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Enjoy Pastrami With The Penguin!

As part of the Dodgers' annual Community Caravan, many past and current Dodgers will be at Canter's Deli in Los Angeles. If you show up Wednesday between 12:30 and 1:30, you might get to order from or get served your lunch by James Loney, Russell Martin, Delwyn Young, James McDonald, Mark Loretta, Bobby Castillo, Kenny Landreaux, Ron Cey, or "Sweet Lou" Johnson.


Canter’s Delicatessen and Restaurant
419 North Fairfax Ave
Los Angeles , CA 90036

9 months ago Img_0108_tiny Eric Stephen 2 comments 0 recs  | 

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Read More: events, Russell Martin (C - LOS), James Loney (1B - LOS), Delwyn Young (2B - PIT), James McDonald (P - LOS), Mark Loretta (2B - LOS), Los Angeles Dodgers

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Just testing my account. But now I’m hungry, and way too far from LA. Feel like I’m among old friends.

by Gen3blu on Feb 4, 2009 8:51 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

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Nothing like a nice comeback to wash away the sorrow of a disappointing loss. The Dodgers win probability actually never got below 25% in yesterday's contest. The biggest win probability swing in the Phillies favor was on Ryan Howard's homerun when their odds of winning jumped from 48.2% to 59.7%. The Dodgers two biggest win probability shifts obviously came in the bottom of the 8th inning. They entered the inning witha 41.1% chance of winning, and got their odds up to 49.6% when Russell Martin came to the plate and reached on an error by Chase Utley which bumped their win expectancy to 61.0%. But the biggest jump came on Andre Ethier's bases loaded walk, the Dodgers win expectancy went from 63.5% to 87.4%. Those two at bats had a leverage indez above 5, meaning they were more than five times as important as an average at bat. The MVP of the gam (per win probability) was easily Pedro Martinez, whose .450 win probability added was more than double the next closest player, Vicente Padilla with .207 WPA. Ethier (.157), Martin (.152), and Thome (.141) also made key contributions for the Dodgers. The Least Valuable Player was Matt Kemp, whose -.246 was more than twice as bad as any other Dodger. Of course 57% of his negative contribution came on his stikeout in the 8th inning, and whiffing against a guy with more than a strikeout per inning in 2009 is nothing to be ashamed of. Finally, as Phil said in the recap below the Dodgers odds of winning the series are now 51.9%. That's not too bad all things considered.

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Here's the win probability chart for Game 1 of the NLCS. There were some big shifts in this game, with the biggest being Carlos Ruiz's three run bomb that cut the Dodgers' odds of winning in half (from 50.7% to 25.2%). Ryan Howard's double later in the inning that put the Phillies up 5-1 cut the Dodgers' odds in half again (from 25.2% to 11.2%). The Dodgers showed resiliency, raising their odds up to 46.5% after a 6th inning Ronnie Belliard single put runners on first and second with one out and the Dodgers down a run, but they were never again favored to win the game. The Dodgers had some life until Raul Ibanez's three run blast cut their win expectancy from 17.4% to a mere 3.8%. The final blow was when Casey Blake grounded into a double play in the bottom of the 9th, cutting the Dodgers odds from 19.1% to 1.6%. The most valuable player (using win probability) was Carlos Ruiz, who had .275 win probability added. He was closely followed by Chan Ho's .240 WPA, and the two most valuable Dodgers were James Loney (.193) and Andre Ethier (.176). Five other Phillies had at least .060 WPA but no other Dodgers did. Ultimately the game could have gone either way. The Dodgers had more baserunners than the Phillies but the Phils happened to hit homeruns in the only innings where more than one of their batters reached base. It was a tough loss but there's no reason to lose hope.

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