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Around SBN: Which Players Will Join The 3,000-Hit Club?

Andre Ethier Community Projections

If you haven't posted your thoughts for the following Dodger projections, take a moment to participate by clicking on the True Blue Community Projections and let us know what you think the future holds for 2009.

Andre exploded after July 31st putting up a .991 OPS in the 2nd half. On July 31st Andre had an OPS of .780 and would end the year with an OPS of of .880. At age 27, Andre should be hitting his career peaks as he goes into camp with RF all his own for the first time since showing up on May 2nd, 2006.

Baseball HQ Analysis:

2/24/2009 -

LIMA Plan Targets: In the Baseball Forecaster, Brandon Kruse points out Andre Ethier's (RF/LF, LA) "terrific growth trends in PX [95-106-129], hr/f [8%-10%-14%], and xBA [.267-.275-.311]." Interestingly, Ethier doesn't hit many FB and has even trended down in that metric (37%-36%-32%), although 2008's low level was dragged down by what appears to be a fluky 26% FB% in the second half. However, Ethier does hit a large number of LD, 22%-18%-27% over the past three seasons -- again, the 2008 LD rate was pumped up by a 30% LD% in the second half, which should regress. Still, as pointed out in regards to David Wright, HR can come off LD in addition to FB, so don't discount Ethier just because of his low FB%. He has excellent BPIs and is at the magical age 27; invest.

Andre Ethier Projections

THT BP HQl
Avg
.300 .293 .300
OBP .370 .369 .367
SLug% .482 .465 .525

My projection: .298/.367.493

What yours?

 

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mr. ethier

.304/.377/.497. i don’t usually get this excited about a player entering his prime, but i think andre has a higher ceiling than people give him credit for. i’m not sure he can improve on last year’s power numbers like HQI projects, but hopefully he’ll at least be able to slug .470 and up.

by murray805 on Mar 16, 2009 10:09 AM PDT reply actions  

re:

Welcome to True Blue, thanks for joining and taking the time to post your projections. Did you find us via Yahoo?

by meercatjohn on Mar 16, 2009 10:25 AM PDT up reply actions  

805?

Murray, are you by chance from San Diego? I lived there for ~14 years but recently moved.

by Eric Stephen on Mar 16, 2009 10:38 AM PDT up reply actions  

I'm sure this would level off over more PA

But in the 95 PA over 20 games in which he batted 2nd in front of Manny, Ethier hit .425/.505/.688.

Over the same period (August 28 – September 21), Manny hit .420/.515/.901!!! What great production from the 2/3 spots.

Over that period, the Dodgers went 16-7, and went from down 3 games to up 2.5 on Arizona.

by Eric Stephen on Mar 16, 2009 10:49 AM PDT reply actions  

300/375/470

He might do it, but his hitting indicators just don’t show a substantial likelihood of power. Do HRs come from LDs? Sure. But not really. HQI knows it too, but I guess they thought they needed to say something to justify their huge SLG. They would have been better off saying “we think he’ll get lucky this year.” Which he well may do.

by Paul Scott on Mar 16, 2009 4:07 PM PDT reply actions  

.325 / .410 / .480

by kretz on Mar 16, 2009 8:47 PM PDT reply actions  

i like hQI, ever the optomist.

by Bluetrain on Mar 17, 2009 4:44 AM PDT reply actions  

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2012 Dodgers Payroll

Italics denote estimates
Pos No Player 2012 Salary
C 17 Ellis $500,000 team control
1B 7 Loney $6,375,000
2B 14 Ellis $2,500,000
3B 5 Uribe $8,000,000
SS 9 Gordon $485,000 team control
LF 21 Rivera $4,000,000
CF 27 Kemp $10,000,000
RF 16 Ethier $10,950,000

IF/OF 6 Hairston $2,250,000
OF 10 Gwynn $850,000
2B/3B 3 Kennedy $800,000
C 18 Treanor $850,000
IF 12 Sellers $485,000 team control

SP 22 Kershaw $8,500,000 arb
SP 58 Billingsley $9,000,000
SP 29 Lilly $12,000,000
SP 37 Capuano $3,000,000
SP 44
Harang $3,000,000

CL 54 Guerra $485,000 team control
RHP 74
Jansen $500,000 team control
RHP 55 Guerrier $4,750,000
RHP Coffey $1,000,000
RHP 66 MacDougal $650,000
LHP 57 Elbert $485,000 team control
RHP 36
Hawksworth $500,000 team control

TJ 41 De La Rosa $485,000 team control



Manny $8,087,432 deferred


Andruw $3,375,000 deferred


Pierre $3,050,000 deferred
Furcal $3,000,000 deferred
Kuroda $2,000,000 deferred
Garland $1,500,000 option buyout
Blake $1,250,000 option buyout

Totals
$114,662,432

For more detailed information, click here.

Players on 40-man roster used as roster
fillers until moves are made.

Current 40-man roster count: 40
(not including Belisario)

2012 Non-Roster Invitees

No Player Age*
63 Jose Ascanio rhp
27
61 Alberto Castillo lhp
36
60 Matt Chico lhp
29
35 John Grabow lhp
33
59 Angel Guzman rhp
30
47 Wil Ledezma lhp
31
72 Shane Lindsay rhp
27
62 Fernando Nieve rhp 29
73 Scott Rice lhp 30
70 Will Savage rhp
27
71 Ryan Tucker rhp
25

30 Josh Bard c 34
82 Griff Erickson c 24
81 Matt Wallachc 26
67 Jeff Baisley 3b/1b 29
62 Luis Cruz ss/2b 28
33 Josh Fields 3b 29
64 Lance Zawadzki if 27
56 Cory Sullivan of 32

*Age on June 30, 2012

NRI count: 19

For more info, click here.


Manager

Eric___ned___reporters_2011_trade_deadline_small Eric Stephen

Editors

100_1427_small Phil Gurnee

Dgy_small David Young

Hanauma_bay_small Chad Moriyama

2501_small Michael White

Raptors_small Brandon Lennox