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May Sweeps

UPDATE: I hadn't noticed this before, but Dave Cameron of Fangraphs has a similiar article up entitled "The NL West Race is Over". Dave points out what kind of record we would need to win the division. "At 20-8, they could play .500 ball the rest of the year and finish with 87 wins. The Giants would have to play .548 baseball (75-62) to finish with 88 wins and nip LA by a game. The Diamondbacks would have to play .570 baseball (77-58) to finish with 88 wins and squeak past the Dodgers. And that’s assuming that the LA falls apart and plays .500 baseball the rest of the year. In reality, we should probably expect the Dodgers to play something like .550 baseball for the remainder of the season. They aren’t 20-8 good, but they’re an above average baseball team, and their +48 run differential is easily the best in baseball. If the Dodgers play .550 ball the rest of the way, they’ll win 94 games. I’m not sure anyone else in the rest of the division will win 84 games, much less 94". Its good to hear that an outsider feels so confident in our chances. Hopefully Dave and I haven't jinxed them.

After the two game sweep of the DIamondbacks, the Dodgers sit at 20-8, 5.5 games ahead of the second place Giants. The sweep was more important than it may seem, with the difference between the Diamondbacks winning both games and the actual outcome being 4 games, because had we lost both our lead over the D-Backs would be only 4.5 games instead of 8.5.  The sweep leaves the Diamonndbacks in a huge hole to dig themselves out of, and with Brandon Webb not back until at least June, they could start thinking about trading away some of their older players if they can't close the gap. This would all but eliminate our biggest threat for the division crown, as Baseball Prospectus'  PECOTA-Adjusted Playoff Odds show:

NL West W L Pct3 AvgW AvgL Champions Wild Card Playoffs

Dodgers

20 8 .581 99.7 62.3 83.1 4.9 87.9

Giants

13 12 .470 78.7 83.3 4.6 5.5 10.1

Padres

12 15 .434 71.5 90.5 1.0 1.3 2.3

DIamondbacks

11 16 .521 83.6 78.4 10.4 11.1 21.6

Rockies

10 15 .435 71.0 91.0 1.0 1.2 2.2

 

(The simulations were run 1,000,000 times to determine playoff odds for each team. The last three columns show the odds that each team wins the division, wildcard, and makes the playoffs. The AvgW and AvgL columns represent the average amount of wins and losses teams finished with that season. The Pct3 is the expected winning percentage for remaining games applied to each team for the simulations.)

Our odds of making the playoffs today are about 88%, and we have an 83% chance of winning the division. You can see that our biggest threats are still the DIamondbacks, who have a 10.4% chance of taking the division. At the beginning of our two game series with them, we had about an 81% chance of making the playoffs, so there was a 12% differential in sweeping the D-Backs and being swept by them. Now we've drastically reduced the D-Backs' chances of being contenders, and maybe forced them to be sellers down the road.

We've also got the best odds of making the playoffs of any team in baseball at this point in the season. The Red Sox currently have the second best odds, 74.6%. In the NL, the leading playoff contenders are the Cubs, Phillies, and Mets, with 63.6%, 49.7%, and 44.8% chances of making the playoffs respectively.

We've still got five winnable home games for the rest of this week. If we sweep the Nats, our playoff odds will probably edge above 90% for the first time this season. Here's the matchups for the rest of the week.

Daniel Cabrera vs. Clayton Kershaw

Jordan Zimmerman vs. Randy Wolf

Barry Zito vs. Chad BIllingsley

Jonathan Sanchez vs. Eric Stults

Tim Lincecum vs. Jeff Weaver

Obviously, the last game will be tough, but we still have a big advantage in 4 of our next 5 games. It's possible that we could be going for our fourth straight sweep and 11th win in a row this Sunday against Tim Lincecum.

0 recs  |  Comment 36 comments |

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Good stuff

But this article screams “JINX” :)

by Eric Stephen on May 6, 2009 1:44 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I did think about that.

If we lose today, I’ll take the blame.

by Brendan Scolari on May 6, 2009 1:48 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Can’t say I’m a fan of running playoff simulations in May. It was only a year ago when the shoe was on the other foot and everyone was giving the Diamondbacks the division.

by meercatjohn on May 6, 2009 1:56 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

True

Although that doesn’t mean the playoff odds aren’t accurate. The Diamondbacks were just the rare team that failed to capitalize on their huge advantage. Also, while I don’t know what the odds were last year, I would guess that their odds weren’t nearly as high. For one, we had outscored the opposition at this point last year despite our below .500 record, whereas the D-Backs have been outscored 99-122 and have earned their 11-16 mark.

by Brendan Scolari on May 6, 2009 2:07 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Also True but the lead has been built on a very healthy everyday lineup. Injuries can change odds very quickly and counting our ducks on May 6th is just begging for a comeuppance.

by meercatjohn on May 6, 2009 2:10 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I didn't say we had won the division

Just pointing out the odds, which are very good. We have had a very healthy lineup, but we have had 4 players go on the DL, including two important ones (Kuroda and Kuo).

