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What Was the Difference in Kershaw's Starts?

After allowing just one hit and recording thirteen strikeouts against the Giants, Clayton Kershaw allowed six runs in only 4.1 innings against the Astros. What was the difference in pitching a gem and getting pounded? Did he throw softer, not get his pitches to break, have bad location, or was he just a victim of bad luck? Let's take a look.                                                                                                                     

Here's a chart showing the break on each of Kershaw's pitches in inches. The chart shows pitches from his last start in Houston and the start before against the Giants. 0 represents a ball with no spin, so fastballs are above 0 on the y-axis because they have backspin, causing them to rise. Curveballs are below 0 on the y-axis because their topspin causes them to drop. The viewpoint is from behind homeplate.

  Slide1_medium

Clayton's fastballs and changeups in Houston didn't have as much vertical rise, meaning they didn't have as much backspin on them as in San Francisco. I don't think this would hurt his pitching though. His curveballs actually had more break against the Astros and he threw a higher precentage of them for strikes (53% compared to 35%). So movement wasn't the problem. One other note, you may notice that Kershaw used his changeup a lot more against the Astros. He used it 11 times compared to just 5 against the Giants. It doesn't seem to be a big factor, although the Astros did have a single and a double off of his change up.

Star-divide

Here's a graph showing the velocity of Kershaw's fastballs. The pitches are in order of when they are are thrown so the points on the left are at the start of his outing and those on the right are at the end of his outing. You can see a dropoff in velocity at the end of his start in San Francisco, so he was probably fatigued then. Otherwse there seems to be a gradual drop in velocity, which is normal.                           Slide3_medium His average fastball velocity against the Giants was 95.3 MPH and against the Astros it was 93.9 MPH. He threw slightly harder against the Astros but still didn't generate a similiar amount of swings and misses. Chalk that up to the Astros offense. He also threw a higher percentage of fastballs for strikes in Houston, 69% compared to 64.5%.                                                           

Slide4_medium Here's a chart showing his curveball velocities in the two starts. He threw at basically the exact same velocity on curveballs in each start. Not much to take from this, it seems from the data available the Kershaw's curveball was at least as good if not better in Houston, but he just didn't strike guys out with it. His only strikeout only a curveball was when he got Lance Berkman to swing through a curveball in the dirt.

 

This is a graph of Kershaw's release point in the two starts:                            

Slide2_medium
 It seems he was releasing the ball just a bit lower against the GIants. I doubt this had any serious effect but it is interesting that there was a difference between the two starts. These last two charts show the final pitch of each at-bat and what the result was. The first chart shows his start against the Giants and the second chart shows his Houston start.

Kershaw_4
                                                                                                                                             

Kershaw_4

It looks like the main causes of Kershaw's poor start are just facing a better offense and having some bad luck. Pitches the Giants' hitters were unable to handle the Astros' hitters laced for line drives all over the place. The Astros were 7-12 on pitches in the strike zone while the Giants were just 1-14. You can also see that Carlos Lee's home run was actually out of the strike zone.

I wouldn't be too worried about Kershaw's poor performance on Tuesday. He was throwing harder and got more break on his pitches, but Astros' hitters were on their game. He couldn't get swings and misses in two-strike counts and the Astros got lucky on balls in play with a .410 BABIP. Against the Giants his 13 strikeouts kept them from even putting the ball in play much and their only hit was on a home run. As with most things, he's not as bad as he looked against the Astros and he's not as good as he looked against the Giants.
                                            

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This is pretty deep stuff—but one thing—-Fast Balls do NOT rise—-A good fast ball with severe backspin will defy gravity at a slower rate than other types of pitches—friendly bob ,Anaheim

by friendly bob on Apr 23, 2009 12:06 AM PDT reply actions  

Right

I don’t mean literally rise. The graph is just comparing them to a theroretical ball with no spin. So it “rises” compared to that ball, even though it is actually dropping in reality. Hope that clears it up.

by Brendan Scolari on Apr 23, 2009 2:19 AM PDT up reply actions  

Were these both away games?

In any case, if they’re not in the same park, I"d be very careful reading too much into the differences in release and movement.

by Harry Pavlidis on Apr 23, 2009 8:15 AM PDT reply actions  

Nope

the Giants game was at home, and the Astros game was in Houston. Are there differences in the PITCHf/x systems at different parks?

by Brendan Scolari on Apr 23, 2009 10:35 AM PDT up reply actions  

rising fast balls

check out -vinscullybook.com—— friendly bob ,Anaheim

by friendly bob on Apr 23, 2009 6:07 PM PDT reply actions  

I definitely agree with you

Fastballs do not rise. They do sink less than a pitch at the same speed but with no spin though, which is what the graph is comparing them to.

by Brendan Scolari on Apr 24, 2009 2:01 AM PDT up reply actions  

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2012 Dodgers Payroll

Italics denote estimates
Pos No Player 2012 Salary
C 17 Ellis $500,000 team control
1B 7 Loney $6,375,000
2B 14 Ellis $2,500,000
3B 5 Uribe $8,000,000
SS 9 Gordon $485,000 team control
LF 21 Rivera $4,000,000
CF 27 Kemp $10,000,000
RF 16 Ethier $10,950,000

IF/OF 6 Hairston $2,250,000
OF 10 Gwynn $850,000
2B/3B 3 Kennedy $800,000
C 18 Treanor $850,000
IF 12 Sellers $485,000 team control

SP 22 Kershaw $6,000,000
SP 58 Billingsley $9,000,000
SP 29 Lilly $12,000,000
SP 37 Capuano $3,000,000
SP 44
Harang $3,000,000

CL 54 Guerra $485,000 team control
RHP 74
Jansen $500,000 team control
RHP 55 Guerrier $4,750,000
RHP Coffey $1,000,000
RHP 66 MacDougal $650,000
LHP 57 Elbert $485,000 team control
RHP 36
Hawksworth $500,000 team control

TJ 41 De La Rosa $485,000 team control



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Pierre $3,050,000 deferred
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Garland $1,500,000 option buyout
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Totals
$112,162,432

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Players on 40-man roster used as roster
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Current 40-man roster count: 40
(not including Belisario)

2012 Non-Roster Invitees

No Player Age*
63 Jose Ascanio rhp
27
61 Alberto Castillo lhp
36
60 Matt Chico lhp
29
35 John Grabow lhp
33
59 Angel Guzman rhp
30
47 Wil Ledezma lhp
31
72 Shane Lindsay rhp
27
62 Fernando Nieve rhp 29
73 Scott Rice lhp 30
70 Will Savage rhp
27
71 Ryan Tucker rhp
25

30 Josh Bard c 34
82 Griff Erickson c 24
81 Matt Wallachc 26
67 Jeff Baisley 3b/1b 29
62 Luis Cruz ss/2b 28
33 Josh Fields 3b 29
64 Lance Zawadzki if 27
56 Cory Sullivan of 32

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