8th Inning Woes
by Eric Stephen on Apr 28, 2009 12:22 AM PDT
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PrintBrendan Scolari, who had the displeasure of witnessing Monday night's debacle in person, will provide the game recap. I just wanted to point out a trend thus far in the early going of 2009.
Please be advised of the small sample size alert:
The Dodgers have taken a one, two, or three-run lead into the 8th inning of 11 different games this season. Five times the lead has vanished. Here is a break down:
| Lead | Games | Blown | H | R | BB | K | HR | ERA | WHIP |
| 1-run | 6 | 3 | 10 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 10.50 | 2.33 |
| 2-run | 3 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 15.00 | 2.67 |
| 3-run | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Totals | 11 | 5 | 17 | 12 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 9.82 | 2.18 |
I still think it's too early to make any judgements about the bullpen, but this poor 8th inning trend needs to stop, and soon.
The Dodgers need a Billingsley-Broxton tag team to distract them on Tuesday.
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I thought Torre's decisions today were awful.
by Brendan Scolari on Apr 28, 2009 12:28 AM PDT reply actions
Limited Options
OK, now to Torre’s defense, his only decision, is when do I bring in Broxton. He sent him in too late today, but things aren’t all bright in the pen. WO Bills to Brox 5X rotation, he isn’t going to be able to make water out of wine.
Brox Has Been the only Given
I would have had Brox pitch the rest of the eighth, and brought Kuo in for the ninth with the bases empty if Brox protected the lead so Brox was available to pitch the next day.
Kuo with two men on is just as dodgy as Belasaria at this point in the season.
I think your point is quite solid
Broxton is the best reliever, so you would want to insert him in the highest leverage situation. That situation is the 8th with 2 runners on and no outs, not wait to bring him in in the 9th with nobody on (a situation which never occured yesterday.) You are basically pointing to the “bullpen ace” idea which is sound. Torre does this too often (though that’s not fair to single out Torre because most managers do this) which is the idea of “managing to a stat.” Eliminate the stupid “save” stat and Torre would have been compelled to bring in Broxton in the 8th.
I don’t agree with you on Kuo however. I think Kuo should have started the 8th. As I said in a different thread, if Torre and Ausmus both felt Kuo’s stuff was good in Colorado and just unlucky (which I agree with) then why have him sit on the bench and thrust Belisario to pitch another inning in relief?
by Michael White on Apr 28, 2009 9:09 AM PDT up reply actions
We Need Someone Reliable as the Set-up Man
Yes probably should have had Kuo start the 8th and try to see if he can develop as the setup man. I think once Belasario got himself into that jam, he was too tired to pitch out of it. Belasario pitched so well in the seventh, Torre stayed with him (like he did the othernight with Tran). He didn’t do himself any favors by screwing up the play at the plate. The score would have been tied going into the ninth had he not done that (of coarse, not sure I want to see this pen in extra innings). I think Ohman is stil in spring training, he used him in the blowout loss and he warms up in the pen.
Long term the bullpen is fine
Kuo and Belisario will be fine, because their stuff if too good for them not to be. Bad outings get magnified early because nobody likes to see an ERA near double digits. Over time both will be fine.
by Eric Stephen on Apr 28, 2009 9:42 AM PDT up reply actions
I think Kuo is the setup man
It’s not as though we are being asked to trust Kuo without knowing what he’s capable of. We saw what he did last year, and he earned the job as the 8th inning setup man. And sure while his appearances this year have left something to be desired, its not as though any reliever on the team (except Broxton) has performed significantly better. During the 2008 season, Kuo had the 2nd highest ERA+* (Beimel was first.) It’s way to early to pull the plug on Kuo (I know you are not advocating doing that) and he should have been given the oppurtunity to complete the 8th last night—- Belisario had already done his job.
*Note: I know that FIP is probably a better indicator for relievers, but I don’t know how to calculate that and it doesn’t tell me the FIP on the baseball reference page so I went with ERA+.
by Michael White on Apr 28, 2009 9:52 AM PDT up reply actions
I use an Excel worksheet
Since I’m always trying to calculate FIP on the fly. Here’s the formula (per Hardball Times):
(HR*13+(BB+HBP-IBB)3-K2)/IP + 3.2
the 3.2 is a league factor that can change but it’s usually right around that number, i.e. 3.18, 3.21, etc. I just use 3.2 for simplicity
by Eric Stephen on Apr 28, 2009 10:02 AM PDT up reply actions
Couple of asterisks made the text bold
Should be “times 3” and strikeouts “times 2”
by Eric Stephen on Apr 28, 2009 10:03 AM PDT up reply actions
Especially with a lefty leading off.
Also, Belisario’s pitch count should have been a concern because when he has to throw 51 pitches you can’t expect him to be very effective
by Brendan Scolari on Apr 28, 2009 10:50 AM PDT up reply actions
Love the Bonds Picture caption!
