Mid-Season Prospect Update
by Phil Gurnee on Jun 30, 2009 4:51 PM PDT
in Los Angeles Dodgers Minor League Report
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PrintClicking on any of the player links will take you to http://firstinning.com an excellent site with easy to read advanced statistics for the current season.
New Top 15
| Rank | Bday | Name | Update |
| 1 | 8/13/85 | Scott Elbert | Even though he missed some time with the big club, Elbert made his presence felt in AA before he was promoted to AAA. He still leads the league in strikeouts, is 2nd in the league in FIP, leads the league with a 31.5% K rate. His only weakness was his command where his walk rate was still double digits at 10.9%. In his first start with the Isotopes in AAA he pitched a one hitter and also only walked one batter. Coming into the year it looked like Elbert may have lost a little bit of his shine but until the recent daftee's make more of an impression he's my current number one prospect. |
| 2 | 5/1/87 | Ivan DeJesus | Hasn't played due to a broken leg but I haven't seen anyone overtake him on my list. With the way Rafy Furcal is playing we may be premature in thinking he's going to be moved to 2nd. Rafy better pick up his game or he might be fighting for a starting job come next spring. |
| 3 | 6/15/87 | Josh Lindblom | Lindblom is displaying excellent command and while his dominance has fallen off lately for his first full season in professional ball he's been somewhat impressive. If he kept up his April work he'd really be something. Three month K Rate has gone from 23.5 to 18.3 to 15.5 while his walk rate has risen from 2.6 to 6.1 to 8.3. His FIP in the Southern League was 3.34 which would have been good for 6th in the league. The Dodgers have jacked him around from starting to relief work and now they have promoted him to AAA. They may have a duel purpose in using him in both roles. One is to reduce his innings in his first professional season and the second is to get him ready if need be to help in the bullpen in the 2nd half. |
| 4 | 10/19/84 | James McDonald | Jmac struggled during his original foray as the 5th starter, as his noted command simpley left him, and once his command was gone his mental ability to focus was gone. Sent to AAA to regain his game, he took a few starts to get things under control but once he did, he looked like the JMac of old with two brilliant starts in a row. Those games got the Dodgers attention and he's back with the big club though in the bullpen for the time being. I'd have him lower if it looks like his future is only going to be in the bullpen but I think he will get another shot to make good on his promise. |
| 5 | 4/22/88 | Dee Gordon | No Dodger prospect has put themselves on the map like Dee Gordon. He was profiled last week and while he has moved up the rankings here, I need to see more before I'm ready to make him our top prospect. Most of the drooling is because of his "raw" talent and when that raw talent starts turning into more production I'll concede. Until then I'd like to see better plate discipline, more gap power, and some defense. The speed is unquestioned, maybe the fastest player in the organization he leads the MWL in stolen bases but he's also 2nd in the league in being caught (40/14). Excellent average, but with a K rate of 15%, a walk rate of only 6.4, and an ISOP of .094 he's still a work in progress. I'm taking the scouts word here and moving him up but he is 21 in the low A league. |
| 6 | 8/11/88 | Andrew Lambo | Another highly touted prospect who has just muddled through his first full season of AA ball, I'd be worried if he wasn't only 20 years old. He's holding his own but not showing the skills of the elite hitter he will need to be to man LF. With an ISOP of only .160 in combination of a walk rate below 10% he's got a lot of work to do but has plenty of time to get that work in. Those of you hoping to see him contribute by 2010 will have to reset your expectations. |
| 7 | 4/1/89 | Chris Withrow | Going in to the season I think most had Withrow behind Martin and after April it certainly looked like that was the right call. With June ending, I'm moving Withrow ahead of Martin because they are the same age (two month difference) and Withrow is doing his work in the offensive fueled California League. His ERA of 5.22 is not very glittery but his FIP of 3.60 belies the skills. Like many of our hard throwing kids, he's got to work on his command. With a K Rate in excess of 25% he also has a walk rate in double digits. Even though he was our number one pick in 2007 this is first real taste of professional baseball. Doing this work as a 20 year old in the Cal League is impressive. He might be the best prospect working in the Cal League at the moment when you take age into account. He's no April Fool. |
