Improbable Comebacks

by Brendan Scolari on Jun 7, 2009 3:37 AM PDT in News Comment 11 comments

In each of the last two games the Dodgers have come to the plate in the 9th inning against Phillies closer Brad Lidge trailing by one run. In each of the last two games Brad Lidge has blown the lead and the Dodgers have gone on to win the game.

On Friday the Dodgers were down 3-2 when the bottom of the 9th began. Brad Lidge got two quick outs, striking out Rafael Furcal and getting Orlando Hudson to ground out. At this point the Dodgers had a 4% win expectancy. Casey Blake then singled, raising the WE to 8%. After that James Loney walked (15.6% WE) and Russell Martin reached on Pedro Feliz's error, but the Dodgers still only had a 25% WE. However, Andre Ethier's double won the game and gave the Dodgers their first improbable comeback. Here's the win probability chart for Friday's game:

via www.fangraphs.com

On Saturday the Dodgers began the bottom of the 9th down 2-1. After Mark Loretta grounded out to start the inning the Dodgers WE was down to 9.5%. However, Rafael Furcal subsequently smashed one of Lidge's sliders just over the wall in right field to tie the score and rocket their WE up to 56.9%. The game stayed even until the bottom of the 12th, when on a full count with two outs (and the WE at 53%) Andre Ethier hit a home run to center field to send the crowd home happy again. Here's the win probability chart for Saturday's game:

via www.fangraphs.com

So in the last two days the Dodgers have won games where their odds of winning at one point were 4% and 9.5%. What were the odds of winning both of those games? 0.38%!! Put more simply, 1 out of every 263 times a team gets put into these two game situations, they end up winning both games. The Dodgers were that one team. In case you hadn't noticed, this is a pretty special team we're watching.

0 recs | Comment 11 comments | Share

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

G-d is a Dodger fan

Seriously, I haven’t felt such pride in Dodger Blue since the great teams of the ’60’s.

by Connector on Jun 7, 2009 8:42 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Still staying humble

I’ve watched this team for too long to start thinking “World Series Champions.” But man, am I having fun watching them

by UCLAClass82 on Jun 7, 2009 8:51 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Oh yeah

I’m not crowning them yet, but this still looks like an incredible team.

by Brendan Scolari on Jun 7, 2009 11:24 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'll believe it when.....

…they get the last out of the last game of the 2009 World Series before I believe they’re championship material. It’s been a very long 21 years since 1988 and I,m not ready to jump on the WS bandwagon just yet. But boy am I itching to….

by HappyHooten on Jun 7, 2009 9:38 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Welcome to True Blue LA.

We are all itching to.

by Brendan Scolari on Jun 7, 2009 11:25 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

WE felt right

In the first game, it fet certain that the Phillies would win. I almost couldn’t bear watching, but stuck with it until the totally improbable win. In the second game, it felt very unlikely until Furcal got his homer. Then I thought the Dodgers would win one way or another – it helps to bat last and have the chance to right whatever might go wrong in the top half of an inning – but nothing did. 56% – yeah.

by berkowit28 on Jun 7, 2009 10:11 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

She's Gone

Taking off early before the “She’s Gone” thread is up. Could someone please make my entry for me.

Kemp
6th inning
381 Feet

by Xeifrank on Jun 7, 2009 11:04 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Don't think Eric Stephen is going to be around for today's edition.

by Tripon on Jun 7, 2009 11:12 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

On the plus side

they will announce the distance in the press box so he will know before anyone how far Furcal’s first inning home run went.

Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen

by Phil Gurnee on Jun 7, 2009 12:35 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Haha

I didn’t know that, that’s pretty cool.

by Brendan Scolari on Jun 7, 2009 12:39 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

No problem.

by Brendan Scolari on Jun 7, 2009 11:23 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Comments For This Post Are Closed

Search

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recommended FanPosts

Recent FanPosts

+ New FanPost All FanPosts >

2010 Dodger Payroll

Pos	No	Player	2010 Salary
C	55	Martin	$5,050,000
1B	7	Loney	$3,100,000
2B	33	DeWitt	$410,000*
3B	23	Blake	$6,000,000
SS	15	Furcal	$8,500,000
LF	99	Manny	$7,267,760
CF	27	Kemp	$4,000,000
RF	16	Ethier	$6,000,000

2B/3B	14	Carroll	$1,350,000
2B/3B/1B	3	Belliard	$825,000
C	12	Ausmus	$850,000
OF	5	Johnson	$800,000
SS	60	Hu	$405,000*

SP	22	Kershaw	$425,000*
SP	58	Billingsley	$3,850,000
SP	18	Kuroda	$14,100,000
SP	44	Padilla	$4,025,000
SP	50	Stults	$405,000*

CL	51	Broxton	$4,000,000
LHP	52	Sherrill	$4,500,000
LHP	56	Kuo	$950,000
RHP	67	Troncoso	$425,000*
RHP	54	Belisario	$425,000*
RHP	31	McDonald	$425,000*
RHP	68	Monasterios	$460,000*

		Pierre	$4,000,000
		Andruw	$3,600,000
		Schmidt	$2,000,000
		Wolf	$2,000,000
		Hudson	$1,440,000
		Nomar	$1,250,000
		Ohman	$200,000
		Zerpa	$35,000
		Hoffmann	($50,000)

Others on 40-man roster (total: 39)
RHP	37	Haeger
RHP	73	Link
RHP	47	Wade
C	9	Ellis
C	71	May
SS	87	DeJesus
OF	75	Paul
OF	17	Repko	$500,000
RHP	64	Guerra**
RHP	74	Jansen**
LHP	59	Leach**
RHP	49	Schlichting**
LHP	57	Elbert**
OF	62	Robinson**

Totals			$93,522,760
Red = arbitration Asterisk () = estimated * = currently in minor league camp
For more detailed information, click here.

True Blue LA: An SB Nation Community

Network Bar

True Blue LA -