Series Preview: San Diego Padres
by Eric Stephen on Jun 8, 2009 1:00 PM PDT
in Opponents
33 comments
The Padres have been a very up-and-down team this season, alternating hot stretches and cold stretches:
| April 6-18 | 9-3 |
| April 19 - May 14 |
4-19 |
| May 15 - May 25 | 10-0 |
| May 26 - Sunday | 3-8 |
| Overall Record |
26-30 |
Luckily for the Dodgers, the Padres come to town on one of those cold streaks, as they have lost eight of their last 11 games, through Sunday.
One constant for the Padres has been Adrian Gonzalez, who leads the majors with 22 home runs, including 15 away from the pitcher paradise that is Petco Park. Unfortunately for Gonzalez, he happens to play the same position as the only player better than him in the National League, Albert Pujols. Gonzalez is second in the league to Pujols in Equivalent Average, Adjusted Equivalent Runs, and Adjusted Runs Above Position.
The Padres top three players by VORP were all acquired in shrewd trades by GM Kevin Towers:
- Gonzalez (25.7 VORP) -- is there a better trade in the last decade than Gonzalez and Chris Young (and Terrmel Sledge) for Adam Eaton and Akinori Otsuka (and Billy Killian)?
- Scott Hairston (19.4) -- cast aside by Arizona, then acquired for reliever Leo Rosales, all Hairston has done since coming to San Diego is hit (75 OPS+ with Arizona, 133 OPS+ with the Padres)
- Heath Bell (10.8) -- the Padres got their replacement for closer Trevor Hoffman, along with Royce Ring, for minor league filler Jon Adkins and Ben Johnson (who has been out of baseball since 2007)
The Dodgers won't have to face Hairston, however, because he was placed on the disabled list last Wednesday, with a strained left biceps.
The Padres once again have a Tony Gwynn roaming their outfield, but this version is the son of the former Hall of Famer. Gwynn, Jr., who as a Brewer helped knock the Padres out of the playoffs in 2007, has showed an increase in patience since coming to San Diego last month, with eight walks in 55 plate appearances.
This series is a short one, the rare two-game series, and all four starting pitchers have first names that start with C:
Tuesday, 7:10pm: Tall Chris Young (4-4, 4.54 FIP) vs. Chad Billingsley (7-3, 2.79 FIP)
Wednesday, 7:10pm: Chad Gaudin (2-4, 3.95 FIP) vs. Clayton Kershaw (3-4, 3.97 FIP)
Billingsley is 6-3 with a 2.45 ERA in 11 career starts against the Padres, and has given up more than two runs against them in only two starts.
Nobody has given up more stolen bases from 2006-2009 than Young. He has allowed 119 steals in his last 91 starts, and only six would-be stealers have been caught, for an astonishing, dare I say Phillies-like 95.2% success rate. The Dodgers have won four of their last five games started by Young, although they only have five stolen bases in those five games.
Kershaw is 2-0 with a 2.70 ERA in five career starts against the Padres. He has given up a total of one run in two starts this season, yet doesn't have a win.
Gaudin is penciled in to start Wednesday, even though he turned in two innings of relief in the Padres' 18-inning marathon game Sunday against Arizona, a mere two days after his last start.
| 2009 Padres | |
| Record | 26-30, 3rd NL West |
| Runs Scored | 3.95/gm (15th in NL) |
| wOBA | .311 (15th in NL) |
| Runs Allowed | 4.84/gm (13th in NL) |
| FIP | 4.30 (10th in NL) |
The Dodgers have won four straight home games vs. San Diego, and nine of their last ten against the Padres at Dodger Stadium.
| Season Series | |
| April 6 | Dodgers 4, Padres 1 |
| April 7 | Padres 4, Dodgers 2 |
| April 8 | Dodgers 5, Padres 2 |
| April 9 | Padres 4, Dodgers 3 |
| April 30 | Dodgers 8, Padres 5 |
| May 1 | Dodgers 1, Padres 0 |
| May 2 | Dodgers 2, Padres 1 |
| May 3 | Dodgers 7, Padres 3 |
| Dodgers Lead 6-2 |
|
Without Hairston in the lineup, there is really nobody for the Dodgers to fear besides Adrian Gonzalez. Expect him to be walked often with men on base. The Dodgers miss Jake Peavy as well in this two-game set, and the Padres' bullpen has thrown 35.2 innings through their first six games of the June. I never like to predict a sweep, even of a two-game set, but this series is a golden opportunity for the Dodgers to feast on San Diego.
