2010 CHONE Projections: Pitching
by Eric Stephen on Dec 5, 2009 11:14 PM PST
in Research
37 comments
Last month, Sean Smith of Anaheim Angels All The Way released his 2010 CHONE projections for offense. Now, we have the pitching projections as well. More info can be found at BaseballProjection.com. I have added the projections for many Dodgers, including some outgoing free agents, to go with the projections from the 2010 Bill James Handbook. As more projection systems release their projections, I will add them so we can get a more complete overall preview of the 2010 Dodgers.
I calculated FIP for the projections based on the formula at The Hardball Times. In these projections, keep in mind that playing time and pitching role is merely estimated.
Starters |
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| Clayton Kershaw |
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| Year | IP | ERA | FIP | BB/9 | K/9 |
| 2009 Bill James | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2009 CHONE | 115 | 4.15 | 4.30 | 4.46 | 7.98 |
| 2009 actual | 171.0 | 2.79 | 3.06 | 4.79 | 9.74 |
| 2010 Bill James | 180 | 3.25 | 3.47 | 4.55 | 9.40 |
| 2010 CHONE | 151 | 3.58 | 3.68 | 4.65 | 9.42 |
| 2010 status | under club control |
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| Chad Billingsley |
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| Year | IP | ERA | FIP | BB/9 | K/9 |
| 2009 Bill James | 193 | 3.68 | 3.72 | 3.92 | 8.81 |
| 2009 CHONE | 161 | 3.69 | 3.70 | 3.75 | 8.72 |
| 2009 actual | 196.1 | 4.03 | 3.77 | 3.94 | 8.21 |
| 2010 Bill James | 185 | 3.65 | 3.77 | 3.94 | 8.61 |
| 2010 CHONE | 182 | 3.71 | 3.73 | 3.76 | 8.60 |
| 2010 status | arbitration eliglble | ||||
| Hiroki Kuroda |
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| Year | IP | ERA | FIP | BB/9 | K/9 |
| 2009 Bill James | 192 | 3.89 | 4.38 | 2.53 | 5.86 |
| 2009 CHONE | 158 | 4.04 | 4.24 | 2.28 | 6.04 |
| 2009 actual | 117.1 | 3.76 | 3.61 | 1.84 | 6.67 |
| 2010 Bill James | 128 | 3.80 | 4.29 | 2.46 | 5.98 |
| 2010 CHONE | 154 | 4.32 | 3.99 | 2.45 | 6.31 |
| 2010 status | under contract |
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| Randy Wolf |
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| Year | IP | ERA | FIP | BB/9 | K/9 |
| 2009 Bill James | 195 | 4.25 | 4.30 | 3.32 | 7.62 |
| 2009 CHONE | 124 | 4.43 | 4.44 | 3.63 | 7.48 |
| 2009 actual | 214.1 | 3.23 | 3.99 | 2.44 | 6.72 |
| 2010 Bill James | 200 | 3.87 | 4.26 | 3.02 | 7.16 |
| 2010 CHONE | 163 | 4.42 | 4.38 | 3.09 | 6.52 |
| 2010 status | free agent |
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| Vicente Padilla |
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| Year | IP | ERA | FIP | BB/9 | K/9 |
| 2009 Bill James | 151 | 4.71 | 4.71 | 3.28 | 6.26 |
| 2009 CHONE | 152 | 4.91 | 4.77 | 3.55 | 6.34 |
| 2009 actual | 147.1 | 4.46 | 4.51 | 3.30 | 5.93 |
| 2010 Bill James | 141 | 4.66 | 4.73 | 3.26 | 6.19 |
| 2010 CHONE | 155 | 4.70 | 4.74 | 3.60 | 6.27 |
| 2010 status | free agent |
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| Padilla's stats with Texas included | |||||
| Jon Garland |
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| Year | IP | ERA | FIP | BB/9 | K/9 |
| 2009 Bill James | 186 | 4.69 | 5.02 | 2.90 | 4.40 |
| 2009 CHONE | 187 | 5.01 | 4.50 | 2.60 | 4.91 |
| 2009 actual | 204 | 4.01 | 4.43 | 2.69 | 4.81 |
| 2010 Bill James | 216 | 4.33 | 4.62 | 2.67 | 4.54 |
| 2010 CHONE | 186 | 4.55 | 4.53 | 2.71 | 4.60 |
| 2010 status | free agent |
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| Garland's stats with Arizona included | |||||
Bullpen |
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| Jonathan Broxton |
