Pitching Projections for the Dynamic Duo
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Many pundits have put us on the top of the West because we signed Manny but the season really hinges on Chad Billingsley and Clayton Kershaw. As Eric notes in his story about our dynamic duo they are quite special. To our dismay we have seen in the battle for the 5th spot that quality starting pitching depth is a problem for this team. They will need healthy and above average productive performances from the best right/lefty home grown combination since Bob Welch/Fernando in 1981 to win the West.
Clayton Kershaw last year had the 15th best season ever for a 20 year old or younger LHP since 1947 using ERA+ as the metric. Here is what the best LH pitchers have done at the age of 21 . For all the heat Dontrille Willis takes these days he was very good in 2003 at the age of 21. Scott Kazmir at the age of 21 in 2005 was the latest to show what can be accomplished. CC Sabatthia threw over 200 inings but only posted a 100 ERA+.
On Tuesday Clayton Kershaw looked as good as we've ever seen him. Mixing his fastball ball with Uncle Charlie he made the Royals look like boys. Not many change ups so the question is, what can he accomplish in 2009 as a two pitch pitcher? Can he go Vida Blue? Fernando? No way, but he might be able to replicate or better what Kazmir did in 2005 when he posted a 116 ERA+ in 186 innings.
Chad Billingsley ascension into our ace has been addressed but lets take one more look at what he's accomplished at the age of 23 in the world of young LA Dodger hurlers. Only Fernando has ever had two plus 135 ERA+ seasons by the age of 25 and Chad has already done it twice by the age of 23. As you can see from this list of the best seasons ever age 25 and under many have done it once but only two of our boys have ever done it twice. This list includes Fernando(20)(24), Astacio(22), Welch(21), Valdez(23), Pena(25), and Singer(25). Pena also has a seasonn of 131 ERA+ ball at the age of 24. Don Drysdale bridged Brooklyn and LA so he would be join Chad and Fernando on this list if we included his age 20 season in Brooklyn in 1957. Here's to hoping that Chad breaks the tie with Fernando this season and becomes the all - time best Dodger pitcher age 25 and less. Of course whatever he does, Clayton may just do him one better.
So what does the projection world think they will do. Below is what Baseball HQ had to say
Clayton Kershaw - Given age and inexperience, a remarkable debut. A prospect right out of Central Casting: elit Dom, GB tilt, Ctl settled as year went on. Only injuries can keep him from greatness.
Chad Billingsley - As solid a profile as one could want from a 24-yr old starter. Consistent growth in all areas reduces risk; 2H skills spike a great sign. Borderline Ctl is the only real qualm. It's a small one. UP: 20 W, sub-3.00 ERA, Cy.
| Chad Billingsley |
| THT | BP | HQ | |
| ERA |
3.75 | 3.51 | 3.28 |
| WHIP | 1.30 | 1.34 | |
| IP | 174 | 180 | 203 |
| K | 161 | 172 | 193 |
| Clayton Kershaw |
| THT | BP | HQ | |
| ERA |
4.30 | 3.98 | 3.78 |
| WHIP | 1.39 | 1.27 | |
| IP | 150 | 155 | 174 |
| K | 142 | 142 | 161 |
These projections seem light to me.
Billingsley 213/193/3.09/1.23
Clayton 179/166/3.14/1.24
0 recs |
8 comments
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Comments
My two favorite players
Billingsley: 207 IP/188 K/3.35 ERA/1.32 WHIP
Kershaw: 192 IP/204 K/3.44 ERA/1.41 WHIP
by silverwidow on Mar 26, 2009 10:56 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Really good Dodger pitchers
and also keep in mind that Hongzhi Guo had the 10th best season ever (ERA+) of a 26 year reliever in the last 20 years. Second best in the last 20 years if you only look at LHPs.
vr, Xei
by Xeifrank on Mar 26, 2009 11:13 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
re:
Yup, can he stay healthy is all we worry about. I like watching him pitch more then Kershaw.
by meercatjohn on Mar 26, 2009 11:18 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Clay & Bills
Billingsley: 288 IP, 0.00 ERA, 32-0 211 IP, 207 K, 2.90 ERA / 1.19 WHIP
Kershaw: 189 IP, 191 K, 3.47 ERA / 1.29 WHIP
by Eric Stephen on Mar 26, 2009 12:15 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Bills
Here’s to hoping Groin Strain does not = Hernia
and Billingsley can retun to normal activity asap.
by 68elcamino427 on Mar 26, 2009 12:46 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Dynamic Indeed!
Billz 200/190/3.30/1.3
Clay 170/145/3.90/1.4
by Bob Hendley on Mar 26, 2009 7:04 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
A lot of eggs
in this basket for the Dodgers. It better work out.
Billingsley: 210IP, 190K, 3.00 ERA
Kershaw: 140IP, 125K, 4.00 ERA – They pitched him too much last year. This is going to bite us this year.
by Paul Scott on Mar 27, 2009 7:37 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Hoping I'm wrong on Billz
but the nagging injuries, Verducci Effect, and broken leg scare me. I’m going to go pessimistic and pray that he does better than this.
Billingsley: 168 IP, 158 K, 1.35 WHIP, 3.67 ERA
Kershaw: 172 IP, 163 K, 1.37 WHIP, 3.91 ERA
by Brendan Scolari on Mar 28, 2009 1:58 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

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