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Baseball's Prospectus - Josh Lindblom A Disappointment- Really?

Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus recently reviewed the NL West 2008 draft. I have to take issue with some of his less then inspired analysis about Josh Lindblom.

Los Angeles Dodgers
Top Pick: First-rounder Ethan Martin has been as good as advertised in his pro debut, striking out 51 over 40 2/3 innings at Single-A Great Lakes, with one awful start giving him a mediocre 3.76 ERA, while he's delivered five shutout innings in three of his nine starts.
Movin' On Up: Ultra-athletic shortstop Dee Gordon is batting .294/.349/.397 with 25 stolen bases at Great Lakes, and while that line may not blow you away, scouts call him one of the most raw players in the league, one who is just beginning to scratch the surface of his abilities, with a few Jimmy Rollins comparisons thrown out there for good measure.
Disappointing: Second-round pick Josh Lindblom generated an enormous amount of buzz this spring by earning some consideration for the big-league squad, but the big right-hander has struggled in both starting and relief roles at Double-A Chattanooga with a 4.78 ERA.

Now I'm just not sure how Josh Lindblom's first full professional season can be called a "disappointment". The 2nd round pick is already pitching in AA, and for the most part has been the best pitcher in the league. For a site steeped in analysis, Kevin points to his 4.78 ERA as the reason for his disappointment. With just a little more review we find that Josh Lindblom leads the Southern League in FIP and has the best base on ball %. I'm not quite sure what more BP expects of Josh Lindblom. Maybe his K rate is not upto par. Oh wait, not only does he lead the league with the best base on ball % he is also striking out 21% of the hitters he's facing.   He's appeared in 11 games and has been hit hard in three of them while being yanked back and forth between starting and relieving. For a guy in his first full year of professional baseball if this is disappointment, bring me more.

 

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Yea, labeling Lindblom as “disappointing” doesn’t make any sense. His K:BB ratio is great and his FIP is fantastic.

The big thing for me is he’s coverting back from being a closer in college. Even in the Midwest League last year (which he dominated), he wasn’t being stretched out too much. So this is really his first year as a dedicated starter since his early college days.

by ASUcruz on Jun 3, 2009 4:29 PM PDT reply actions  

Then again he says this about my favorite minor league player.
The best catching prospect still in the minors?

Carlos Santana, C, Indians (Double-A Akron)
Tuesday’s stats: 2-for-4, 2 HR (9), 2 R, 3 RBI, K
Most would tell you Buster Posey, some would take Jesus Montero of the Yankees on a technicality, as he’s most likely not a catcher in the end, but there are a few who might take this guy. Half of his hits have gone for extra bases, he’s a walk machine, his overall battng line now sits at .294/.424/.566 and his defense is getting better quickly.

Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen

by Phil Gurnee on Jun 3, 2009 4:29 PM PDT reply actions  

There’s a reasonable chance Goldstein was watching a different pitcher when he thought it was Lindblom. It’s pretty common, from what I’ve heard.

by Eric Stephen on Jun 3, 2009 4:29 PM PDT reply actions  

LOL

I’m going to enjoy inside TB jokes.

Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen

by Phil Gurnee on Jun 3, 2009 4:31 PM PDT up reply actions  

I think that its clear that he heard the buzz after spring of him possibly being the 12th (or 13th in our case) pitcher then looked at the ERA and inferred that it was disappointing…kind of irresponsible to print something like this without looking at all the stats

by Rutgers Dodger fan on Jun 3, 2009 4:47 PM PDT reply actions  

Lindblom, Martin, Gordon

I didn’t read the prospectus, but it does come as a surprise to me. I don’t go for all these newfangled stats and abbreviations you use, but I can tell you the guy looks like he’s ready to be on the roster. Lindblom looked really good for a first year player visiting a major league camp this spring. That’s not to say he’s a finished product, but he looks like his education is about ready to advance to the school of hard knocks. I expect the Dodgers are going to continue to not let him eat too many innings. He’ll probably be up before september if kuo doesn’t come back and all the middle relievers continue to struggle. His reliever experience will work well for him, as they’ll probably use him that way for a couple years before stretching him out.

