NL West Outlook: Catchers

by Brendan Scolari on Mar 27, 2009 1:04 PM PDT in Research Comment 13 comments

With only days left until the season begins, I thought we'd try to squeeze in a preview of the NL West. I'll be going over the division looking at each position and then the rotations and bullpens to see how each team is shaping up. Hopefully we'll learn a little bit about our fellow contenders and where the Dodgers stand among them. Today we'll start with the catchers.

I'll be ranking the teams based on their total projected 2009 WAR (wins above replacement) for each position. I'll be using the spreadsheet provided here by Beyond the Box Score. Marcels projections will be used to project playing time. If correct playing time is not being accounted for in the projections, I will adjust the plate appearances to equal projected playing time . I will calculate wOBA by averaging the wOBAs projected by Marcels, CHONE and ZiPS. For fielding I will use the projections provided here.

5. San Diego Padres

					Per 700 PAs
Hitter	PA	OBP	SLG	wOBA	Hit	BR	Pos	Fld	WAR	FA $	WAR
Hundley	331	.393	.392	.300	-2.13	0.00	1.25	-0.10	1.52	$3.6	0.7
Blanco	289	.288	.349	.282	-3.23	0.00	1.25	0.60	1.12	$2.5	0.5

The Padres lag behind the rest of the NL West with the worst pair of catchers. Their total WAR is 1.2. Nick Hundley is a 25 year old who was a rookie last year but was never considered a top prospect. He was given a C+ rating by prospect guru John Sickels heading into '08. Sickels also wrote, "I have always liked this guy more than I should. Can have a long career as a backup perhaps." He's not considered a long-term starting option, but given San Diego's low budget and dearth of catching prospects, he may be starting here for a while. Henry Blanco is your typical veteran backup catcher.

4. San Francisco Giants

					Per 700 PAs
Hitter	PA	OBP	SLG	wOBA	Hit	BR	Pos	Fld	WAR	FA $	WAR
B. Molina	536	.312	.429	.323	-0.73	-0.50	1.25	-0.10	2.42	$8.7	1.9
Holm	159	.328	.388	.319	-0.97	0.00	1.25	-0.80	1.98	$2.4	0.4

Bengie Molina is in the final year of his 3 year, 16 million dollar deal with the Giants. A fan favorite, Molina is loved for his hustle and clutch hitting (Giants fans' opinion, not mine). Turning 35 midseason, Molina shouldn't be a starter for too much longer. Probably the most entertaining part of his game is just watching him attempt to run the bases. Steve Holm is an eight year minor league veteran who managed to stick with the Giants as a backup catcher for much of last year and is expected to keep the job in '08.

3. Arizona Diamondbacks

					Per 700 PAs
Hitter	PA	OBP	SLG	wOBA	Hit	BR	Pos	Fld	WAR	FA $	WAR
Snyder	440	.346	.428	.341	0.37	0.00	1.25	0.40	4.52	$13.2	2.8
Montero	255	.325	.422	.328	-0.43	0.00	1.25	-0.50	2.82	$5.0	1.0

Chris Snyder is the Diamondbacks 28 year old backstop. A solid player in all areas, Snyder recently signed a three-year extension (plus club option) with the D-Backs to keep him as the starter in Arizona provided this doesn't happen again (Had to include that). Miguel Montero is the best backup catcher in the NL West, bringing a strong bat with questionable defense. He was involved in rumors of being traded to Boston during the offseason to replace Varitek, but Arizona's asking price was too high. He could be a starter if he could get out from behind Snyder's shadow. The D-Backs also took catcher James Skelton in the Rule 5 Draft, it remains to be seen whether he will make the team.

