Broxton - closer or poser?

by meercatjohn on Feb 12, 2009 7:44 PM PST Comment 19 comments

Over at DT Jon spent all that time writing up expectations for the locks on the roster , but the bulk of the comments focused on Broxton bashing and Broxton support. It was a little surprising given how weak those locks look to me but for whatever reason Broxton was the lightening rod of the discussion.

We already voted Broxton as our best RH setup man. Does he have what it takes to move from kick ass setup man to a dominant closer, or is he missing the closer gene? He reminds me a little of Duane Ward a huge relief pitcher in the late 80's who was a great setup guy who got a few saves every year and then became the de-facto closer at age 29. He only had the one brilliant year as the main closer but then broke down and was out of baseball one year later. My only comparison to Ward is that they were both huge, hard throwing RHP relief pitchers who started out as great setup men before getting the chance to be the closer. Broxton is a few years younger then Ward at the same point in their careers and hasn't thrown the innings that Ward did as a setup guy. I don't think he'll break down like Ward and hopefully he'll do what Ward did in his first year as closer which was an all-star and World Championship season.

I don't want to influence anyone, I'm curious to know what you all think before Eric and I tell you what we think.

Poll

What are the expectations for Broxton as our Closer

Never miss a beat - 30/45 saves, nerves of steel

100 votes

Some hits and misses but mostly hits 20-30 saves but we are never comfortable when he comes in

73 votes

Ends up in a job share with someone else 15-25 saves

10 votes

Loses Job by mid-season, Matt Stairs haunts his dreams

10 votes

None of the above

5 votes

198 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs | Comment 19 comments

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Comments

I honestly think whether we sign Manny or not

will matter when it comes to number of saves Broxton gets.

by trainwreck84 on Feb 12, 2009 8:29 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Probably not too much

Only 3 guys got 40 saves in the NL last year, Jose Valverde, Brad Lidge, and Brian Wilson. The Giants were 15 in the NL in runs, the Astros were 11th, and the Phillies were 2nd. The Phillies won 92 games, the Astros 86, and the Giants 72. The distribution seems fairly evenly spread among good and bad teams and high and low scoring teams, I don’t think it makes much of a difference whether Manny is on the team.

by Brendan Scolari on Feb 12, 2009 9:42 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I think he wilk have some mess ups

but we will overall be confident in him.

by trainwreck84 on Feb 12, 2009 8:31 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Closer

For sure

by Brendan Scolari on Feb 12, 2009 9:24 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Unlike Rob

I missed all the games that he screwed up, except that Giants game, so I feel that he is lights out. Mongo got gas. The only uncomfortable people I saw on the field were the batters.

by Bob Hendley on Feb 12, 2009 10:18 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Good solid closer

To expect Saito or Gagne is a little much

by kensai on Feb 12, 2009 10:31 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

re:

The idea that expecting Saito is to high a standard just cracks me up. It was only three years that this guy was a joke during spring training. Now he’s a standard that can’t be touched. Whenever we write off players who on the surface appear to be a waste of a NRI, I’ll always think of the Saito’s and Wilson Alveraz’s of our past.

They may not happen often but boy when they do, they really shine.

by meercatjohn on Feb 13, 2009 11:02 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I think he can be as good as Saito.

He was better than Saito the last two years.

by Brendan Scolari on Feb 13, 2009 5:15 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

re:

2008 sure, 2007? Bring the ammo.

by meercatjohn on Feb 13, 2009 5:44 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Okay

http://www.truebluela.com/2009/1/12/718293/jonathan-broxton-closer

2007:
Broxton: 82 IP, 2.75 x-FiP
Saito: 64.1 IP, 2.82 x-FIP

by Brendan Scolari on Feb 13, 2009 7:06 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

re:

How come you use x-FiP when defending Broxton and ignore it when celebrating how good Beimel has been? Do you pick and choose the stat that supports your case?

Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen

by Phil Gurnee on Feb 15, 2009 4:03 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

When did I ignore the stat for Beimel?

Or even bring up any statistical arguement about Beimel? Are you sure you’re not thinking of someone else?

Anyway, I like x-FIP in all cases, although Beimel has outperformed his x-FIP the last couple years, which may be a case of just luck..

But to address the original topic, would you agree then that Broxton has pitched better than Saito the last couple of years?

by Brendan Scolari on Feb 15, 2009 5:24 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

re:

Regarding Beimel:
"
Beimel!!!!!

I voted for him, had to. He looks like he deserves it statistically, and he’s the only one listed I’ve ever seen pitch. Okay, I’ve seen Tom Martin a few times but come on now.

by bablue on Feb 13, 2009 12:33 AM PST reply reply actions actions 0 recs
"

The only statistic that shows Beimel in a good light is his ERA. As you noted he has totally outperformed his x-FIP, so when you said “he deserves it statistically” I figured you were basing it on ERA and not peripherals.

As far as Broxton goes I will give you 2008, 2007 is still open for question.I You use x-FIP but my main source is Baseball HQ and the XERA for Broxton in 2007 was 3.00 with a BPV of 137. Saito in 2007 was 2.67 with a BPV of 192.

To use Beimel as an example of XERA, his ERA the last three years has been 2.96, 3.88, 2.02. This XERA for those three years has been 4.26, 4.82, and 4.98. You don’t get much luckier then Joe Beimel. The idea he’s our LH setup man makes me ill.
From Baseball Forecaster:
“Continues to out-pitch BPI, in part by 103-game no-HR streak. Low usage keeps fantasy impact negligible should this craziness continue. It won’t. Doubling his ERA isn’t even going out on much of a limb.”

Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen

by Phil Gurnee on Feb 15, 2009 6:52 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Hmm ok.

I was just going by the chart Eric had when I said that, I know Beimel’s peripherals aren’t very good. I don’t think its a big deal if he deserves it or not, whenever you leave it up to a fan vote it’s more of a popularity contest anyways. But if Beimel has way outperformed his xERA for 3 straight years, isn’t it just possible that he will continue to do so? This sort of thing is not unprecented, LOOGY’s and knuckleballers often have lower than expected BABIP’s. Also, there’s guys like Javier Vasquez who consistently underperform their peripherals, so I would assume its possible to do the reverse, although it is rare. There’s no way Beimel is as good as his ERA last year (much of it has to do with coming to face just one batter, which deflates ERA) but I don’t think he’s a replacement level guy. Just my opinion.

As for Broxton, all I have is the general stats because I don’t subscribe to Baseball HQ. But from what I can see he looks better to me. I guess it doesn’t really matter either way; both Saito and Broxton are awesome and we’ve been pretty lucky to have them. But I think Broxton can be as good as Saito, he might have the best stuff in the majors.

by Brendan Scolari on Feb 16, 2009 1:30 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs