similarity Score | Similar Player | Similarity Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thurman Munson | 966 | Aaron Boone | 938 | Craig Biggio | 934 | ||
| Sammy White | 956 | Melvin Mora | 930 | Jay Bell | 921 | ||
| Ray Fosse | 942 | Jim Hickman | 911 | Tony Fernandez | 910 | ||
| Ed McFarland | 941 | Dave Hollins | 910 | Ray Durham | 900 | ||
| Rich Gedman | 933 | Charlie Maxwell | 909 | Barry Larkin | 895 | ||
| Yadier Molina | 932 | Jim Lemon | 908 | Cristian Guzman | 893 | ||
| Benito Santiago | 932 | Mel Hall | 907 | Herman Long | 887 | ||
| Jack Clements | 930 | Hoot Evers | 905 | Orlando Cabrera | 885 | ||
| Tim McCarver | 926 | Jay Payton | 903 | Lou Whitaker | 885 | ||
| Bob O'Farrell | 926 | Kevin Millar | 902 | Frankie Crosetti | 885 | ||
81 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
how do you get
such beautifully formatted tables? Are you guys limited to the same wysiwyg editor than we peons use for Fanposts?
vr, Xei
Seriously, what gives?
Here I am trying to post statistical information on different players, only to try to find out how Eric does it. Couldn’t find anything and couldn’t do anything on my Excel file.
by Julio Nievas on Dec 18, 2009 8:51 PM PST up reply actions
There is also a function for adding a table in the regular story editor but for the formatting I almost always use the HTML editor anyway.
by Eric Stephen on Dec 18, 2009 9:47 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
I also used HTML coding for the table.
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
by David Young on Dec 18, 2009 10:38 PM PST up reply actions
I get funky and inconsistent looking spacing using HTML coding on my Fanposts. I guess I don’t know where the rocks are.
vr, Xei
I know just barely more than jack shit about HTML coding. I do use this website sometimes. The links lead to web pages where you can try to encoding and see how it looks.
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
by David Young on Dec 18, 2009 10:52 PM PST up reply actions
this is awesome
both the information provided, and what the information reveals. The closest thing to Russell Martin at age 26 is Thurman F**king Munson! Look at the statistics, and it’s true. Not only that, but Munson had a Martinesque slump (or Martin has had a Munsonesque slump, rather) at the same age, though it was somewhat less pronounced. In 1972, at 24/25, he hit .301 with 20 home runs, then slipped to .261 with 13 home runs the follwoing year. Moreover, his slugging percentage dropped over 100 points! I’m sure many Yankee fans at the time thought they’d seen Munson’s best days already. How wrong they were!
None of this is to say that Russell Martin will be the next Thurman Munson- it’s only to point out that sometimes, players go through prolonged slumps early in their career. As bad as Martin was most of last year, I think he’s young enough and had enough good at bats to inspire some hope that he’ll bounce back.
Munson
I wish I was old enough to have seen guys like Munson play. They were some of the most important players on the team, even when the offensive stats didnt show it.
I do think that Martin will rebound. He showed so much talent early on, and the struggles, IMO, are from the over 500 games he has played at catcher in the last few years.. unbelieveable. More rest and getting his swing back from 07, and he is, once again, an all star.
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Dec 18, 2009 8:23 PM PST reply actions
I sure hope you're right
Maybe Xeifrank can’t believe it, but this clearly shows that Martin can rebound somewhat to a .800+ OPS… Yes it did take a lot for me to say that.
by Julio Nievas on Dec 18, 2009 8:47 PM PST up reply actions
I won't say that he can't do it
… just that it’s highly unlikely in 2010. Something bad happened to Martin’s power last year, perhaps he started drinking the water that Andruw Jones was drinking from while he was here… who knows. I’d say about 15% chance Martin has an OPS of > .800 at the end of the 2010 season. What’s that, about 6 to 1 odds?
vr, Xei
Part of it that it became a lot harder to hit in Dodgers Stadium the last two years. Its not a coincidence Martin’s .800+ OPS season came in the last year Dodgers stadium was considered a slight hitters park.
Now Dodgers Stadium is a pretty extreme pitchers park, and everyone’s offensive output in DS took a hit expect Andre Ethier.
Martin splits
Using OPS
-—————————————
2009 Home: .703
2009 Away: .660
-—————————————
2008 Home: ..775
2008 Away: ..786
-————————————-
2007 Home: ..749
2007 Away: .932
-————————————-
2006 Home: .905
2006 Away: .675
-————————————-
As much as I’d like to find an excuse for Martin, I don’t think we can pin it on Dodger stadium.
vr, Xei
I wonder why that changed. There was no significant remodeling of DS. They didn’t change the hitter’s eye. The mound didn’t change in a way perceptible to me. McCourt didn’t figure out how to add more pricey seats in what used to be foul ground. So what was it? Those temporary structure merchandise shops back behind the dugouts changed the air flow? Climate change?
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
by David Young on Dec 18, 2009 10:50 PM PST up reply actions
It is amusing that The Thurman Munson was selected as a player that is similar to Russell Martin
It’s like finding a rare baseball card in a packet.
Off topic, but . . .
Kudos to Xeifrank for taking on Dave Cameron of FanGraphs (in comments section of Bradley/Silva piece). Both of you are way beyond my level of understanding baseball.
sausage link
I didn’t actually take anybody on. I made a post that was partially factually wrong and partially factually correct. Naturally, I got eaten alive for it at LL. And eventually banned because I kept forgetting to put a subject line in my comment. I was able to partially retract and correctly restate my comment before the ban. One brave soul came to my defense… but having been banned I was unable to further defend myself. Nothing to look at there… old story. :)
vr, Xei
Jon Link
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
by David Young on Dec 18, 2009 10:34 PM PST up reply actions
I should add
He’s not exactly taking on Cameron, but the notion that the Mariners are vastly improved. (I’ll stop talking for him now.)
My point
was that the Mariners GM made some great moves, but those moves did little more than keep the Mariners from treading water.
For example…
Add Figgins, but lose Beltre
Add Lee but lose Bedard (and Washburn 09 production).
Add Bradley
Lose Branyan
A gain of around 2.5 WAR. Nice work to keep the team afloat, but not like they have improved a ton over last year. The Angels have come down to the Mariners much more than the Mariners have climbed to the Angels. That was my point, I just didn’t state it clear enough it seems.
vr, Xei
Last thing
I’m a little interested in these two prospects we got from CWS, especially Ely. And Link’s the one with the better stuff. Here’s to non-zero chances for something good.
Martin’s power disapeared for a few reasons last year, IMO. The first was fatigue. Its a known fact that when a catcher is overworked, his offense goes 1st.
The 2nd, and more difficult to fix, is that Donnie messed up his swing. Don’s approach from his Yanks days is to wait for his pitch and kill it, being willing to take a walk. It helped Ethier and Kemp because they still needed to learn control of the strike zone. However, Martin knew how to control it already. When Donnie made him wait for his pitcher longer, he was then missing his pitch and fouling it off, or rolling over/poping it up. His pop up ratio must have gone up through the roof last year. If he ignore’s Donnie’s approach and goes back to his own, he should be fine.
The final one was his offseason workouts. He wanted to lose weight to try to become more durable. He lost 20 LBS, but that weight affected his power. It took him a LONG time to get it back, and, if you remember, his end of the regular season was very strong.
Simple things like going back to his old tactics, working less during the calendar year(WBC, 140+ games catching, postseason, and offseason workouts) and gaining more muscle, even if he loses some speed, and he is once again an allstar.
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Dec 18, 2009 9:44 PM PST reply actions
I always wonder if Mike Scioscia plays Jeff Mathis more, and Mike Napoli less, than some fans and bloggers would like for this type of reason. Perhaps he thinks/knows that Napoli’s offense advantage would dwindle if he caught more than 100 games or whatever the threshold is.
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
by David Young on Dec 18, 2009 10:54 PM PST up reply actions
Fun fact
Brian Barton, our newest NRI, was Kershaw’s first major league walk.
But the real question is whether he has HITTER HANDS?
Nice pull.
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
by David Young on Dec 18, 2009 10:54 PM PST up reply actions
Another fun B.Barton fact
He appeared in one major league game in 2009, with the Braves. He came in as a pinch runner…and was thrown out trying to steal.
by Eric Stephen on Dec 19, 2009 1:41 PM PST up reply actions
Going to WAR
I have my 2009 WAR Worksheet up now for the 2010 NL West teams. It is in Beta (version) at the moment. Looking to clean it up as the winter progresses and to make additions and or deletions as more teams fill out their rosters.
vr, Xei
The WAR for Martin, and Blake seem a hit high. At least for Martin, is it a case of him just playing so much?
Blake had an even higher WAR last year, so it’s regressed. For catchers, all you have to be is league average to pull in a 2.0 or so.
vr, Xei
wow
Lincecum’s pretty good. I love that you have Stults in there. Is there a WAR you’d like to see—ideally—from your #4 starter?
2.0 would be nice
4th and 5th starters are often a group of 5 or 6 pitchers by seasons end. A league average pitcher who eats innings will get you 2+ WAR. That’s why pitchers like Garland have decent value.
vr, Xei
interesting.
you may be undervaluing a full season from mike adams. i like the work.