For all the press Gordon gets, he doesn’t look close to ready to me. I was a little perplexed by the pre-season hype of him battling for the starting job (when furcal was unsigned). Perhaps it is just that the Dodgers spend so few early picks on hitters so one has to dig to find the minor league hitters that are doing well for the Dodgers from the start.

Martin does look pretty good. The Dodger scouts have been extremely impressive the last 10 years profiling out starting pitchers. Martin looks like another one of these guys that will hit the majors within 3 years and then have mixed success as he struggles to figure things out for a few years…same mold as jackson, billingsley, kershaw, elbert, mcdonald…

by IAmDT on Jun 4, 2009 4:30 AM PDT reply actions  

Gordon

Of course Gordon isn’t ready. He didn’t even play JC last season because of a grades issue. I don’t know what hype pre-season hype you’re talking about regarding Gordon battling for a starting job. I don’t remember any. I think everyone knows how raw Gordon is right now.

by ASUcruz on Jun 4, 2009 6:21 AM PDT up reply actions  

Yeah

He’s only in Low-A ball, I dodn’t think anyone expects him to be ready for a few years at least.

by Brendan Scolari on Jun 4, 2009 12:02 PM PDT up reply actions  

"I was a little perplexed by the pre-season hype of him battling for the starting job "

Are you thinking of DeJesus?

The guys who I remember competiting for a starting job (before Furcal was re-signed) were Hu, DeJesus and DeWitt.

by Michael White on Jun 4, 2009 8:11 AM PDT up reply actions  

I think that’s who he is thinking of. There was no way it was Gordon. Guy had never even played above Rookie ball!

There’s no chance anyone was talking about Gordon making the 40-man roster let alone the major league roster.

by ASUcruz on Jun 4, 2009 9:16 AM PDT up reply actions  

Gordon isn't close...at all

Unless we want 60 errors in a season :o

by Chad Moriyama on Jun 5, 2009 3:27 AM PDT up reply actions  

This is LA!

Where we’ve seen many innings at SS from Bill Russell, Mariano Duncan, and Jose Offerman. With that past, stomaching 60 errors isn’t that big a stretch!

by David Young on Jun 5, 2009 12:44 PM PDT up reply actions  

Hahahahahahaha

I really was going to throw in a Jose Offerman reference at the end but I abstained. :o

by Chad Moriyama on Jun 5, 2009 4:24 PM PDT up reply actions  

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Pos No Player 2012 Salary
C 17 Ellis $490,000
1B 7 Loney $6,375,000
2B 14 Ellis $2,500,000
3B 5 Uribe $8,000,000
SS 9 Gordon $485,000
LF 23 Abreu $401,311
CF 27 Kemp $10,000,000
RF 16 Ethier $10,950,000

OF 10 Gwynn $850,000
IF 12 Sellers $481,000
OF/1B 33 Van Slyke $388,197
2B/3B 3 Kennedy $800,000
C 18 Treanor $850,000

SP 22 Kershaw $6,000,000
SP 58 Billingsley $9,000,000
SP 29 Lilly $12,000,000
SP 44
Harang $3,000,000
SP 35 Capuano $3,000,000

CL 74
Jansen $491,000
RHP 52 Lindblom $483,000
RHP 51 Belisario $414,426
RHP 54 Guerra $488,000
RHP 28
Wright $900,000
LHP 57 Elbert $488,500
RHP 60 Coffey $1,000,000

DL 55 Guerrier $4,750,000
DL 6 Hairston $2,250,000
DL 21 Rivera $4,000,000
60DL 36 Hawksworth $495,000
60DL 41 De La Rosa $485,000

AAA 13 DeJesus $86,648
AA 50 Eovaldi $7,885
AAA 56 Antonini $7,869



Manny $8,087,432 deferred


Andruw $3,375,000 deferred


Pierre $3,050,000 deferred
Furcal $3,000,000 deferred
Kuroda $2,000,000 deferred
Garland $1,500,000 option buyout
Blake $1,250,000 option buyout
DFA 66 MacDougal $650,000

Totals
$114,830,268

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