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| Year | IP | ERA | FIP | BB/9 | K/9 |
| 2009 Bill James | 70 | 3.09 | 2.63 | 3.47 | 11.19 |
| 2009 CHONE | 72 | 2.88 | 2.80 | 3.25 | 10.88 |
| 2009 actual | 76.0 | 2.61 | 1.98 | 3.43 | 13.50 |
| 2010 Bill James | 80 | 2.36 | 2.44 | 3.49 | 11.70 |
| 2010 CHONE | 67 | 2.69 | 2.51 | 3.36 | 11.82 |
| 2010 status | arbitration eliglble | ||||
| George Sherrill |
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| Year | IP | ERA | FIP | BB/9 | K/9 |
| 2009 Bill James | 53 | 3.40 | 3.43 | 4.58 | 10.19 |
| 2009 CHONE | 43 | 3.77 | 4.01 | 4.60 | 8.79 |
| 2009 actual | 69.0 | 1.70 | 3.09 | 3.13 | 7.96 |
| 2010 Bill James | 74 | 2.92 | 3.37 | 4.01 | 9.36 |
| 2010 CHONE | 52 | 3.63 | 3.77 | 3.98 | 9.35 |
| 2010 status | arbitration eliglble | ||||
| Sherrill's stats with Baltimore included | |||||
| Hong-Chih Kuo |
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| Year | IP | ERA | FIP | BB/9 | K/9 |
| 2009 Bill James | 69 | 3.39 | 2.90 | 3.52 | 10.96 |
| 2009 CHONE | 45 | 3.00 | 2.71 | 3.00 | 11.00 |
| 2009 actual | 30.0 | 3.00 | 3.18 | 3.90 | 9.60 |
| 2010 Bill James | 48 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 3.75 | 10.50 |
| 2010 CHONE | 39 | 3.23 | 3.23 | 3.23 | 9.69 |
| 2010 status | arbitration eliglble | ||||
| Ronald Belisario |
|||||
| Year | IP | ERA | FIP | BB/9 | K/9 |
| 2009 Bill James | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2009 CHONE | 37 | 6.08 | 6.58 | 5.11 | 5.59 |
| 2009 actual | 70.2 | 2.04 | 3.26 | 3.69 | 8.15 |
| 2010 Bill James | 69 | 4.04 | 4.25 | 4.17 | 7.17 |
| 2010 CHONE | 60 | 4.50 | 4.55 | 4.05 | 7.50 |
| 2010 status | under club control |
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| Ramon Troncoso |
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| Year | IP | ERA | FIP | BB/9 | K/9 |
| 2009 Bill James | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2009 CHONE | 60 | 4.20 | 4.08 | 3.60 | 6.75 |
| 2009 actual | 82.2 | 2.72 | 3.31 | 3.70 | 5.99 |
| 2010 Bill James | 72 | 3.88 | 3.59 | 3.75 | 6.63 |
| 2010 CHONE | 71 | 4.06 | 3.95 | 3.55 | 6.59 |
| 2010 status | under club control |
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| James McDonald |
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| Year | IP | ERA | FIP | BB/9 | K/9 |
| 2009 Bill James | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2009 CHONE | 127 | 4.54 | 5.12 | 4.11 | 7.72 |
| 2009 actual | 63.0 | 4.00 | 4.29 | 4.86 | 7.71 |
| 2010 Bill James | 74 | 3.77 | 4.27 | 4.01 | 9.12 |
| 2010 CHONE | 62 | 3.77 | 4.05 | 4.06 | 9.29 |
| 2010 status | under club control |
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| Scott Elbert | |||||
| Year | IP | ERA | FIP | BB/9 | K/9 |
| 2009 Bill James | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2009 CHONE | 43 | 3.98 | 4.36 | 5.65 | 10.47 |
| 2009 actual | 19.2 | 5.03 | 4.73 | 3.20 | 9.61 |
| 2010 Bill James | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2010 CHONE | 47 | 3.64 | 3.81 | 4.60 | 10.72 |
| 2010 status | under club control |
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| Cory Wade | |||||
| Year | IP | ERA | FIP | BB/9 | K/9 |
| 2009 Bill James | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2009 CHONE | 53 | 3.74 | 4.02 | 2.55 | 7.30 |
| 2009 actual | 27.2 | 5.53 | 4.13 | 3.25 | 5.86 |
| 2010 Bill James | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2010 CHONE | 62 | 4.21 | 4.41 | 3.05 | 7.11 |
| 2010 status | under club control |
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In addition, here are some other notable 2010 CHONE projections for other Dodgers.