| 8 | 6/6/89 | Ethan Martin | Ethan Martin came into season with a lot of fanfare and proceeded to earn all the hyperbole with a stellar April. Once April was in the books his first professional work with the Loons was getting compared to Clayton Kershaw. With June now in the books those comparisons have been tucked away as the K/BB ratios are headed in the wrong direction big time. The three month trend in K Rate has moved from an extraordinary 32.9 % to a worrisome 14.7%. The Walk rate of 8.9% jumped to 18.4 in May and then dropped a little to 13.7%. Dead arm? Maybe, he hasn't struck out more then three hitters in any start in June. |
| 9 | 2/13/90 | Nathan Eovaldi | Eovaldi is the youngest player on this list at 19 years old. He had trouble in April but has since righted the ship. Everything looks good except the nominal K rate as he doesn't miss enough bats with the stuff he has. On the other hand they don't get good wood on his stuff either as he's only given up one home run in 14 appearances. After getting lit up for seven runs in one inning on May 16th, he's thrown 31 innings, given up only two runs, 20 hits, with 19 K's and 10 walks. Our Loon contact said the scouts were just as excited about Eovaldi's stuff as Martins when they saw them pitch this spring. If the K Rate starts to pick up he might zoom up this chart. Pitching at 19 in the Midwest League and being successful is good stuff. |
| 10 | 11/13/86 | Joshua Bell | If Josh Bell can do more of what he did in May and less of what he did in June then we might have something. His big bugaboo coming into the season was an escalated K rate of over 23% every year in the minors. This year he's managed to keep that below 20% but at a cost as his excellent walk rate is regressing with each passing month from 17% to 12% to 6%. His ISOP of .190 is the highest since his rookie season and while it may not seem that high it is good for 8th in the Southern League. |
| 11 | 6/27/86 | Kyle Russell | The numbers look great but he's a 23 year old playing in low A ball and still striking out 30% of the time. He gave us some hope when he dropped his K Rate to 25% in April but it has been on the rise since then. His walk rate is a decent 11.4% but that is not stellar. The ISOP leads the league at .285, the slug% of .567 leads the league. He's 2nd in wOBA. Just promote him already and let us see what he can do against advanced pitching. At 23 in low A it is hard to evaluate him but he does struggle against LHP. |
| 12 | 3/26/87 | Steven Caseres | The Dodgers have a trio of hitters in the Cal League that have had what I'd call breakout seasons for them. From Trayvon Robinson to Scott Van Slyke to Steven Caseres they have all put themselves on the prospect map. Caseres intrigues me the most because of his combination of power and patience. He's top 10 in the league in ISOP (.259), OBA (.407), Slug% (.565) and wOBA (.407) but also struggles against LHP. |
| 13 | 8/31/87 | Steve Johnson | Steve Johnson came into the season as soft tossing RH who projected to be little more then a possible end of rotation arm. As we head into July he's 2nd in the California League in strikeouts and and has already struck out more hitters this sesaon then in any other professional season. Still only 21, he won't turn 22 until late August. His bugaboo has been the long ball but it is the California League where home runs are launched as often as Hollywood launches a sequel. |
| 14 | 6/10/87 | Tim Sexton | Tough call for me here between Tim Sexton and Jon Redding. I'm going with the control artist. Sexton is walking only 4% of his batters and is 2nd in the league with a 3.01 ERA. His FIP is good for sixth at 3.63. He's getting 56% GB which is keeping his home runs down in the Cal League. |
| 15 | 3/11/88 | Pedro Baez | The 21 year old Baez will be the lone Dodger to represent the team at the Futures game. His star dulled some last year but he's trying to remove some of the tarnish. Maybe Trayvon Robinson should be here but I had to give some props to the Dodgers choice to rep the team in the futures game. |
Players who have peaked my interest this year after failing to make the top 30 list. Jamie Hoffman, Charlie Haeger, Javy Guerra, Paul Koss, Eduardo Perez, Scott Van Slyke, Trayvon Robinson, Nick Buss
DeWitt, Hu, and Abreu no longer have rookie status but are part of the discussion for team depth. None of the three have done anything to earn a spot on the major league roster but I still have hope for DeWitt and Abreu. I've given up on Hu being anything more then Juan Castro.
