Do We Really Know What to Expect from Loney
by StolenMonkey86 on Dec 2, 2009 1:41 PM PST
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PrintJames Loney is a likeable personality. He's also the king of nicknames - J-Lo, Crazy Eyes, Geoffery, Big Game James, etc. But do we really know what to expect from him as a hitter?
Batting Line and EqA:
2006: .284/.342/.549 .297
2007: .331/.381/.538 .312
2008: .289/.338/.434 .274
2009: .281/.357/.399 .278
It's not exactly comforting to see a falling ISO every year, particularly at an age where he should be developing power. It seems like it wouldn't be right to give up on the guy, particularly since he's still young (turns 26 next May), but given that he's going to start making more than the minimum soon, how worried should we be?
First, I want to compare Loney's minor league stats, preseason ZIPS projections, and PrOPS. This shows us his past, what we were expecting before the season started, and what we should have expected based on batted ball types. It also means checking Baseball-Reference, Baseball Think Factory, and The Hardball Times.
Minors:
2002 (rookie league): .371/.457/.624
2002 (A+): .299/.356/.388
2003 (A+): .276/.337/.400
2004 (AA): .238/.314/.327
2005 (AA): .284/.357/.419
2006 (AAA): .380/.426/.546
2007 (AAA): .279/.345/.382
ZIPS
2006: .250/.317/.343
2007: .297/.351/.434
2008: .296/.350/.470
2009: .295./347/.456
PrOPS OPS-PrOPS
2006: .276/.333/.454 .114
2007: .300/.350/.501 .068
2008: .289/.339/.426 .007
2009: .298/.371/.438 -.052
A few things stick out, just looking at these. First, as good as Loney's 2007 in the majors was, he was just plain awful in the minors that year - we probably wouldn't think he was as amazing if he was struggling like that in Dodger Stadium, even with the good end of the season. In any event, that was still enough to throw off ZIPS for every year after 2007. Secondly, PrOPS, which is based on batted ball types, suggests that his case was well overstated in 2006, and while 2007 was good if not a little lucky, 2008 was about what it should have been. What we don't appreciate enough, it would seem, is the progress Loney made in terms of getting on base in 2009; the .371 PrOBP is the best he had put up, and his walk rate was at the highest of his career this season too. From the looks of it, part of Loney's issue seems to be very similar to Billingsley's - he got lucky earlier in his career, and then 2009 was unlucky.
If you look at his batted ball stats, they're so consistent between 2008 and 2009 it's kind of eery. It's also frustrating that he's not slugging more with a 22% line drive rate. His home run rate was higher in 2007, but again, that's a partial season, and he was awful in Vegas in 2007. His plate discipline shows encouraging signs, though. He got much better at avoiding pitches out of the zone (going from swinging at 26% to 22% of out of zone pitches), boosting his walk rate to 10.8%. And one thing I found interesting is that other than 2008, he does not have a significant platoon split; in 2009, he actually hit better against lefties than righties. His worst slot in the batting order, for what it's worth, is 5th, where he spent most of his time this year. His best is 8th, then 3rd, then 6th and 7th.
Bill James has him hitting .295/.360/.440, but I wouldn't be surprised if he had a higher OBP. Given his poor 2009, he shouldn't get too much of a raise this year, so it seems reasonable to look forward to him putting up an .800 OPS season in Dodger Blue next year.
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Great fanpost
So its seems you are saying we should be patient with Loney?
I agree in theory, but with the facts on the ground that we currently have, the Dodgers will be operating from a pretty small (for the Dodgers anyway) budget. That means the luxury of waiting for guys to turn it around is even harder to rationalize.
The Dodgers should (and probably are) consider whether it is smart to move Loney and/or Martin (and probably Sherril but he wasn’t dissapointing last year.) I think Loney probably has the higher trade value considering he didn’t fall off a cliff (production wise) last year like Martin did. Then again, Martin plays a premium position (even if some metrics don’t think he plays it very well.) Not sure what I would do, but with Loney looking at $3MM, Martin at $6MM and Sherrill at $4MM, I would bet that one of these guys has to go.