Keep up the great work, Eric!
Just leave Heidi Androl alone!
by DodgerBlueBalls on Apr 28, 2009 9:17 AM PDT reply actions
I love the addition of the AP Photos to SB Nation
It allows the authors to come up with witty subtitiles just like this one.
by Michael White on Apr 28, 2009 9:20 AM PDT up reply actions
Thanks!
The picture was too good to pass up
by Eric Stephen on Apr 28, 2009 10:05 AM PDT up reply actions
You weren't at the game though.
It looks a bit bigger when its taking up the whole Jumbotron.
by Brendan Scolari on Apr 28, 2009 10:48 AM PDT up reply actions
Infamous "Heros"
Not sure how I’d feel with Gagne in the same situation in Dodger stadium.
I think that’s why I want to put so much pressure on Broxton. I want to seem him develop that same “game over” mystique without having to take a shower afterward because you feel so dirty. I don’t care what excuses are, there were many guys out there who didn’t want to put that junk into their bodies and were at huge disadvantage, this stuff definitely crossed a line that should never be crossed, and is much worse than whatever Pete Rose did. What’s worse is that this whole era destroyed the develop rookie talent strategy the Dodger’s employed all these years (how many rookie of the years with no championships), and I think there is a definite link to the lack of the Dodgers reaching elite levels that coincided with the Juice era. Well, at least Gagne isn’t going to be indicted.
It so much easier in this situation: you just hate Barry, the ginats fans cheering him, and contemptuous ginats fans not cheering him.
Belisario
He’s one of those million dollar arm, ten cent head guys. Until he gets his shit together, I don’t want anywhere near the 8th inning. Middle relief is fine.
Agreed!
I’ll say it again: there is a distinct reason why Ronald was never deemed to be good enough to pitch for the Pittsburgh freaking Pirates, and now we’re finding out why
Just leave Heidi Androl alone!
by DodgerBlueBalls on Apr 28, 2009 3:30 PM PDT up reply actions
I disagree on principle
The Pirates haven’t haven’t had a winning season since 1992. Why should we accept their decisions as good ones?
Belisario has a checkered past but has good stuff. Even with his three bad 8th innings, his ERA is 3.68 (although he did allow 2 inherited runners to score) and opposing batters are hitting .236/.302/.364 against him. I think over time his stuff will win out, just like Kuo.
by Eric Stephen on Apr 28, 2009 3:42 PM PDT up reply actions
Point
The Pirates haven’t haven’t had a winning season since 1992. Why should we accept their decisions as good ones?
Counterpoint: The Florida Marlins have won 2 more World Series titles in the past 12 years than the Dodgers. We should accept that they make more good baseball personnel decisions than bad. Ronald Belisario pitched in their organization for four seasons, and was never deemed good enough to be promoted beyond AA ball during his tenure with the Marlins organization
Just leave Heidi Androl alone!
by DodgerBlueBalls on Apr 28, 2009 4:07 PM PDT up reply actions
My point was that
you can’t make a blanket statement like that. Each move should be evaluated on it’s own merits. It’s entirely possible that Belisario has matured and gotten healthier in the 3 years since he was let go by Florida. Also, just because the Pirates released him doesn’t make him a bad pitcher. He obviously has good stuff.
by Eric Stephen on Apr 28, 2009 5:15 PM PDT up reply actions
Also
The Marlins have had 7 losing seasons during those 12 years, compared to 1 for the Dodgers. Florida has a unique peak & valley existence.
by Eric Stephen on Apr 28, 2009 5:22 PM PDT up reply actions
Touche'
All very valid points, Eric. Of course because he wears the Dodger Blue, I hope for only the best for Belisario and that he ultimately proves me wrong. My original statement did contain some hyperbole and you were right to call me on it. I just wanted to examine your logic as well. Good stuff as always, E!
Just leave Heidi Androl alone!
by DodgerBlueBalls on Apr 28, 2009 6:11 PM PDT up reply actions
On the Bright Side
The Dodgers had no errors in that game (OK the scorekeeper was drunk and passed out). But something to build on.
I think this was probably the worst defensive game all season long.
No errors, but countless defensive misplays. That’s why the “error” stat is no good.
by Brendan Scolari on Apr 28, 2009 11:12 AM PDT up reply actions
There should be an "error" and an "oopsie" category
Field conditions were very challenging resulting in nine "oopsie"s.
But come on scorekeeper, put something up on the board for appearances if no other reason.
How was that “I’ll throw this ball with my glove right through the runner going to first base to get the guy at the plate” not an error though? So because the runner was adept at avoiding the ball tossed at him, it wasn’t an error??? And if three position players can make it to the same spot, somehow I’m thinking that ball should be able to be caught.
by Dodger Dude on Apr 28, 2009 11:43 AM PDT up reply actions
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