Improbable Comebacks

by Brendan Scolari on Jun 7, 2009 3:37 AM PDT in News Comment 11 comments

Los Angeles Dodgers' Andre Ethier, right, celebrates with teammates after hitting a game-wining RBI single during the ninth inning of a Major League Baseball game, Friday, June 5, 2009, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill)

More photos » by Mark J. Terrill - AP

5 months ago: Los Angeles Dodgers' Andre Ethier, right, celebrates with teammates after hitting a game-wining RBI single during the ninth inning of a Major League Baseball game, Friday, June 5, 2009, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill)

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In each of the last two games the Dodgers have come to the plate in the 9th inning against Phillies closer Brad Lidge trailing by one run. In each of the last two games Brad Lidge has blown the lead and the Dodgers have gone on to win the game.

On Friday the Dodgers were down 3-2 when the bottom of the 9th began. Brad Lidge got two quick outs, striking out Rafael Furcal and getting Orlando Hudson to ground out. At this point the Dodgers had a 4% win expectancy. Casey Blake then singled, raising the WE to 8%. After that James Loney walked (15.6% WE) and Russell Martin reached on Pedro Feliz's error, but the Dodgers still only had a 25% WE. However, Andre Ethier's double won the game and gave the Dodgers their first improbable comeback. Here's the win probability chart for Friday's game:

via www.fangraphs.com

On Saturday the Dodgers began the bottom of the 9th down 2-1. After Mark Loretta grounded out to start the inning the Dodgers WE was down to 9.5%. However, Rafael Furcal subsequently smashed one of Lidge's sliders just over the wall in right field to tie the score and rocket their WE up to 56.9%. The game stayed even until the bottom of the 12th, when on a full count with two outs (and the WE at 53%) Andre Ethier hit a home run to center field to send the crowd home happy again. Here's the win probability chart for Saturday's game:

via www.fangraphs.com

So in the last two days the Dodgers have won games where their odds of winning at one point were 4% and 9.5%. What were the odds of winning both of those games? 0.38%!! Put more simply, 1 out of every 263 times a team gets put into these two game situations, they end up winning both games. The Dodgers were that one team. In case you hadn't noticed, this is a pretty special team we're watching.

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Comments

G-d is a Dodger fan

Seriously, I haven’t felt such pride in Dodger Blue since the great teams of the ’60’s.

by Connector on Jun 7, 2009 8:42 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Still staying humble

I’ve watched this team for too long to start thinking “World Series Champions.” But man, am I having fun watching them

by UCLAClass82 on Jun 7, 2009 8:51 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Oh yeah

I’m not crowning them yet, but this still looks like an incredible team.

by Brendan Scolari on Jun 7, 2009 11:24 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'll believe it when.....

…they get the last out of the last game of the 2009 World Series before I believe they’re championship material. It’s been a very long 21 years since 1988 and I,m not ready to jump on the WS bandwagon just yet. But boy am I itching to….

by HappyHooten on Jun 7, 2009 9:38 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Welcome to True Blue LA.

We are all itching to.

by Brendan Scolari on Jun 7, 2009 11:25 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

WE felt right

In the first game, it fet certain that the Phillies would win. I almost couldn’t bear watching, but stuck with it until the totally improbable win. In the second game, it felt very unlikely until Furcal got his homer. Then I thought the Dodgers would win one way or another – it helps to bat last and have the chance to right whatever might go wrong in the top half of an inning – but nothing did. 56% – yeah.

by berkowit28 on Jun 7, 2009 10:11 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs