Dodgers Optimized Lineup

It’s usually whoever the fifth best hitter is. Sometimes the 4th best hitter if he’s extremely dependent on HRs for his value. Since that’s not Furcal at all, he probably should be lower – fifth or sixth so his SBs are productive in front of singles hitters.

Taking the projections listed and doing (1.75*OBP + SLG)/3 to create a wOBA like number, we get the hitters ranked in this order:

.407 Manny
.370 Ethier
.367 Martin
.365 Kemp
.351 Loney
.347 Furcal
.337 Blake
.335 Hudson

Manny’s obviously the best hitter. Then we need two of Ethier/Martin/Kemp. Martin is the most OBP dependent for his value and doesn’t hit many HRs. He’ll lead off. Manny probably fits best fourth, so let’s put Ethier second for his OBP, although Kemp’s not a bad option, either.

Kemp then goes fifth, as the next best hitter, and Loney third. Loney’s not a great option for the third spot, as he’s not a big HR guy, but Furcal’s even worse and nobody else is good enough to bat that high. Another nice thing about putting kemp fifth is that his steals are valuable in front of the high contact Furcal. After Furcal comes Blake, who’s power will hopefully clear off any baserunner before the pitcher bats. Finally, Hudson’s at the bottom of the lineup, who’s OBP is quite useful in front of the top of the lineup and who’s lack of SLG doesn’t matter as much coming after the pitcher.

Things, of course, might look different with a different projection system. Take CHONE, for example, with the hitters ranked by runs per 150 games:

35 Ramirez
11 Ethier
9 Martin
8 Kemp
4 Loney
-2 Furcal
-3 Hudson
-3 Blake

Well, pretty similar ranking, actually, except that Furcal is closer to Hudson and Blake than Loney.