My bet is Sherrill, but Loney and Martin will surely be considered by Dodger management.
$3M for Loney seems pretty high for first year of Arb
granted Jeff Francoeur got $3.375 million, although he was voted 3rd for ROY in 2005 and won a gold glove in 2007, and also had a 29 HR season in 2006. Loney has never topped 15 HR in a season. He had a good batting average in 2007, but if you factor in his poor minor league performance, 2007 wasn’t really quite as good. Ethier signed for $3.1 million, and I don’t think Loney gets quite as much. I see him getting $2-$2.5 million; and of course if he goes to arbitration, he’ll lose.
But no, my argument isn’t so much to be patient with Loney, but to also factor in his performance in the minors in 2006-2007 (and that was quite the BABIP heavy 2006 in AAA, but that’s another story), and realize that he’s actually a pretty consistent .800 OPS guy who just has some fluctuations due to luck.
by StolenMonkey86 on Dec 2, 2009 3:49 PM PST up reply actions
The $3MM arb number was courtesy of Eric Stephen at TBLA
so if you disagree take it up with him!!!!
Back on topic though, assuming he gets $3MM, is .800 OPS enough to warrant that expense for a corner infielder? If you are Colletti, and you need to make cuts somewhere, would you look at moving Loney?
by Michael White on Dec 2, 2009 4:01 PM PST up reply actions
I don't think so...
… the PR downside isn’t worth the $$$ savings. Martin is more likely to be moved, I think.
$3m might be high
but I suppose it will depend on what figures are exchanged. I haven’t done all the research yet ($3m was a quick glance guess), but here are some 3-year service time 1B over the last few years:
2007 – Adam LaRoche: $3.2m (114 OPS+ through 2006 with 187 runs, 213 RBI)
2008 – Kevin Youkilis: $3m (109 OPS+ through 2007 with 234 runs, 199 RBI)
2009 – Mike Jacobs: $3.25m (110 OPS+ through 2008 with 197 runs, 247 RBI)
Loney is at a 112 career OPS+ with 200 runs & 265 RBI
Honestly, I have no idea what to think about Russell Martin.
by StolenMonkey86 on Dec 2, 2009 3:49 PM PST up reply actions
But you have to replace those players and pay the replacements. Can Loney really be credibly replaced for less than $3M? Martin for less than $6M? Sherrill is the guy that could be more easily replaced for less $, I’d think.
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
Agree Sherril is the easiest to replace.
I think Loney is the toughest to replace.
Martin, probably not as difficult. Considering the crap-tastic year he put together last year there are certainly PVL’s who can do that job at half the price.
by Michael White on Dec 3, 2009 4:16 PM PST up reply actions
we don't know what to expect from ANY of these guys
it’s funny how many people two years ago felt that Loney would be better than Kemp, based on what they’d done up until that point. (Martin wasn’t even part of the discussion, as he was CLEARLY the best of all of them to the fans.) Both Loney and Martin, and especially Loney, looked somewhat better towards the end of the year, while Kemp looked a bit worse, so while Kemp is still the best by far right now, all these guys might perform a lot more closely to each other than we’d expect.
As for Loney specifically, I don’t think he had a “poor” 2009 at all- he was great on the road, mediocre at home. And yes, I know about comparing him to other first baseman and how it allegedly shows him to be a “bottom feeder”, but a) keep in mind the class of 1st baseman he’s up against (Berkman, Fielder, Teixeria, that guy in St. Louis), and b) there are some overlooked stats where he does quite nicely (RISP, BB/SO ration, etc.).
Bottom line- he’s still only 25, and has plenty of upside. Expect him to have a fine season, and hopefully, he will be part of the discussion of guys we need to give long term contracts to- because we KNOW none of these guys will be getting them now.
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