| Other Projections |
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| Pitcher | IP | ERA | FIP | BB/9 | K/9 | 2010 Contract Status |
| Eric Stults |
138 | 4.89 | 4.61 | 3.72 | 6.59 | under club control (out of options) |
| Charlie Haeger |
170 | 4.98 | 5.14 | 4.34 | 6.51 | under club control (out of options) |
| Jeff Weaver |
49 | 4.41 | 4.48 | 3.12 | 6.43 | free agent |
0 recs |
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Sunday Soap Box
Congrats to the BCS for leaving three undefeated (very good) Div-I teams out of contention for the National title. Basically, Cincinnati, TCU and Boise St… none of their games mattered. They could’ve won them all or lost them all, it didn’t matter for their chances for a National championship. Tomorrow, when the final rankings are out, I will post my 8 team playoff matchups.
vr, Xei
Too much money is passing hands now in the present format
hence, no playoffs – only payoffs
by 68elcamino427 on Dec 6, 2009 11:00 AM PST up reply actions
I never understood that argument
I know the present system is pulling in a lot of money, but I don’t get why switching to playoffs would stop that. I’d think playoffs would result in more games, and better ratings/ticket sales for the games. It seems to me that there would be a way to distribute the money so everyone was getting more and no one lost any.
I started boycotting bowl games a few years back. Won’t go to one, or watch them on TV. All I can think about when watching them now is how they are missing out on possibly the greatest sporting event I would follow by not doing a playoff.
by CarolinaDodger on Dec 7, 2009 5:23 AM PST up reply actions
It wouldn't bother me at all
to watch TCU’s D vs. Cincy’s O in the title game. Actually, that would be a damn pretty good game. Unfortunately, they’re matched up against Boise St. in the Tostito’s Bowl.
CHONE
Seems like CHONE doesnt like the Dodgers… seem to think that everyone’s season was a fluke…
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Dec 6, 2009 3:44 PM PST reply actions
If JMac's a starter next season
And has a season like his CHONE projections are. That would be freakin’ awesome.
The Dodgers have 3-4 teams interested in $$ Juan Pierre and a 3-team deal is being explored to get L.A. a bad-contract starter in return.
Steve Henson, Twitter
My thoughts: YES!
That's So Vague...
…one can’t possibly say yes or no. Would Pierre be all that we lose, or would prospects go along with Pierre? What pitcher would we be getting back? I would rather keep Pierre than get Arroyo, frankly.
u wouldnt want arroyo??
he;d be a GREAT back end starter..
didnt he set the record last year for consectuive starts of going 7+ innings and giving up 3 ER or less in every start??
if we get arroyo it’d be great… oliver perez.. not so much
I Hate Arroyo
…His stupid leg kick makes me want to strangle him. I said here during the season that it is like something out of a Monty Python Ministry of Silly Walks sketch.
Man with the annoying leg kick racks up 200+ IP for each of the past five seasons?
by 68elcamino427 on Dec 6, 2009 9:50 PM PST up reply actions
plus he has had to pitch in cincinattis bandbox half the time
in his last 4 seasons..
if it's Arroyo, then
YES! (assuming we don’t have to give up much more than Pierre). If it’s Perez, I will be sure to wear my “Pierrewood” shirt throughout the entire season- and I’m not just talking about games I attend!
My guess, if this does come to pass, is that it’ll be someone in between. No idea who, though.
Harang – yay
Arroyo – yay
Millwood – eh
Ol. Perez – no way
Dontrelle – punch Dombrowski in the balls
by Eric Stephen on Dec 6, 2009 11:25 PM PST via mobile reply actions
why milwood eh?
i think hes a YAY.. because when hes pitching for a contract hes real good…
and what is he doing next year.. pitching for a contract… i think he is the best of the 5 listed..
I would take Harang first, easily, of the five. And probably Arroyo to, if only because he is a couple of years younger.
I haven’t ever been a fan of Millwood. Despite his good ERA last year, he wasn’t very good (4.89 ERA, 5.01 x-FIP). He has had two crazy luck years the last two seasons, in both directions:
2008: 5.07 ERA, 4.06 FIP
2009: 3.67 ERA, 4.89 FIP
I wouldn’t mind Millwood, but I wouldn’t be that excited either. Actually, though, since it would be for Pierre I could easily talk myself into that deal.
I'm hearing Pierre-to-Pirates rumors
Supposedly, we want Duke or Maholm in return, and the Bucs want money and prospect(s).
maybe juan pierre was involved
and it was a 3 team deal…
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NL West Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
San Diego
|
76 | 59 | .562 | 0 | Lost 10 |
|
San Francisco
|
76 | 61 | .554 | 1 | Won 2 |
|
Colorado
|
72 | 64 | .529 | 4.5 | Won 3 |
|
Los Angeles
|
69 | 68 | .503 | 8 | Lost 2 |
|
Arizona
|
56 | 81 | .408 | 21 | Lost 2 |
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