Bullpen Management
by Brendan Scolari on Jun 5, 2009 3:37 PM PDT
in Research
25 comments
One important way a manager can effect his team's performance is through bullpen management. A manager needs to bring in his relievers in the right situations, getting his best relievers in when the game is on the line. We can look at how Joe Torre is doing in this aspect of management using a stat called Leverage index. Leverage Index (LI) measures the importance of a game situation with a single number. According to Fangraphs Leverage Index is defined as:
"A measure of how important a particular situation is in a baseball game depending on the inning, score, outs, and number of players on base, created by Tom Tango."
The average LI is 1. This is the LI in a neutral game situation. In a blowout, the LI goes down because the situation is not as important. 60% of all game situations have a LI of less than 1. But if the score stays close, the LI goes up as you get into the later innings. 10% of all game situations have a LI of greater than 2. This is typically when a closer is used; the average closer has a LI of about 1.8 and the average set-up man about 1.3.
Obviously, you want to bring in your best relievers in the most important situations. Using gmLI (the average Leverage index when a pitcher enters a game) we can see how Dodger relievers are being used:
| gmLI | ERA | FIP | |
| Broxton | 2.03 | 1.33 | 1.27 |
| Wade | 1.76 | 5.12 | 3.36 |
| Kuo | 1.69 | 6.75 | 7.47 |
| Belisario | 1.32 | 2.18 | 3.61 |
| Troncoso | 1.15 | 1.83 | 2.78 |
| Ohman | 1.03 | 5.84 | 8.19 |
| Leach | 1.03 | 5.19 | 2.00 |
| McDonald | 1.01 | 1.69 | 3.72 |
| Weaver | 0.95 | 5.40 | 5.90 |
| Elbert | 0.63 | 7.11 | 7.89 |
| Mota | 0.56 | 6.04 | 5.35 |
In general, Torre has done a good job making sure the best relievers get in the most important game situations. Jonathan Broxton, easily the best reliever on the team, also leads in gmLI by a comfortable margin. Cory Wade has been used in the second most important game situations, and while he has struggled, his FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching, defined here) suggests that is mostly due to bad luck. After him comes Hong-Chih Kuo, who was the set-up man early on because of his amazing performance in 2008. After that you have the effective combo of Ronald Belisario and Ramon Troncoso, who are coming in more important game situations as they gain Torre's trust. And at the bottom of the list there's Jeff Weaver, Scott Elbert, and Guillermo Mota, generally considered the worst pitchers on the Dodgers so far this year.
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Good stuff
Nice to see it laid out like this.
Baseball-Reference started incorporating LI into the game logs, and since May 10, Troncoso’s average leverage is 1.78, so it is as you said, increasing as Torre has gained more trust in him.
by Eric Stephen on Jun 5, 2009 3:29 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Thanks
Yeah, Troncoso especially has had a huge discrepancy in the way he is being used now compared to the start of the season.
by Brendan Scolari on Jun 5, 2009 5:07 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ned took credit for that
in the Q&A when we brought up the fact that Troncoso was saving the bullpen. He said he told/askedJoe to use Troncoso.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Jun 5, 2009 5:09 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Indians option Fausto Carmona
…to the Rookie Arizona League.
Um, wow.
by silverwidow on Jun 5, 2009 3:30 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I saw a headline that he was optioned, but I didn’t know he was “Donrelled!!!”
by Eric Stephen on Jun 5, 2009 3:31 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
It will be funny
to see what he does against 18-year-old just drafted high school kids.
by silverwidow on Jun 5, 2009 3:33 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
They just want him to work on his mechanics
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Jun 5, 2009 3:56 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Lineup
Pierre, LF
Furcal, SS
Hudson, 2B
Blake, 3B
Loney, 1B
Martin, C
Ethier, RF
Kemp, CF
Milton, P
by Eric Stephen on Jun 5, 2009 3:30 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I’m not sure with this lineup we will ever score in the first inning again.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Jun 5, 2009 3:57 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Loney is scoring in the first inning tonight. Mark it down.
by Eric Stephen on Jun 5, 2009 4:00 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
That would be a very big inning.
I don’t want to doubt you but I doubt you.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Jun 5, 2009 4:10 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ouch – www.rotowire.com
Alberto Arias (P) HOU 6/5/2009
Arias was hit in the face with a throw prior to Friday’s game, the Houston Chronicle reports. Arias stayed down for several minutes before being carted off the field. No word yet on the severity (he will undergo tests for a concussion), but obviously Arias won’t be available out of the bullpen on Friday night.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Jun 5, 2009 4:16 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I wish we had
a elite true power hitter in the 3 hole.
by silverwidow on Jun 5, 2009 4:16 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
You won't have to wish too much longer
Less than a month away.
by Brendan Scolari on Jun 5, 2009 5:12 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oh, is everybody off the Weaver wagon already?
:o
by kensai on Jun 5, 2009 4:22 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I'm okay with him on the team
But he is in no way one of the better pitchers on the Dodgers.
by Brendan Scolari on Jun 5, 2009 5:09 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Who was on the Weaver bandwagon?
I think you did some analysis saying Weaver was a better bet then Milton.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Jun 5, 2009 5:12 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not a good measure
of Torre’s BP use. I would do it this way: We’ll look only at Broxton. Anytime the LI went above 3 after the fifth inning or above 2 after the seventh, see if Broxton was 1. available and 2. brought in. My guess is that Broxton will have been brought in far more frequently in low leverage, but “save” situations as compared to high leverage, but unlikely to stay in for the “save”. If that is true, the Torre is doing a crappy job, regardless of where Broxton lands on the gmLI average. It would, in fact, be difficult for Broxton to not lead in average gmLI if you follow the rule that “In the ninth inning, in a save situation, I will play Broxton, otherwise I won’t.”
by Paul Scott on Jun 5, 2009 9:00 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
OTOH
If:
“the average closer has a LI of about 1.8”, and
“10% of all game situations have a LI of greater than 2”,
then,
I would estimate that closers are about 40% of the time or so seeing situations that happen only 10% of time. That seems pretty darn good to me. (And sometimes games never have those situations and closers are just getting in their work.)
If a game has a situation with an LI above 3 in the sixth or seventh, or above 2 in the eighth, I wonder how what % of the time that game sees another high LI situation where you wished you hadn’t already used your best reliever.
by David Young on Jun 5, 2009 11:06 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
But
Does any manager use relievers the way you suggest? This was not just to show Broxton’s use but also the rest of the bullpen as well, and I think the relievers have been managed pretty well.
by Brendan Scolari on Jun 5, 2009 11:37 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
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