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Tony Abreu has been placed on the disabled list at Double-A Chattanooga with a new injury – left wrist tendinitis.
by Tripon on Jun 8, 2009 1:24 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Draft is 24 hours away
Imagine going into an event that could possibly change a franchise and having no idea as to how it’ll end up.
At least since 2006, we have had some clues as to who Logan White was interested in — Kershaw in ’06 being THE catch amongst high school pitchers. But this year, without having a true first rounder, it is so hard to speculate and most mocks end at pick #32, which is when the first round concludes.
My biggest want at this point is an elite (gotta slip that in) HS catching prospect. I know White’s history is to develop athletic players as catchers down the line, but I would consider this to be a pressing need, not withstanding Tony Delmonico’s progress in Low A. We need options for beyond 2012 (and possibly sooner).
by silverwidow on Jun 8, 2009 2:56 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
There are some catching prospects that should be close to available at 36
But I don’t see White picking anyone except a right handed high school pitcher.
by bhsportsguy on Jun 8, 2009 3:07 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
or a
left handed College pitcher
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Jun 8, 2009 3:10 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Actaully any player after the first round, the odds on them making the show
Drops by a lot.
by bhsportsguy on Jun 8, 2009 3:13 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
While that may be true
I have confidence that White has a good enough eye for talent that a low round pick can eventually make it (Kemp, Martin, Broxton, etc).
by silverwidow on Jun 8, 2009 3:17 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Martin was the only really low pick of that group
Broxton was a supplemental or second, Kemp was a 6th.
And its unfair to hold him to the 2002-2003 standards.
And finally, as Phil has alluded to, he’s not perfect and whether its due to bad projections or budget reasons., he has not had as many hits from 2004-2007 as he did in 2002-2003 or 2008.
Which is fine, grabbing a Kershaw once every 4 years is more than most teams.
by bhsportsguy on Jun 8, 2009 3:26 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
My point
is that some of White’s best players came from outside the first round.
Anyway, it’s too soon to say he hasn’t hit from 04-07 because there are some potential IMPACT players from those drafts still in A/AA (Elbert, Bell, and Withrow — all three guys missing development time due to injuries, but are still top notch prospects). This doesn’t even take into account DeJesus, who was on the cusp of the big leagues before breaking his leg, and Lambo, who is very young for his level.
by silverwidow on Jun 8, 2009 4:10 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
However
Logan has done a lousy job with the supplemental first round. His two biggest failures during his tenure have been Adkins and Mattingly.
How many high school catchers not drafted in the first round turn out to be anything but filler? I have no idea the answer but I bet I could count them on one hand when looking at the current crop of starting catchers in the major leagues. The best athletes in high school are rarely catchers unless they are elite(Mauer), why do you want to draft one if they don’t have much of a chance to succeed?
My expectations for this draft are very low.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Jun 8, 2009 5:06 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
There's no defending those picks
Mattingly and Adkins indeed look like busts, but I think it’s worth noting that in each case, White had already made his prototypical high ceiling HS pick (Kershaw and Withrow). Perhaps he wanted to go in a different direction afterward.
This year, with the supplemental pick being #1 on his agenda, there’s no way he’ll take a flier on some low ceiling college guy.
by silverwidow on Jun 8, 2009 5:38 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Is there a Logan White house money theory too?
by David Young on Jun 8, 2009 5:45 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Probably
But he’ll have to make a “house money” pick later this year. :)
by silverwidow on Jun 8, 2009 5:48 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Good point
but Mattingley was a high school player.
I fully expected to be whining big time at this point in time about not having our 1st round pick but given the production of Hudson, we could hardly have done any better then signing him.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Jun 8, 2009 5:47 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
but Mattingley was a high school player.
I know, but it was the same idea — risk/reward. In Mattingly, they were taking a gamble on a toolsy, raw hitter. In Adkins, it was a polished college pitcher that, in theory, could’ve moved quickly up the chain.
