Matt Kemp Community Projections

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Next up is the player who many consider to have the highest upside of any homegrown Dodger.  Here is the latest analysis from Baseball HQ on Matt Kemp

3/3/2009 - Kemp signs 1-year deal with LA... The Dodgers came to terms with OF’er Matt Kemp on Monday. Kemp is coming off his first full season with the Dodgers, a solid season but perhaps not as spectacular as some had hoped. Going into the 2009 season Kemp is expected to continue his recent growth, and increase his power numbers to put them on par with his speed production. The question is are there reasons to believe that growth will occur, and how much can we expect this year.

Year  AB  R  HR RBI SB  BA Slg bb% ct%  PX xBA 
==== === === == === == === === === === === ===
2006 154  30  7  23  6 253 448  6% 66% 138 246 
2007 292  47 10  42 10 342 521  5% 77% 109 258 
2008 606  93 18  76 35 290 459  7% 75% 119 275

There are minor, positive signs in his skills set. His PX number did increase from 2007 to 2008, even if it didn’t immediately translate into a higher Slg% and more HR’s given the doubling of AB’s. Also, even though his ct% dropped slightly, his 1H/2H splits were 71%/78%, which suggests that he was adapting well in his first full season and the potential for further growth exists. And all of this occurred while he was able to take more advantage of his speed numbers, making him a serious threat in all of the hitting categories. Sometimes we see those with the potential for more power ignore the speed side of their skills in their effort to produce more HR’s and RBI’s. That does not appear to be the case with Kemp. Expect continued growth at minimum, and the potential for a breakout season definitely exists here.

My Projection - 304/349/501 - 26 Home Runs