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Around SBN: The Most Dangerous Division in Sports

Will Rafael Furcal Ever Steal Bases Again?

Back in 1999, a 21-year old (he was reported to be 20 years old at the time) shortstop playing for Class A in the Atlanta Braves system stole 96 bases, to go along with his .392 on-base percentage, and burst onto the baseball scene.  By 2000, he was a regular with the Braves, bringing his speed and a cannon arm to the big leagues.  Rafael Furcal stole 40 bases that season, and would never steal fewer than 25 bases in a full season with the Braves.

Furcal was Ned Colletti's first player acquisition, when he signed a three-year deal with the Dodgers in December 2005.  Furcal was probably the Dodgers' MVP in 2006, batting .300/.369/.445 with 37 steals.  Even in fighting through an injury in 2007, Furcal stole 25 bases.

Through his first eight seasons, Furcal averaged 31 steals per year, with a 77.7% success rate.  Last year, as Furcal was tearing up the National League before his back injury.  Through 32 games, Furcal stole 8 more bases, on pace for 40 over a full season.  However, since coming back from his back injury, Furcal simply has stopped running.  I suppose it could be argued that Furcal hasn't stolen bases because he hasn't been on base (.315 OBP since coming back last September), but I don't think that's the case.

This season, Furcal has four steals in 65 games.  The same as Andre Ethier.  Fewer than James Loney, Russell Martin, and Orlando Hudson.  Furcal has been caught four times too, so his success rate is the worst among all Dodger regulars.  Even Casey Blake (two for three) has been better in this regard!

I understand the stolen base attempt isn't always the wisest choice, given how precious outs are, but I find them aesthetically pleasing.  The stolen base is a huge part of Furcal's game, and as of now it is essentially absent.  I miss the old Furcal (or, perhaps I miss the "young" Furcal).  If asked to choose the priority of Furcal improvements, I would choose for Raffy to start hitting better, but the wheels have been missed too.

Maybe if we notice an increase in Furcal stolen bases, it is a sign of returned health and could lead to a turnaround at the plate.  Maybe its a chicken/egg thing, but either way, I'm ready for Furcal to be a speed demon once again.

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His back

Is the only viable explanation

by pdotmac1 on Jun 26, 2009 10:53 AM PDT reply actions  

Yeah

I hope his back allows him to be back to normal soon :)

by Eric Stephen on Jun 26, 2009 11:08 AM PDT up reply actions  

Anyone who has chronic back problems recognizes what Furcal’s probably recognizing: your speed is gone. It’s just gone. Sure, he can still go from 1st to 3rd on the ball to right, but the instant acceleration you need to steal bases just isn’t there anymore. I can see him getting into double digits, but not at a good percentage, but the days of him stealing 30-40 bases a year are over.

by SoftballHuman on Jun 26, 2009 2:00 PM PDT up reply actions  

DP, is that you? Welcome!

by Eric Stephen on Jun 26, 2009 2:39 PM PDT up reply actions  

I’ve been lurking for a long time. You know I can’t quit you, biatch!

by SoftballHuman on Jun 26, 2009 10:43 PM PDT up reply actions  

Ouchie Back!

Until recently the throws to first were particularly erratic – stiff lower back?
Then he was held out for a few days – hammy and gluteus maximus discomfort – knee bone connected to the hip bone connected to the back bone – due to compensating for the weakness in the injured back area?
I just hope Raffy can last the season – if he can then I’d love to see him steal a base in the World Series – in the game the Dodgers clinch the title.

by 68elcamino427 on Jun 26, 2009 12:29 PM PDT reply actions  

people

slow down as they age. Speed peeks before players get in the majors. It is possible that his injury is still making him worse in this regard than he “should” be, based on age and talent, but it is also possible that he will never be a SB threat again.

by Paul Scott on Jun 26, 2009 3:43 PM PDT reply actions  

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Pos No Player 2012 Salary
C 17 Ellis $490,000
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LF 23 Abreu $401,311
CF 27 Kemp $10,000,000
RF 16 Ethier $10,950,000

OF 10 Gwynn $850,000
IF 12 Sellers $481,000
OF/1B 33 Van Slyke $388,197
2B/3B 3 Kennedy $800,000
C 18 Treanor $850,000

SP 22 Kershaw $6,000,000
SP 58 Billingsley $9,000,000
SP 29 Lilly $12,000,000
SP 44
Harang $3,000,000
SP 35 Capuano $3,000,000

CL 74
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RHP 52 Lindblom $483,000
RHP 51 Belisario $414,426
RHP 54 Guerra $488,000
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Wright $900,000
LHP 57 Elbert $488,500
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DL 55 Guerrier $4,750,000
DL 6 Hairston $2,250,000
DL 21 Rivera $4,000,000
60DL 36 Hawksworth $495,000
60DL 41 De La Rosa $485,000

AAA 13 DeJesus $86,648
AA 50 Eovaldi $7,885
AAA 56 Antonini $7,869



Manny $8,087,432 deferred


Andruw $3,375,000 deferred


Pierre $3,050,000 deferred
Furcal $3,000,000 deferred
Kuroda $2,000,000 deferred
Garland $1,500,000 option buyout
Blake $1,250,000 option buyout
DFA 66 MacDougal $650,000

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$114,830,268

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