Austin Gallagher has been a big disappointment proving the scouts right who were not impressed. Adkins is about as big a whiff as Logan White has made on a top pick, unless it was Josh Wall.
Dodgers:
AJ Ellis--
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A+ - Inland Empire 66ers Team Statistics
Scott Van Slyke--MLB-Scott Van Slyke--
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A - Great Lake Loons Team Statistics
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Impressive list
My only real disagreement is that DeJesus probably shouldn’t be that high until he proves he’s healthy again.
I'd have moved him down
if I felt any of the position players had passed him but I just don’t feel they did. His leg injury should have no long lasting effects so I wasn’t worried about that. He’ll probably come back stronger since he can hit the weights for the upper body while his leg is healing.
I had him 8th last month
But i’m moving him up this month too because everybody else sorta had bad Junes.
by Chad Moriyama on Jul 1, 2009 12:38 AM PDT up reply actions
Steven Caseres should be higher then kyle russell. Hes younger plays in a higher level, strikes out less and walks more, has a higher average, OBP
is he ranked lower because of the position he plays? 1st rather then right?
No, it is
because he’s playing in an offensive league. I’ve no doubt that Kyle Russell would surpass those numbers if he was promoted to the California League. What Russell is doing when he hits the ball is noteworthy for a Loon player. Historically that park has been a tough offensive environment. Caseres has a line drive rate lower then 10% at the moment. As Kensai noted that has inflated his batting average. Both players have some huge holes in their games. Striking out with that propensity at their age in those leagues is not a good sign. But at least they hit the ball a long way when they do make contact. They have also both shown no ability to hit LHP.
Raw Talent
This is why scouts exist. Watching the two play, it’s clear the Russell has more upside.
Devaris Gordon’s numbers are not awe inspiring, but he’s generating hype because of his tools, because he projects well. His numbers are not as good as Pedroza’s but he’s the better prospect right now, without question.
by Chad Moriyama on Jul 1, 2009 12:39 AM PDT up reply actions
Good Stuff
Interesting list and great write up. I would Bell a tad higher maybe at at 8. His season has been impressive considering he also missed a lot of ABs last year due to injury.
I think Gallagher and Miller have been the biggest “disappointments” this far. With Robinson, and Johnson being the “surprises”.
Greg Miller?
Did we really expect him to turn things around this year?
Gallagher is a huge disappointment for me as well. I saw him play, and I thought he looked quite legit, with hopes that he could add more power this year. Epic fail, thus far.
by Chad Moriyama on Jul 1, 2009 12:45 AM PDT up reply actions
Hmm...
I’d have to disagree then, depending on what he expected from him.
4.68 FIP with a 65.2% GB rate. Still has promise, and was never a big time prospect.
by Chad Moriyama on Jul 1, 2009 2:33 AM PDT up reply actions
Yea Justin Miller
Not a stud prospect but considered a sleeper by most. I just figured there would be some improvement. He’s still getting ground balls but he’s also walking a ton of guys and is still very hittable.
Athletic, switch-hitting, gap to gap pwr, ability to hit for avg, base stealing ability, plays up the middle of the diamond with range.
How many of those guys can you find in the minors? I’m waiting…………..(Yawn) I’m sitting here wondering why Mr Robinson doesnt get more props. There isnt any doubt that he’s the the #2 OF prospect in the Dodgers org behind Lambo. Find me another CF in the minors that is hitting above .300 with 25 plus 2B’s, 10 or more HR’s and more that 30 SB’s…..Not to mention good defensive abilities and the ability to run sub 4.0 times down the line. He can drop a bunt or leave the hard from bothsides of the dish at any time. Oh yeah, almost forgot he’s only 21. Oh yeah almost forgot, he hit over .300 in the Cal league last yr in the second half. Not complaining here, just stating the facts.
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