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Bullpen Management

One important way a manager can effect his team's performance is through bullpen management. A manager needs to bring in his relievers in the right situations, getting his best relievers in when the game is on the line. We can look at how Joe Torre is doing in this aspect of management using a stat called Leverage index. Leverage Index (LI) measures the importance of a game situation with a single number. According to Fangraphs Leverage Index is defined as:

"A measure of how important a particular situation is in a baseball game depending on the inning, score, outs, and number of players on base, created by Tom Tango."

The average LI is 1. This is the LI in a neutral game situation. In a blowout, the LI goes down because the situation is not as important. 60% of all game situations have a LI of less than 1. But if the score stays close, the LI goes up as you get into the later innings. 10% of all game situations have a LI of greater than 2. This is typically when a closer is used; the average closer has a LI of about 1.8 and the average set-up man about 1.3.

Obviously, you want to bring in your best relievers in the most important situations. Using gmLI (the average Leverage index when a pitcher enters a game) we can see how Dodger relievers are being used:

gmLI ERA FIP
Broxton 2.03 1.33 1.27
Wade 1.76 5.12 3.36
Kuo 1.69 6.75 7.47
Belisario 1.32 2.18 3.61
Troncoso 1.15 1.83 2.78
Ohman 1.03 5.84 8.19
Leach 1.03 5.19 2.00
McDonald 1.01 1.69 3.72
Weaver 0.95 5.40 5.90
Elbert 0.63 7.11 7.89
Mota 0.56 6.04 5.35

In general, Torre has done a good job making sure the best relievers get in the most important game situations. Jonathan Broxton, easily the best reliever on the team, also leads in gmLI by a comfortable margin. Cory Wade has been used in the second most important game situations, and while he has struggled, his FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching, defined here) suggests that is mostly due to bad luck. After him comes Hong-Chih Kuo, who was the set-up man early on because of his amazing performance in 2008. After that you have the effective combo of Ronald Belisario and Ramon Troncoso, who are coming in more important game situations as they gain Torre's trust. And at the bottom of the list there's Jeff Weaver, Scott Elbert, and Guillermo Mota, generally considered the worst pitchers on the Dodgers so far this year.

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Good stuff

Nice to see it laid out like this.

Baseball-Reference started incorporating LI into the game logs, and since May 10, Troncoso’s average leverage is 1.78, so it is as you said, increasing as Torre has gained more trust in him.

by Eric Stephen on Jun 5, 2009 3:29 PM PDT reply actions  

Thanks

Yeah, Troncoso especially has had a huge discrepancy in the way he is being used now compared to the start of the season.

by Brendan Scolari on Jun 5, 2009 5:07 PM PDT up reply actions  

Ned took credit for that

in the Q&A when we brought up the fact that Troncoso was saving the bullpen. He said he told/askedJoe to use Troncoso.

Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen

by Phil Gurnee on Jun 5, 2009 5:09 PM PDT up reply actions  

Also, nice picture :)

by Eric Stephen on Jun 5, 2009 3:29 PM PDT reply actions  

Indians option Fausto Carmona

…to the Rookie Arizona League.

Um, wow.

by silverwidow on Jun 5, 2009 3:30 PM PDT reply actions  

I saw a headline that he was optioned, but I didn’t know he was “Donrelled!!!”

by Eric Stephen on Jun 5, 2009 3:31 PM PDT up reply actions  

It will be funny

to see what he does against 18-year-old just drafted high school kids.

by silverwidow on Jun 5, 2009 3:33 PM PDT up reply actions  

They just want him to work on his mechanics

Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen

by Phil Gurnee on Jun 5, 2009 3:56 PM PDT up reply actions  

Lineup

Pierre, LF
Furcal, SS
Hudson, 2B
Blake, 3B
Loney, 1B
Martin, C
Ethier, RF
Kemp, CF
Milton, P

by Eric Stephen on Jun 5, 2009 3:30 PM PDT reply actions  

I’m not sure with this lineup we will ever score in the first inning again.

Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen

by Phil Gurnee on Jun 5, 2009 3:57 PM PDT reply actions  

Loney is scoring in the first inning tonight. Mark it down.

by Eric Stephen on Jun 5, 2009 4:00 PM PDT up reply actions  

That would be a very big inning.

I don’t want to doubt you but I doubt you.

Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen

by Phil Gurnee on Jun 5, 2009 4:10 PM PDT up reply actions  

Ouch – www.rotowire.com

Alberto Arias (P) HOU 6/5/2009
Arias was hit in the face with a throw prior to Friday’s game, the Houston Chronicle reports. Arias stayed down for several minutes before being carted off the field. No word yet on the severity (he will undergo tests for a concussion), but obviously Arias won’t be available out of the bullpen on Friday night.

Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen

by Phil Gurnee on Jun 5, 2009 4:16 PM PDT reply actions  

I'm okay with him on the team

But he is in no way one of the better pitchers on the Dodgers.

by Brendan Scolari on Jun 5, 2009 5:09 PM PDT up reply actions  

Who was on the Weaver bandwagon?

I think you did some analysis saying Weaver was a better bet then Milton.

Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen

by Phil Gurnee on Jun 5, 2009 5:12 PM PDT up reply actions  

Did I?

Well then I agree with myself. I just think they both suck.

Milton just hasn’t had the opportunity to prove it yet while on the DL.

by Chad Moriyama on Jun 16, 2009 3:46 AM PDT up reply actions  

Not a good measure

of Torre’s BP use. I would do it this way: We’ll look only at Broxton. Anytime the LI went above 3 after the fifth inning or above 2 after the seventh, see if Broxton was 1. available and 2. brought in. My guess is that Broxton will have been brought in far more frequently in low leverage, but “save” situations as compared to high leverage, but unlikely to stay in for the “save”. If that is true, the Torre is doing a crappy job, regardless of where Broxton lands on the gmLI average. It would, in fact, be difficult for Broxton to not lead in average gmLI if you follow the rule that “In the ninth inning, in a save situation, I will play Broxton, otherwise I won’t.”

by Paul Scott on Jun 5, 2009 9:00 PM PDT reply actions  

OTOH

If:
“the average closer has a LI of about 1.8”, and
“10% of all game situations have a LI of greater than 2”,
then,
I would estimate that closers are about 40% of the time or so seeing situations that happen only 10% of time. That seems pretty darn good to me. (And sometimes games never have those situations and closers are just getting in their work.)

If a game has a situation with an LI above 3 in the sixth or seventh, or above 2 in the eighth, I wonder how what % of the time that game sees another high LI situation where you wished you hadn’t already used your best reliever.

by David Young on Jun 5, 2009 11:06 PM PDT up reply actions  

But

Does any manager use relievers the way you suggest? This was not just to show Broxton’s use but also the rest of the bullpen as well, and I think the relievers have been managed pretty well.

by Brendan Scolari on Jun 5, 2009 11:37 PM PDT up reply actions  

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Pos No Player 2012 Salary
C 17 Ellis $490,000
1B 7 Loney $6,375,000
2B 37 Herrera $375,082
3B 6 Hairston $2,250,000
SS 9 Gordon $485,000
LF 23 Abreu $401,311
CF 10 Gwynn $850,000
RF 16 Ethier $10,950,000

OF/1B 33 Van Slyke $388,197
2B/3B 3 Kennedy $800,000
OF/1B 30 Sands $375,175
IF 13 DeJesus $448,992
C 18 Treanor $850,000

SP 22 Kershaw $6,000,000
SP 58 Billingsley $9,000,000
SP 29 Lilly $12,000,000
SP 44
Harang $3,000,000
SP 35 Capuano $3,000,000

CL 74
Jansen $491,000
RHP 52 Lindblom $483,000
RHP 51 Belisario $414,426
RHP 54 Guerra $488,000
RHP 28
Wright $900,000
LHP 57 Elbert $488,500
RHP 60 Coffey $1,000,000

DL 27 Kemp $10,000,000
DL 21 Rivera $4,000,000
DL 12 Sellers $481,000
DL 5 Uribe $8,000,000
DL 55 Guerrier $4,750,000
DL 14 Ellis $2,500,000
60DL 36 Hawksworth $495,000
60DL 41 De La Rosa $485,000

AA 50 Eovaldi $7,885
AAA 56 Antonini $7,869



Manny $8,087,432 deferred


Andruw $3,375,000 deferred


Pierre $3,050,000 deferred
Furcal $3,000,000 deferred
Kuroda $2,000,000 deferred
Garland $1,500,000 option buyout
Blake $1,250,000 option buyout
DFA 66 MacDougal $650,000

Totals
$115,942,869

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