Ned shortchanges future as he builds for today
by meercatjohn on Feb 20, 2009 1:09 PM PST
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PrintNed brings in another proven veteran leader as they inked Orlando Hudson to a contract today. Ken Gurnick has the details. The base is cheap but the incentives could add up to $8 Million so we need to see how the incentives are structured.
Until last year Orlando Hudson was considered the premier defensive 2nd baseman in baseball. Last year, not so much. I'm going to miss seeing how DeWitt would have played out as a 2nd baseman and I'm going to miss the excitement on draft day as our number one pick (17th overall) now belongs to our chief rivals.
Trying to look on the bright side of losing the pick. we can be thankful that Logan White does not make the Diamondback picks. Also they are low on money so who knows if they can even afford to sign two number one picks.
Waiting for Ned and Joe to talk about how this will impact the team while D Lowe looks longingly back West after hearing that Hudson will be playing 2nd base. In 2007 I'd been giddy to know Hudson was going to be our 2nd baseman in 2009. Now I'm hopeful he can get back to his 2007 defensive level while maintaining his solid offensive performance for a 2nd baseman. I'll let Eric run the numbers when he gets a chance but the team does look better today then it did yesterday.
The future however looks worse as our farm system could really use that number one pick. This is a play for the current and it better pan out. Looking for more plus since Hudson was a Type A this year, he could easily be a type A next year and maybe we get a number one back.
Expect Abreu to be given away cheaply. That will be the real crime here if it happens.
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The next hurdle
will be to find out whom gets removed from the 40-man roster once Manny is signed. The 40-man roster is full once the O-Dog becomes official.
This is Ned putting all his chips to the table in the final year of his contract.
I can reconcile losing the draft pick, but I hope Logan White doesn’t leave over this.
We need to keep Abreu
for the sole reason that last year I stated my case for wanting to sign Hudson on the premise that we would see an article on how Don Mattingly instructing his middle infielders how to hit. The article would feature a picture of Mattingly, Hudson, and Abreu, with the headline: “Tony, Orlando, and Don.”
DeWitt needs to play every day
If the team wants DeWitt to max out his future, they need to get him playing time. He won’t get that as a backup IF… do they send him down?
DeWitt could use another year in AAA.
Let’s face it. He was good or horrible last year and he not a MLB 2nd baseman yet. Let him get a full year in a hitters league at 2nd or 3rd. He can still be a replacement in case of injury to Blake or Hudson (35 and 31 years old). I’m really high on DeWitt and I think he’ll be a solid hitter one day, but he’s not quite there yet.
DeWitt is arguably better than Blake now.
by Chad Moriyama on Feb 20, 2009 2:04 PM PST up reply actions
Well here is my argument...
Blake hit more home runs in far less AB’s than DeWitt and had a higher slugging %. I think DeWitt’s higher OBP has a little to do with him getting intentionally walked and pitched around when he was batting 8th for awhile. I like knowing what a player can do. You can set your watch to Casey Blake because he does the same thing every year. .270-.280 avg, 16-20 HR, about 70 RBI. We have no idea what DeWitt can do over a whole season. Maybe he’ll hit .280 maybe he’ll hit .222. We don’t know. What’s the rush? Give him a season at 3rd in AAA and see what happens. He’s only 23 and clearly has the talent, but this team already has too many question marks. I’m glad Blake is coming back because it’s one thing I don’t have to worry about.
re:
I worry about a 36 year old who was crap in Sept? I worry less knowing DeWitt can now step in and play 3rd base if Blake craters.
re:
Blake DeWitt was crap in June and July and was terrible in the postseason. He only hit home runs in two months of the season. Like alot of young players he’s very streaky. Casey had a bad Sept, but at least he still hit some homers. Look, ultimately I agree with you. I thought Blake cost to much for what you get, but it’s not my money. I think that eventually Dewitt will be a better player, but he is not one quite yet. Just for this year I would rather have Blake at 3rd and Hudson at 2nd. I would bet that one of those two will be injured at some point in the season and we’ll see DeWitt up again.
I think DeWitt’s higher OBP has a little to do with him getting intentionally walked and pitched around when he was batting 8th for awhile.