Ned's 710 interview
Interesting tidbit:
He has a potential deal that’s “simmering a bit.” It’s not with Cincinnati he said.
Apparently, the mystery team needs to lower their asking price first, but it sounds like it could happen in the next few days.
I guess it's Padilla then...
RT @Ken_Rosenthal: Nats making strong run at Garland. Wants 3 yrs. Nats would prefer two. Other possibilities for Nats: Marquis, D. Davis
by Eric Stephen on Dec 19, 2009 10:19 AM PST via mobile reply actions
Russell Martin still has a special place in my heart because he can raise the ire of McCovey Chronicles like no other player.
2009-10 Kings Hockey: Delivering Milk Steaks from the Meat Train at an arena near you!
by DodgerBlueBalls on Dec 19, 2009 10:35 AM PST reply actions
The Reds and 3B Scott Rolen have restructured his contract and have extended him for two more guaranteed seasons. Rolen’s new contract will pay him $23.625 million through the 2012 season with a $5 million signing bonus that is deferred over the next three seasons without interest. He was originally expected to earn $11 million in 2010 but will now get $6 million in 2010, $6.5 million in 2011 and $6.5 million in 2012.
http://marksheldon.mlblogs.com/archives/2009/12/rolen_signs_extension.html
He hasn't really gone down $5 mil for 2010 then
That $5 mil is now called a “deferred signing bonus” and he gets it in 2012. His annual valuation has been halved, but he gets two more years at this half-value, plus another mil each year. So it’s like he was extended one more year at his $11 mil salary, plus an extra mil, but plays for 3 years instead of 2 for the same money, when he wouldn;t get anyone else to pay him at $11 mil or close to it. Pretty good. Sounds a bit familiar.
I read the comment as Rolen would get the signing bonus in installments over the next three seasons.
by Eric Stephen on Dec 19, 2009 11:45 AM PST up reply actions
It's a fairly sizable concession by Rolen
Without the restructuring, Rolen was due $11m in each of the next three seasons, for a total of $22 million.
With the restructuring, Rolen will earn a total of $24 million, but over three years (weird that Sheldon noted $23.625m when his salaries add to $24m).
Depending on when he receives the signing bonus, here is the NPV (I used 3% as the discount rate, just as a rough estimate):
NPV
Current contract: $21.048m
$5m spread out over 3 years: $22.615m
$5m bonus in 2013: $22.343m
So Rolen does get an extra $1.3 – $1.6m for his troubles, but he also loses the ability to sign a new contract in 2012.
To me, this means the Reds aren’t going to dump Harang or Arroyo (unless they get some unbelievable offer). I can’t believe Rolen would have agreed to do the deal — which ostensibly helps the Reds — without some assurances from Jocketty that they wouldn’t “try to win” now.
by Eric Stephen on Dec 19, 2009 12:01 PM PST up reply actions
Scratch that
I am an idiot. I incorrectly assumed Rolen had an extra year on his current contract.
by Eric Stephen on Dec 19, 2009 12:03 PM PST up reply actions
and from Jayson Stark’s latest, it appears the signing bonus in fact won’t be paid until some later date:
Instead, under the terms of the new contract, Rolen will earn $6 million in 2010, plus a $5 million signing bonus that the sides agreed would be deferred without interest, according to a source who has seen the details of the agreement
by Eric Stephen on Dec 19, 2009 12:05 PM PST up reply actions
I read that quote as merely not stating any details about the deferral except “without interest”. Casey Blake got 3/17.5 for age 35+. Rolen is getting 3/24 for the same age. Rolen is a better hitter and fielder than Blake, when healthy, but his 128 games last year is the most since 2006. Coincidentally, both put up a 102 OPS+ in the half season with the team they signed with. I guess it’s an ok deal for the Reds because Rolen had the leverage of the bigger salary they wanted to defer, but how’s his back these days?
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
John sickels minor league ball . com
There is a discussion of dodger prospects… head over there and give your comments on specific prospects and who interests you and sleepers and stuff like that..
http://www.minorleagueball.com/2009/12/19/1208747/los-angeles-dodgers-farm-system#comments
#Cubs have asked #Nationals about Nyjer Morgan, but Washington doesn’t want to move him. http://bit.ly/6SKSZE
I like Morgan, He’s super fast, hits for a fairly high average, can walk, and plays great defense.
Morgan is 29 but isn’t arb-eligible until after two more seasons, so the Nats could have three peak years (29-31) for the cost of two pre-arb years and one arb-eligible year. Doesn’t seem like a guy they should be trading. On the other hand, they could be selling high because he’s only a 70% base stealer with a 101 career OPS+, with only the half season after the trade as a really good hitter, plus Jim Hendry may not be the hardest guy to get to overpay you.
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
Barton
I remember him with the 2008 Cards and wondering why they were sitting a guy like Barton on the bench when they were playing Adam Kennedy in RF.
Oh thank God! I never want Martin remembered with the Grich who stole Xmas. and please God, dont let the Dodgers sign Garland. I promise to never sin again:)
train
I'm calling it now
USC will challenge in the Pac 10 this year – hoops. Totally new team today with Gerrity at the point.
Gerrity was AMAZING, except for those t.o’s, but damn does this team desperately needed a solid PG, and Gerrity delivered. I’m with you on that one.
by Julio Nievas on Dec 19, 2009 4:42 PM PST up reply actions
Our best player hasn't even played yet either
we have the best big man combo in the league right now, and when Leonard comes back next week, we will brutalize people on the boards. If Gerrity can keep playing well, and Simmons or Dwight steps up as a secondary ball handler (Donte can give us 8 minutes tops per night at PG) – and we hit shots – we will win.
Agreed, but
I’m done with Donte, and base on this game, K.O is too. 8 minutes is way too long for Donte. In the closing minutes, Gerrity stil looked fresh. He was 1-7, but really looked like a stud. And I can’t wait for Leonard. Top 3 in the PACX for sure.
by Julio Nievas on Dec 19, 2009 4:49 PM PST up reply actions
Fangraphs
I just found out that they have MINOR LEAGUE game logs. That is fantastic. Never knew about this.
That's great news
Where are they? I got lost trying to find them.
by Eric Stephen on Dec 19, 2009 11:48 PM PST up reply actions
It's pretty easy
Just go to the player and click Game Log. :)
It’s right next to “Season Stats.”
by silverwidow on Dec 20, 2009 12:08 AM PST up reply actions
That's where I clicked
Have only seen major league game logs
by Eric Stephen on Dec 20, 2009 12:13 AM PST up reply actions
Hmmm
I see it now, on Scott Elbert’s page. It wasn’t showing up on some others with both major and minor league time.
by Eric Stephen on Dec 20, 2009 12:15 AM PST up reply actions
Looks like it goes back to 2006
So any player that played in the minors from that point should be there.
MiLB game logs
eric, it may be a new feature that has a few bugs, so it only works on certain players…
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Dec 20, 2009 2:04 AM PST reply actions
Hard for me to be excited
about the Thurman Munson comp given that the same table shows Biggio as Furcal’s best similarity score, and Furcal couldn’t carry Biggio’s jock without hurting something.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
Medical update:
Furcal sustains another back injury while attempting to carry Biggio’s jock
by VeroJoe on Dec 21, 2009 8:49 AM PST via mobile up reply actions 1 recs
And that's with a 36 point deduction for 2B (Biggio) vs. SS (Furcal)
Reminder – they start at 1000 then deduct. The other similarity score deductions for batters are as follows:
- One point for each difference of 20 games played.
- One point for each difference of 75 at bats.
- One point for each difference of 10 runs scored.
- One point for each difference of 15 hits.
- One point for each difference of 5 doubles.
- One point for each difference of 4 triples.
- One point for each difference of 2 home runs.
- One point for each difference of 10 RBI.
- One point for each difference of 25 walks.
- One point for each difference of 150 strikeouts.
- One point for each difference of 20 stolen bases.
- One point for each difference of .001 in batting average.
- One point for each difference of .002 in slugging percentage.
Conspicuously absent is OBP. If Bill James still cared about similarity scores, he probably would have revised his formula by now.
Both played 10 seasons by this age, 1300 games for Furcal, 1379 for Biggio. Their BAs are only .004 apart, for 4 points, but Biggio averaged a little over 10 walks more per season, for an OBP difference of .027, but only the same 4 points. Only 1 or 2 points for the AB difference, depending on how you are supposed to round. The key difference is that similarity score uses only unadjusted stats, so the big difference between the two doesn’t show up, and that is in OPS+, 96 for Furcal, 123 for Biggio (the Astrodome being a huge factor).
For Martin and Munson, some of the counting numbers are really close (both at 570 G with only 7 ABs difference), but the era adjustment is huge, 103 OPS+ vs. 121.
Bottom line: similarity scores are fun, but not a whole lot more.
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
In Association With
Big League Stew - MLB - Yahoo! Sports
- U.S. senator cries foul over Nationals plans to take back park from Phillies fans
- Photo: Comerica Park readies itself for Hockeytown
- Podcast: Dirk Hayhurst talks about Italy, the reality of the big leagues and his new book
- Dennis ‘Oil Can’ Boyd claims he used cocaine before a majority of his games
- Does Billy Beane’s contract extension signal an optimistic dawn for Oakland fans?
Certain photos copyright © 2012 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