They didn’t work out.
by silverwidow on Jun 8, 2009 5:53 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Plus we could potentially end up getting more picks for Hudson.
That would make the deal even better.
by Brendan Scolari on Jun 8, 2009 10:23 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe we can draft a 1st round talent at #36, then come to an agreement with him, only he backs out after agreeing to the deal, and he ends up going in the 1st round of the 2010 draft, which pushes down a stud pitcher we wouldn’t have received otherwise, and that new stud pitcher is way, way better than the 2009 guy.
Just sayin. :)
by Eric Stephen on Jun 8, 2009 5:47 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wouldn't have to really suck
in 2009 for that to payoff?
It is just amazing how the dominoes fell for us when Hochevar spurned us. It might turn out to be one of the luckiest things to ever happen to the Dodgers in this century.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Jun 8, 2009 5:51 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
It might turn out to be one of the luckiest things to ever happen to the Dodgers in this century.
Perhaps like a coin flip in 1979 for the Lakers.
by Eric Stephen on Jun 8, 2009 5:57 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Exactly
but then the whole Laker Dynasty has been based on luck.
1. Luck that they found a stupid enough team to trade them Lou Alcindor
2. Luck that Ted Septian owned a basketball team
3. Luck that Shaq wanted to play for Jerry West
4. Luck that Kobe Bryant lasted as long as he did because high school picks at the time were considered risky
5. Luck that Memphis is run by idiots
5. And of course the coin flip.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Jun 8, 2009 6:04 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Whoa, bitter Clipper fan! ;)
You left out:
- Luck that they found a stupid enough team to trade them Wilt Chamberlain
- Luck that they found a stupid enough team to sign an old Gail Goodrich in exchange for their #1 pick.
by David Young on Jun 8, 2009 6:23 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Actually I loved
all those lucky events. I’m even glad they got Pasol. It just amazes me how every time they need something, it happens, it is like pixie dust.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Jun 8, 2009 6:38 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
We will start a Draft Thread sometime tonight
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Jun 8, 2009 5:49 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Reasoning for the low expectations?
Sure, there’s no first rounder, but look at how many of our prospects and major leaguers weren’t picked in the first round anyways. And picking on White’s history the supplemental first round doesn’t really work because of the small sample size. There’s no reason he should be any worse picking there than in the 2nd round, 3rd round, etc.
by Brendan Scolari on Jun 8, 2009 10:25 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Dodger fans interested in wrong Padre
Check out this blog I wrote about the Dodgers in terms of Jake Peavy. I think Dodger fans are interested in the wrong Padre… What do you think?
by arty8u on Jun 8, 2009 3:28 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I'm pretty sure the padres won't trade a potential all star closer to the dodgers
you’re right they should go after him, but it’ll never happen
I'm nobody's fool, least of all yours
by BoulderDodger on Jun 8, 2009 4:08 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
They would if the Dodgers overpaid for him.
Like Ethan Martin and Andrew Lambo.
by Tripon on Jun 8, 2009 4:19 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
For various reasons
They are all the wrong Padre.
1. Contract too big, e.g., Peavy
2. Contract too small, i.e., too favorable for Padres to trade, e.g. Bell, A. Gonzalez
3. Player too crappy, e.g., most of the rest.
by David Young on Jun 8, 2009 5:47 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I have to disagree
Troncoso and Belisario are both doing really well, and if Kuo comes back we should be fully stocked in the bullpen. Bell won’t want to be a set up man, and obviously he can’t be the closer in LA. And lastly, I think teams usually overpay for relievers in trades, and I’m sure Colletti would too.
I’d go after Peavy if his price dropped (which it should considering no one else will give the Padres anything close to what they are asking from the Dodgers), or else I’d just forget the Padres.
by Brendan Scolari on Jun 8, 2009 10:32 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Good draft discussion above
I believe the system is broken. Instead of draft positions driving the cost of picks (as Selig desires), deals between teams and agents for players will become more prominent this year. The Dodgers, with picks 36, 56. 65, & 90-something, will be in a prime position to swoop in on talents who have been passed up on for whatever reason. In today’s economy [!!!], imagine turning down a cool mil because you may do better next year. Logan will do just fine. I’m very optimistic about tomorrow.
by kinbote on Jun 8, 2009 9:23 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
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