Blake DeWitt only had 10 walks batting 8th in 83 PA, and didn’t bat 8th any time after July 20.
Most of his walks came while batting 7th (28 in 230 PA). However, Angel Berroa was batting 8th most of those times, so that’s like a pitcher batting behind you I guess.
by Eric Stephen on Feb 20, 2009 4:52 PM PST up reply actions
Blake vs Blake
Casey Blake projects to about a .330 wOBA this year, Blake DeWitt to a .320ish bit with upside to be about as good as Casey. Orlanso Hudson is in the same upper .330s low .340s range.
I have to believe that DeWitt is the better defender at this stage of his career.
Mind you value wise neither Blake nor Hudson’s deals are bad, but the fact that they’re taking playing time away from players who are projected to put up the same numbers with higher upside IS bad.
Ned just gave up a draft pick and $3.5 million dollars for a guy who is only slightly better than Blake DeWitt’s upside.
You know what? Fuck you Sports Gods, fuck you.
Of course you pay more for a known quantity
Just that it rarely is worth as much as Ned ends up paying to his type of players.
by Chad Moriyama on Feb 20, 2009 7:45 PM PST up reply actions
Now
would be a good time to sign Juan Cruz since we can’t lose a our number one pick anymore:)
I’d actually love us to go after Ben Sheets now, sign him for next year to replace Schmidt. No number one to worry about anymore. I just can’t get off that wagon.
leaning toward optimism
Losing a first-round pick sounds bad at first, but really, baseball drafts are so enigmatic that who’s to say we’re really missing out much @ #17? I heard Cole Hamels, Brad Lidge, and Roy Halladay were drafted #17, but so was Ben Diggins, Daniel Denham, Rick Asadoorian, John Curtice, and Todd Noel. This isn’t football or basketball where the drop-off between rounds is especially steep.
Logan White is one of the best
Not all draft picks are created equally and not all draft-ors are equally skilled at identifying talent.
Some quick notes on Hudson
As usual for a switch hitter one side is favored. Luckily for him and us he is 100 OPS points better hitting from the left side where he will get the majority of his at bats. Will Torre use Loretta against the LHP and how will that effect his incentives if he’s platooned? I mean a 700 OPS against LHP is not exactly going to get it done.
DeWitt Gets Loneyed?
So we get Hudson to replace him, although Hudson will presumably outdo Nomar in 2007.
I missed out on the community projection for DeWitt, but I’m not so optimistic. Consider his 2008 ML platoon splits, which show 17 BB in 107 PA vs LHP. That is probably a fluke, and a .270/.330/.400 line might be a reasonable ML projection. Defensively, he was solid at third and pretty good at second. I think Hudson would outperform DeWitt at this point. Overall, though, DeWitt would probably be better than Blake.
I can almost understand what Colletti was doing here – except for signing Casey Blake for three years. Furcal looked like more of a possibility, and he would benefit the team if he played. The same with Hudson, and he’s a pretty good bargain to pick up, provided he didn’t lose abilty with injury. Gurnick speculates moving Blake to LF, which seems random, but fielding statistics show that he played a pretty decent right field (2005-2007). Torre pretty much does what he wants, so I guess we’ll wait and see.
Thanks to the depressed market...
Hudson sort of fell into our laps, in a way. Knowing what we know now, I don’t think the Dodgers would have signed Casey Blake. Hudson was avoided because it was thought he would cost much more than Blake — for instance — both annually and by contract length.
by Eric Stephen on Feb 20, 2009 4:27 PM PST up reply actions
This makes sense
In terms of projections Hudson and Blake are pretty interchangeable, although Hudson plays the higher value position.
I still don’t like this signing.
You know what? Fuck you Sports Gods, fuck you.
For El Lay Dave
Per the LA Times article on O-Dog, Hudson’s agent is Greg Genske, the same agent as Brad Penny and CC Sabathia, among others.
I’m not sure if you got an answer to that question yet.
Ned
Colletti must be paying attention to our all-time lineup and wants to relive the glory days of switch-hitting middle infielders batting 1/2.
So what about that big guy in LF
This all seems like a distraction.
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