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The Joker is Wild

Many of the Dodger blogs have been discussing the 5th starter spot and with good reason as the candidates even before they threw a pitch this spring were less then inspiring.  A  Dodger Thought commentator posted what he thought were the contenders for the 5th spot for the 29 teams in an attempt to show how lousy many teams 5th starters are and that we are in the same boat as most teams.  It was a good effort but I don't think it applies to the Los Angeles Dodgers situation.

We are expected to be the class of the NL so if we are going to compare 5th starters lets compare our possible solutions to the other teams who are expected to compete for the World Championship not the KC Royals of our world. Arizona is at least even with us when it comes to talent as we try to retain control of our Divisional Title and one simple game might end up seperating us at the end of the season, so I don't think we can be very cavaliar about our pitching depth.

When you look at the contending teams you see quite a bit of talent and some downright studly talent. Using the Depth Chart from Baseball HQ

NYY - Chamberlain
Bos - Buchholz, Masterson, Penny, or Smoltz
TB - Price or Neiman
Clev - Pavano or Slowly
CWS - Colon or Poreda
Det - Robertson or Porcello(Kershaw2008)
LAA - Moseley, Adenhart, and Escobar in two months
SEA - Morrow, Smith, or Olson
NYM - Livan Hernandez or Freddy Garcia
PHI - Park or Kendrick or Happ
FLO - Andrew Miller
ATL - Glavine or Hanson
CHI - Marshall, Heilman, or Samardzija
MIL - Looper
ST - Piniero
ARI - Scherzer
LAD - Schmidt, Vargas, Milton, Estes, McDonald, Stults

If it wasn't for James McDonald our choices would be just as bad as the Mets, Phillies, Cardinals, White Sox, and Indians. Teams like the Yankee's, Boston, TB, ARI, SEA, ATL, and the Tigers all have potential aces vying for the 5th spot. Chamberlain, Price, Buchholz, Porcello,  Scherzer,  Hanson, and Morrow are some of the brightest arms in baseball. At the next level are Masterson, A Miller, Adenhart, Poreda, Neiman, Samardzija, and our McDonald. James McDonald  might be the only solution we have who could be better then 5th spot dreck.

Since this team is going for it this year, it would seem that Frank might want to stretch the wallet one more time and see if Pedro has something left to give. Ned has brought in some lousy options in Milton, Estes, and Vargas. This is just an opinion but I think we have as much chance of getting something out of Schmidt that the White Sox have of getting something out of Colon, and I don't think to many of us would be counting on much from Colon.

Now it is true that whoever is pitching in the fifth spot in April is not as important as who is taking that turn come July but I'd rather start out with better options so by the time we hit July we have found someone who is doing the job for a team expected to contend. Sure we might be able to win the pennant without a solid 5th starter but do you want to bet that Justin Upton doesn't break out, that Scherzer goes Dreifort,  that Chris Young isn't what BP thinks he is? Normally I'd say yes, I'd gamble on McDonald being able to do the job, but this year  we have a joker in the deck. Pedro is available and available for what I'd call cheap. He's cheap because he's been hurt and wasn't very good in 2008. We don't need vintage Pedro we just need a Maddux like 5 innings from him per start. Can he give us that? I don't know but I want to find out.

If Pedro is not the option then I'd turn to McDonald and Stults but I'd hate to have them as the first option when Schmidt falters because there is no one behind them.

The Dodgers need a 5th starter and Pedro needs somewhere to pitch. Lets use this joker to trump the boys to the East.

Pedromdodger_medium

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I'd take Pedro on a cheap one year deal for sure.

But I do think its still possible that Schmidt contributes in a meaningful way. Otherwise, yes, McDonald should be the guy.

But aren’t you glad we signed Wolf now? Otherwise we’d have to pick two of these guys to be in the Opening Day rotation.

by Brendan Scolari on Mar 17, 2009 10:52 AM PDT reply actions  

re:

I’m leaning your way but the worry is he won’t be able to pitch 150 innings or will put up a 4.80 ERA. If he puts up 150+ innings of 4.00 – 4.40 ERA then it was a good call. I was on board Wolf when we signed him in 2007, having been burned by that I’m still leary.

by meercatjohn on Mar 17, 2009 12:15 PM PDT up reply actions  

Even 150 innings or so of 4.80 ERA

is a lot better than what some of these guys might put up. Do you really think Weaver or Milton will have ERA’s below 5.50 as full-time starters?

Wolf should at least give us a chance to win every time he pitches, with the potential to be somewhat good even. Now hopefully Schmidt can pitch decently again or McDonald gets plugged into the rotation. I really don’t want to see Vargas/Milton/Weaver/Estes pitching meaningful innings if possible.

by Brendan Scolari on Mar 17, 2009 5:42 PM PDT up reply actions  

I like McDonald for the 5 spot

Your point about potential aces vying for some fifth starting jobs is well taken, and with that the Dodgers should follow suit and give the job to McDonald (even if he doesn’t project to be a Rick Porcello.)

I think comparing McDonald with Andrew Miller is a pretty good comp. Really liked Miller coming out of UNC and his spot starts for Detroit, haven’t followed him much since his move to the Marlins though.

by Michael White on Mar 17, 2009 11:02 AM PDT reply actions  

re:

A Miller has not come close to reaching the potential the Tigers saw when they picked him instead of Kershaw.

by meercatjohn on Mar 17, 2009 12:10 PM PDT up reply actions  

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Pos No Player 2012 Salary
C 17 Ellis $490,000
1B 7 Loney $6,375,000
2B 14 Ellis $2,500,000
3B 5 Uribe $8,000,000
SS 9 Gordon $485,000
LF 23 Abreu $401,311
CF 27 Kemp $10,000,000
RF 16 Ethier $10,950,000

OF 10 Gwynn $850,000
IF 12 Sellers $481,000
OF/1B 33 Van Slyke $388,197
2B/3B 3 Kennedy $800,000
C 18 Treanor $850,000

SP 22 Kershaw $6,000,000
SP 58 Billingsley $9,000,000
SP 29 Lilly $12,000,000
SP 44
Harang $3,000,000
SP 35 Capuano $3,000,000

CL 74
Jansen $491,000
RHP 52 Lindblom $483,000
RHP 51 Belisario $414,426
RHP 54 Guerra $488,000
RHP 28
Wright $900,000
LHP 57 Elbert $488,500
RHP 60 Coffey $1,000,000

DL 55 Guerrier $4,750,000
DL 6 Hairston $2,250,000
DL 21 Rivera $4,000,000
60DL 36 Hawksworth $495,000
60DL 41 De La Rosa $485,000

AAA 13 DeJesus $86,648
AA 50 Eovaldi $7,885
AAA 56 Antonini $7,869



Manny $8,087,432 deferred


Andruw $3,375,000 deferred


Pierre $3,050,000 deferred
Furcal $3,000,000 deferred
Kuroda $2,000,000 deferred
Garland $1,500,000 option buyout
Blake $1,250,000 option buyout
DFA 66 MacDougal $650,000

Totals
$114,830,268

For more detailed information, click here.

Current 40-man roster count: 42
(incl. De La Rosa & Hawksworth)

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