by Brendan Scolari on May 6, 2009 3:32 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

as far as pitching matchups

Other than Lincecum-Weaver, I don’t think we have a huge edge with Zimmermann-Wolf. Obviously Zimmermann’s youth is an issue against the best team in baseball and a veteran in Wolf, but if he pitches the way he’s shown he can that one could be tough.

by bucknellbruin on May 6, 2009 2:15 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

The edge is in the bullpen and it is a huge edge. Hard to remember a bullpen as bad as the Nationals and young Zimmermann will probably only go six at most. Wolf will give up 2 or 3 in the first and then settle down as we win 6 -4.

by meercatjohn on May 6, 2009 2:21 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

yeah that's true for sure

wasn’t thinking about that…clearly we have that advantage but i was just talking starting pitchers. but you’re right obviously

by bucknellbruin on May 6, 2009 2:22 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I was talking about the whole team

Not just the starting pitchers. I should have made that more clear.

by Brendan Scolari on May 6, 2009 3:35 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Just some props to the SRG, I like what she’s trying to do. You can catch her latest reports on our FanShots or use this link.
http://www.truebluela.com/2009/5/5/866111/how-long-is-this-home-streak-going

by meercatjohn on May 6, 2009 2:38 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Hey Brendan,

just thought you might wanna know. Josh Whitesell got called up today.

"Besides, this is freaking 2009.... WHERE THE HELL IS MY DAMNED FLYING CAR??"

by DbacksSkins on May 6, 2009 2:38 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Your boy is back to The Show.

"Besides, this is freaking 2009.... WHERE THE HELL IS MY DAMNED FLYING CAR??"

by DbacksSkins on May 6, 2009 2:39 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Is he going to play?
He was mashing at home but not so much on the road.
http://firstinning.com/players/Josh-Whitesell-a/

by meercatjohn on May 6, 2009 2:41 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

He still

had an OPS over 820 on the road.

"Besides, this is freaking 2009.... WHERE THE HELL IS MY DAMNED FLYING CAR??"

by DbacksSkins on May 6, 2009 2:45 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Aided by a .515 BABIP.

by meercatjohn on May 6, 2009 3:05 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yet, his "mashing" at home

only came at a .367 BABIP.

"Besides, this is freaking 2009.... WHERE THE HELL IS MY DAMNED FLYING CAR??"

by DbacksSkins on May 6, 2009 3:24 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

However,

I think that BABIPs across the PCL are high…. it really IS a hitter’s league. Top ten hitters in wOBA in the PCL have BABIP’s ranging from .514 to .371, with half of them over .400.

"Besides, this is freaking 2009.... WHERE THE HELL IS MY DAMNED FLYING CAR??"

by DbacksSkins on May 6, 2009 3:31 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

That's awesome.

I’ll be rooting for him, but hopefully he won’t help you guys too much. ;-)

by Brendan Scolari on May 6, 2009 3:33 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Tony Clark to the DL

Whitesell to the big club.

First good personnel move we’ve made in awhile.

"Besides, this is freaking 2009.... WHERE THE HELL IS MY DAMNED FLYING CAR??"

by DbacksSkins on May 6, 2009 3:36 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Nats bullpen

Their bullpen has in some ways pitched better than the starters, .251/.356/.424 vs .291/.357/.494.

However, the Nats’ bullpen is 0-8 and leads the majors in losses. The Angels’ pen is 1-8.

by Eric Stephen on May 6, 2009 2:46 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Shouldn’t any bullpen be much better then the rotation when given the number of innings they respectively pitch. I’m just asking, I have no idea.

by meercatjohn on May 6, 2009 2:51 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

A great start but can someone reassure me that the Dodgers won’t turn into the 2008 D’Backs.

What do we call treating everyone equally when they are clearly not equal? Communism!

by Sordid on May 6, 2009 3:04 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Hehe..... :-D

"Besides, this is freaking 2009.... WHERE THE HELL IS MY DAMNED FLYING CAR??"

by DbacksSkins on May 6, 2009 3:04 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well

Obviously it’s possible but I don’t really see much evidence that our performance will collapse. We won’t play .700 ball all year but I don’t think we will dip to below .500 ball either.

by Brendan Scolari on May 6, 2009 3:37 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

The Nationals are the baseball equivalent of the L.A Clippers

What do we call treating everyone equally when they are clearly not equal? Communism!

by Sordid on May 6, 2009 3:08 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Alright alright alright

Let’s go Kershaw

Weaver On Acid: 1/2 oz Jagermeister, 1/2 oz Malibu coconut rum, 1/2 oz pineapple juice

by the big grabowski on May 6, 2009 7:10 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

K

Weaver On Acid: 1/2 oz Jagermeister, 1/2 oz Malibu coconut rum, 1/2 oz pineapple juice

by the big grabowski on May 6, 2009 7:13 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

KK

Weaver On Acid: 1/2 oz Jagermeister, 1/2 oz Malibu coconut rum, 1/2 oz pineapple juice

by the big grabowski on May 6, 2009 7:22 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

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