2. Colorado Rockies

					Per 700 PAs
Hitter	PA	OBP	SLG	wOBA	Hit	BR	Pos	Fld	WAR	FA $	WAR
Iannetta	427	.371	.460	.366	1.89	0.00	1.25	-0.20	5.44	$15.3	3.3
Torrealba	268	.309	.389	.307	-1.70	0.00	1.25	0.20	2.25	$4.3	0.9

Chris Iannetta is quietly developing into a star. His bat would be dangerous anywhere, let alone at Coors Field. Finally getting some attention after playing for the USA in the World Baseball Classic, Iannetta will give the rest of the NL West nightmares for years to come. Yorvit Torrealba is a long time backup catcher who spent a few years with the Giants as well. He is currently on the trade block.

1. Los Angeles Dodgers

					Per 700 PAs
Hitter	PA	OBP	SLG	wOBA	Hit	BR	Pos	Fld	WAR	FA $	WAR
Martin	587	.372	.432	.360	1.52	0.00	1.25	0.30	5.57	$21.4	4.7
Ausmus	108	.302	.291	.272	-3.83	0.00	1.25	0.20	0.12	$0.5	0.0

In first place in the rankings are our very own LA Dodgers. Russell Martin by himself is worth 4.7 WAR, more then any other combo in the NL West. That's good because Brad Ausmus projects to be worth a whopping 0 WAR. Nice million bucks spent there Ned. But we all know Martin is a stud, if he can get some more rest this year (no, playing him at 3rd doesn't count), he could potentially even improve on his numbers.

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Comments

While Ausmus Has Little Value on the Field

He does have value in the fact that he is a “proven veteran,” which might cause Joe Torre to actually sit Russell Martin more than one game every two months. And then Russ might actually still be playing in the majors by the time he’s 30.

Dodger Fever: Catch it every summer; head to the ER every October.

by Tango and Cash on Mar 27, 2009 1:13 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

It'd be better

to just instill in Torre that he NEEDS to rest Russell once every five days or so. We shouldn’t be making personnel moves based on our managers mistakes.

by Brendan Scolari on Mar 27, 2009 4:25 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Of course, that’s true. But it might not be just Torre who wants Martin out there everyday, and if that’s the case, who’s going to tell Torre to not start Martin so much?

Dodger Fever: Catch it every summer; head to the ER every October.

by Tango and Cash on Mar 27, 2009 7:32 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Good point

I guess in that case Ausmus can help. We would just have to hope that someone will have enough sense to make sure that Martin can get some rest this year, because this isn’t a very complicated problem.

by Brendan Scolari on Mar 28, 2009 1:42 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Good Work Brendan

I’m a big fan of R Martin, not so sure I’m as big a fan of J Martin. Just doesn’t look right when he’s popping up to 1st.

I was really hoping we’d sign Blanco instead of Ausmus but who knows what Ausmus can teach Martin. Maybe it won’t show up in the offensive numbers but plenty of pitchers have noted that Ausmus was a great catcher to pitch to for whatever that is worth (evidently $1 Million).

by meercatjohn on Mar 27, 2009 1:27 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

That's true.

Intangibles can have value as well, although it is hard to measure exactly how much they are worth.

by Brendan Scolari on Mar 27, 2009 4:23 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Looks like

you need to select the “N” for National League on the excel spreadsheet. By doing so it drops Martin down from 4.7 to 4.3 WAR, if I am using this spreadsheet correctly. :)
vr, Xei

by Xeifrank on Mar 27, 2009 1:41 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Maybe I'm missing something

But I don’t see that option at all. The same spreadsheet is used for all of the catchers so if it was a problem for Martin, it should be a problem with everyone else as well. Can you elaborate on what exactly you mean. Thanks for the input.

by Brendan Scolari on Mar 28, 2009 1:48 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sure

Take a look at the spreadsheet that your post references at the Beyond The Boxscore website. When you pull it up look at cell C3. There is an A/L option for whether or not the team you are analyzing is an American or National League team. If you enter the stats for Martin like you have with the “A” or “American League Team” flag selected then you get a WAR of 4.7. If you select the “N” for National League Team, you get a WAR of 4.3 for Martin. And yes, it’s a similar dropoff for every catcher in your study, but a slightly inflated value nonetheless. Hope this clarifies it.
vr, Xei

by Xeifrank on Mar 28, 2009 9:54 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs