Rockies Come To Town Smelling Blood
by Eric Stephen on Jun 29, 2009 4:00 PM PDT
in Game Previews
87 comments
Since the Dodgers have lost two straight series, while the Rockies have won 20 of 23, its understandable that they would feel confident, even 7½ games out of the division lead. However, before Dodger fans start heading toward the ledge, here's a look at all the times the LA Dodgers have held a lead of seven games or more (they currently lead the Giants by 7):
| Year | Season Result |
| 2004 | won division |
| 1988 | won World Series |
| 1985 | won division |
| 1978 | won NL Pennant |
| 1977 | won NL Pennant |
| 1974 | won NL Pennant |
| 1973 | led by 8.5 after game #96; lost by 2 (Reds) |
| 1963 | won World Series |
We have to go back 36 years to find a Dodger team that didn't convert a lead this big into winning the division or league. A seven-game lead is a big deal. While the Dodgers may not be as good as 48-28, I'm going out on a limb to say the Rockies aren't as good as 20-3 or 22-7 (their record under Jim Tracy) either. And the Giants? Not with that offense.
Also, I don't know if you have heard this or not, but the Dodgers are adding a fairly significant hitter to their lineup at the end of this week, which should only bode well going forward. As much as I would like to bill this series with the Rockies as some huge clash between two teams vying for the division title, that's simply not the case. Sure, the Rockies (or Giants) could end up winning the wild card, and Baseball Prospectus has the Dodgers' chances of winning the division at "only" 89.4%, but for all intents and purposes...
THE NATIONAL LEAGUE WEST HAS ALREADY BEEN DECIDED. THE RACE IS OVER.
Randy Wolf is coming off his worst start of the season, giving up three home runs in Chicago against the White Sox. Wolf was not pleased, saying: "There is no way to candy-coat it. I stunk. Frankly, I’m embarrassed with the way I pitched." In Wolf's lone outing against Colorado this season, back in April, he allowed three first-inning runs but rebounded to retire 16 of the final 18 batters he faced, keeping the Dodgers in the game that they would later win, 4-3.
Ubaldo Jimenez starts for the Rockies, his fourth start of the season against the Dodgers. He has allowed seven, six, then five runs in those three starts, so look for the Dodgers to tally four off him tonight, continuing the trend.
The Dodgers have won eight of nine meetings with the Rockies this season, but the games have been closer than you think, at least with the starters in the game. Here's a breakdown of the scoring in those nine games:
| Innings 1-6: | Dodgers 40, Rockies 36 |
| Innings 7+: | Dodgers 34, Rockies 7 |
The key to tonight's game, and the series? Making it a battle of bullpens.
Get your guesses in for "She Is Gone" here.
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Inasmuch as blogs control on-field performance (wink)
I enjoy complacency in the teams we’re chasing. Should be a good series.
"Don't tell me about the world. Not today. It's springtime and they're knocking baseballs around fields where the grass is damp and green in the morning and the kids are trying to hit the curve ball." -Pete Hamill
by Bryce on Jun 29, 2009 4:21 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I agree
and luckily for us, I’m certain the Dodgers don’t feel complacent. They can leave the boasting and laurel-resting to us fans :)
by Eric Stephen on Jun 29, 2009 4:23 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, someone has to do it.
:)
"Don't tell me about the world. Not today. It's springtime and they're knocking baseballs around fields where the grass is damp and green in the morning and the kids are trying to hit the curve ball." -Pete Hamill
by Bryce on Jun 29, 2009 4:31 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
As apparently the only believer in the jinx on this blog
I am skipping certain small portions of this post ;-) but do welcome the idea of a close pennant race. as long as it’s one the Dodgers win.
I really do wish Manny was back already though, I’d feel more confident in this series. But should be a good one.
Not sure what animals Jim Tracy sacrificed to get the Rox to play so much better under his rule but interested to see the new incarnation.
by underdog on Jun 29, 2009 4:23 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I’m just trying to get a Pat Riley-esque motivational tool out there for the team :)
by Eric Stephen on Jun 29, 2009 4:25 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Could work but could also try the opposite method
by underdog on Jun 29, 2009 4:36 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
btw, did anyone ever read this?
http://espn.go.com/page2/movies/s/halloran/020826.html
Bull Durham, overrated? I think not! I hope that Halloran guy has since been fired for such idiocy.
by underdog on Jun 29, 2009 4:39 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Does he write for Slate?
Next up from Bob Halloran: “Why Old Ladies Should Cross The Street By Themselves.”
by Eric Stephen on Jun 29, 2009 4:41 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Less than 90% likelihood is enough to close the book?
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jun 29, 2009 4:55 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Yep…I don’t claim that it is rational in anyway
by Eric Stephen on Jun 29, 2009 5:02 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
He's just trying to stir things up ;-)
as he said the important thing is no one the Dodgers team thinks that the race is over. I’m sure they’re not taking the race, or the Rockies or Giants, for granted.
by underdog on Jun 29, 2009 5:03 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Jim Tracy. You resigned. YOU RESIGNED.
“We had a good, young nucleus, and a lot of those guys over there right now were at (Double A) Jacksonville,” Tracy said. “You felt you have the type of talent that would give you a chance for a six-, seven-, eight-year run. I felt that was taken away. It was disappointing.”
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/9743644/Tracy-thriving-in-third-managerial-stint
by Tripon on Jun 29, 2009 4:57 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
That’s a technicality. Grady Little resigned too.
by Eric Stephen on Jun 29, 2009 5:03 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Little was pushed out.
Tracy could have fought it out to stay. Its not as if McCourt solely backed DePodesta.
by Tripon on Jun 29, 2009 5:04 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Cue the Simpsons new song
Chorus: “We are the mediocre…managers. You won’t find our names on any cards or banners.”
by underdog on Jun 29, 2009 5:04 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
And to the Rockies fans hanging around
just speaking for myself, I have nothing personal against Jim Tracy, he seemed like a nice guy when he was in LA and I do think he’s a better manager than Clint Hurdle (which isn’t saying much, but still). But he was frequently head-scratching as Dodger manager. And his post-game interviews were often priceless, and yet worthless, if that’s possible.
by underdog on Jun 29, 2009 5:06 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’m really looking forward to his quotes these three days
by Eric Stephen on Jun 29, 2009 5:07 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Does Jim Tracy
provide a great quote? Yes, sometimes. Will we be looking forward to hearing them? Definitely!
by underdog on Jun 29, 2009 5:08 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Is he a question talker?
I haven’t caught many postgames
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jun 29, 2009 5:23 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
He was notorious for that
and even more recently when with the Pirates he was still doing that sort of self-interview style. I haven’t caught too much of him since he’s been Rox manager though.
by underdog on Jun 29, 2009 5:26 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Then maybe he should have played ball with his GM
Did he really think he’d win that battle?
by meercatjohn on Jun 29, 2009 5:18 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed
Did Jim Tracy cut his own throat? Yes, yes he did. But DePodesta’s seeming inability to get Tracy to toe the line was probably one of the reasons McCourt cut the cord with his GM. McCourt said one of Ned’s biggest strengths was getting the organization vertically aligned. (Not in those words exactly, but that was the message.)
by David Young on Jun 29, 2009 5:34 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Smelling blood
I’d be more afraid if we were playing a team named the Sharks not the Rockies. Actually, not only is this a golden opportunity for the Rockies to make a race out of the NL West, it’s also a golden opportunity for the Dodgers to knock the Rockies out of the divisional race. Gotta like our chances with both Billingsley and Kershaw pitching at home.
vr, Xei
by Xeifrank on Jun 29, 2009 5:02 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I would definitely be more worried
if the Dodgers were playing a hockey team, absolutely. They’d all get hurt in the first five minutes! Except maybe Russell..
by underdog on Jun 29, 2009 5:09 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Still no lineups yet. I probably won’t be around until game time or so, so I won’t get the chance to post them early.
by Eric Stephen on Jun 29, 2009 5:07 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Nice choice of photo
That’s the only time Hammel has been down this month, and it was after a sweet snag on a line drive
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jun 29, 2009 5:07 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
There haven’t been a ton of funny photos lately…I had to jump at the chance to use one. :)
by Eric Stephen on Jun 29, 2009 5:08 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
One of the greatest perks of the AP agreement
Like showcasing a photo of a ball going off Upton’s head.
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jun 29, 2009 5:10 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
you could've used this one
for old time’s sake.
by underdog on Jun 29, 2009 5:11 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I used to love when Tracy argued
he usually put his hands behind his back, and seemingly tried to agree with the umpire more fervently than any manager had before him. His head was like a bobble head, he just kept shaking it up and down.
I felt like he ended every argument with, “You know, I never thought of it that way. When you’re right your right. Sorry for interrupting.”
by Michael White on Jun 29, 2009 6:23 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
When someone asked Willie Mays
on a talk show if he used steroids, his response: “I don’t need that crap, man!”
by silverwidow on Jun 29, 2009 5:07 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Darryl Strawberry said he absolutely would have taken them if they had been available to him
But Darryl was hardly a discriminating fellow.
by David Young on Jun 29, 2009 5:36 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I wonder if he realized that they don't really have any narcotic effects.
It might have dampened his enthusiasm if he knew there wasn’t a buzz to be gained from it.
by Rox Girl on Jun 29, 2009 5:52 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm no gamblin man
…but BoDog has the dodgers at 2 to 1 if you take the line which is dodgers by 1.5 runs. so if Ubaldo implodes and the Dodgers win by 2 or more someone’s going to make some cash.
I'm nobody's fool, least of all yours
by BoulderDodger on Jun 29, 2009 5:20 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Lineup as per InsideSocal blog
Pierre LF
Furcal SS
Hudson 2B
Blake 3B
Loney 1B
Martin C
Ethier RF
Kemp CF
Wolf P
No Rox lineup posted yet.
by underdog on Jun 29, 2009 5:29 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
and yes, commence sighing and hand-wringing about Kemp batting 8th
(though he’s certainly fared well in that spot)
vs Jiminez I was hoping for a bit higher though.
by underdog on Jun 29, 2009 5:30 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't get why JP owns the leadoff spot.
Furcal and Hudson can lead off just as well.
by Tripon on Jun 29, 2009 5:32 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Kemp batting eighth makes less sense
than any batter in his usual batting order spot in the majors
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jun 29, 2009 5:46 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Furcal still hitting ...
second is even more ridiculous ….
by Pedro's curse on Jun 29, 2009 6:07 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't know
Kemp is probably the Dodgers’ best hitter, at least by wOBA. He’s a middle of the lineup talent. Furcal doesn’t belong at the 2 either, but he is a two hole talent that is cold, but even then, he can still offer bunting and speed from the two hole.
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jun 29, 2009 6:23 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I understand ...
what Torre is doing with Kemp. Kemp’s a fragile dude, confidence wise. Torrre knows this and coddle’s him…. But Raffy needs some intervention too, he’s been cold all year…
by Pedro's curse on Jun 29, 2009 6:31 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
"Kemp’s a fragile dude, confidence wise."
What proof do you have of this?
by Michael White on Jun 29, 2009 6:33 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Common ...
knowledge. Kemp has had struggle’s with off speed pitches for along time before this year. He worked real hard to lay off that offspeed…. Torre’s actions speak for themselves. He wants to keep Kemp productive, keep the pressure off him…
What do you think Torres motives have been all year long?
by Pedro's curse on Jun 29, 2009 6:40 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
There's a big difference between
“a fragile dude, confidence wise”
and
“[Torre] wants to … keep the pressure off him "
I agree with the second statement. Whether or not Kemp has confidence issue (I have no idea, but I don’t see it manifested on the field), I do believe Torre wants to keep pressure off Kemp (because he’s the youngest starter?), and it is probably partly because Joe thinks playing CF everyday is already a fair amount of pressure.
by David Young on Jun 29, 2009 6:43 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
See he "HAD" ...
a confidence issue.
And Torre want to keep it that way. But if Kemp keeps raking it,
Torre will have to Graduate the Bison …
by Pedro's curse on Jun 29, 2009 6:47 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I guess ...
That’s why they’re almost extict.
by Pedro's curse on Jun 29, 2009 6:41 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Everything is fragile
compared to rifle shots.
by David Young on Jun 29, 2009 6:43 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think that makes sense
the Bison still has a big strikeout rate, he leads the team with 71, next behind him are Dre and the beard with 54, I think he wont jump too much higher until he becomes a bit more disciplined.
O.A.
by Ollie on Jun 29, 2009 6:40 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
That projects to about 151 K for Kemp and 115 K for Blake and Ethier.
by David Young on Jun 29, 2009 6:51 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Anything more than 110-115
k’s is too much. If your at 150 you better be hitting at least .300 30HR and 115 RBI’s….. But I think Matt is capable of those numbers …
by Pedro's curse on Jun 29, 2009 7:00 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Two best hitters are batting 7th and 8th...
by Brendan Scolari on Jun 29, 2009 5:37 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
more RBIs for them.
Our most productive hitters are the 4-8 spots right now.
I love me some Hudson, but he is slumping like heck right now.
by Tripon on Jun 29, 2009 5:38 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hudson in June: .237 / .284 / .366 / .650
He is 1 for 12 to start the homestand, droppin g his season OPS to .809.
by David Young on Jun 29, 2009 5:42 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I get the feeling that he really is playing though some injuries and won't sit down ever.
Makes you wish DeWitt could be called up and play a couple of times per week.
by Tripon on Jun 29, 2009 5:45 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
With all those PA bonuses
He has a big incentive not to sit.
by David Young on Jun 29, 2009 5:52 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hard to believe that
PA bonuses could have a negative impact. Won’t be long before the great Hudson is basically hitting his level. 162 game seasons are the great equalizer.
by meercatjohn on Jun 29, 2009 6:53 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed ...
Hud could hurt the team that way. Just hope Torre could find a
way to keep him fresh and healthy… Hud will be invaluable in the pre-season…
by Pedro's curse on Jun 29, 2009 7:09 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
correction ...
Hud will be invaluable in the post-season
by Pedro's curse on Jun 29, 2009 7:11 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'd like to hit them in the middle of the order though
More AB’s.
by Brendan Scolari on Jun 29, 2009 5:46 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Speaking of
What did Loney ever do to hit ahead of Ethier?
by Brendan Scolari on Jun 29, 2009 5:46 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Batters with the most career PAs vs. Ubaldo Jimenez
1. Loney 26 PAs
2. Ethier 25
3. Martin 24
Kemp is tied for 8th with 19.
by David Young on Jun 29, 2009 5:39 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Kemp is tied for 8th with 19.
Maybe that’s because he always bats eighth?
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jun 29, 2009 5:45 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nice
Kemp actually has two less starts against Jimenez compared to Loney, but one PH back in late 2006 in an Ubaldo relief appearance.
by David Young on Jun 29, 2009 5:53 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Jon Weisman reporting this lineup at 5:43 P.M. in his comments
Pierre, LF
Furcal, SS
Hudson, 2B
Blake, 3B
Ethier , RF
Kemp, CF
Loney, 1B
Martin, C
Wolf, LHP
by David Young on Jun 29, 2009 5:49 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
That's probably how I would have done it
Or maybe…Pierre/Hudson/Kemp/Blake/Ethier/Loney/Martin/Furcal
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jun 29, 2009 6:06 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah P.F...
this is a good lineup card here….
by Pedro's curse on Jun 29, 2009 6:16 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I suppose you could swap Blake and Ehtier
if you want to utilize the RLRL pattern
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jun 29, 2009 6:22 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
That would do too ...
as long as Raffy hit’s 7 or 8. He needs a change, get that confidence
back …
by Pedro's curse on Jun 29, 2009 6:25 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
there we go
I'm nobody's fool, least of all yours
by BoulderDodger on Jun 29, 2009 6:08 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Just found out
Rox are 1-13 on June 29 in franchise history
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jun 29, 2009 6:07 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
That 2nd Dodger lineup is correct
Here is the Rox:
Fowler. CF
Barmes. 2B
Helton. 1B
Atkins. 3B
Hawpe. RF
Tulowitzki. SS
Spilborghs. LF
Iannetta. C
Jimenez. RHP
by Eric Stephen on Jun 29, 2009 6:28 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
And now of course the Daily News' ItD site
is down (at least for me) so I can’t see whether they’ve since corrected their incorrect lineup. Oh well, don’t know why I even went there in the first place!
by underdog on Jun 29, 2009 6:38 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ah now it's up, and corrected
and with the Rox lineup.
I swear I didn’t hallucinate!
(About that anyway.)
by underdog on Jun 29, 2009 6:41 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Only two lefties in the lineup
Both can handle LHP just fine
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jun 29, 2009 6:39 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hawpe’s stats are showing good improvement against LHP over the last couple seasons. Does he look better against southpaws or is this just a small sample size thing?
by David Young on Jun 29, 2009 6:46 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
He looks legitimately better
Started around Rocktober. There are a few guys that have given him fits, like that guy in Milwaukee that would win a Cy Young if all the batters were LH. But he definitely has a game plan
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jun 29, 2009 6:58 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
LOS ANGELES — Three off days before the All-Star Break means the Dodgers won’t need a fifth starter until July 11 at Milwaukee. On that day, they’ll go with Eric Milton, Joe Torre said.
Torre notified Milton this afternoon in the Dodgers clubhouse that he’d earn the start 12 days from now. Until then, Milton will be used out of the bullpen.
“Between now and then, things can change,” Torre said. “But as of right now he’ll be available out of the bullpen.”
http://blogs.pe.com/prosports/mlb/dodgers/
I’m guessing either Leach or McDonald is going to be optioned back down if the Dodgers keep to this.
by Tripon on Jun 29, 2009 6:55 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
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