New July Contest - Name To Be Determined
by Eric Stephen on Jul 1, 2009 12:41 AM PDT
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PrintWelcome to our yet unnamed July contest. Please help us choose a name by voting in this poll.
The contest is about total bases for both teams in each Dodger game. For each game, you have to guess two things:
1) Combined Total Bases From Both Teams, including singles, doubles (2 bases), triples (3 bases), homers (4 bases), walks (1 base), HBP (1 base), and net stolen bases (SB - CS, 1 base)
2) First player to score a run in the game
As an example, last night's Dodgers/Rockies game featured 5 singles, 2 homers, 3 walks, and one net stolen base, so the number of total bases was 17. This was an extraordinarily low number. The first player to score was Brad Hawpe.
The most important thing is to guess the correct number of total bases. There cannot be multiple guesses of the same total bases.
The next most important thing is to guess the first player to score a run. There can be multiple guesses of the same player, but no identical guesses with the same total bases and player.
In case of a tie of total bases with no correct player scoring, under beats over.
If there is nobody within 10 total bases of the actual total, yet someone picks the correct player to score the first run of the game, that person will win.
Only guesses in this thread will count, and they must be received before the first pitch of the game.
The person who has the most wins at the end of June will win their choice of Bluetopia on DVD, a 2009 Dodger Media Guide, a copy of "100 Things Dodgers Fans Should Know & Do Before They Die" by Jon Weisman, or a 2009 Topps Dodgers' team baseball card set!
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Correct Guess: 30 Bases, First run: Andre ethier
Contestant one: Contestant two
30 bases 30 bases
Juan pierre matt kemp
Who wins?
Correct Guess: 30 Bases, First run: Andre ethier
Contestant one:
30 bases
Juan pierre
Contestant two:
30 bases
Matt Kemp
Who wins?
Good question
I changed it so you can’t guess the same number. Thanks for bringing that to my attention.
What is the range of total bases in a game within one standard deviation of the mean?
(And if you actually know that answer, don’t tell us – too big a tip on how to guess. Force us to do the research.)
If duplicate total bases aren’t allowed, isn’t there a danger that the most likely winning choices are exhausted within a small number of entires?
Not sure of the range, but I believe the Dodgers alone averaged 17 bases per game in June. And that was in a bad month.
Agreed about duplicates, but its better than dealing with ties.
by Eric Stephen on Jul 1, 2009 10:47 AM PDT up reply actions
Why not just have a different 2nd tie-breaker that is some kind of number guess instead of a player guess. Total PA, AB, Hits etc…, then ask people not to have the exact same guess #1 and guess #2. Dave may have a good point about reasonable guesses being exhausted if there are a lot of entries.
vr, Xei
After seeing the lineup, I think the boys may go slugfest city to impress EL MANIACO!
…if we’re allowed 1 change about an hour before the 1st pitch -
I’m adding 4 HR’s so change my total to 45 bases and I’ll stick with JP.
After seeing the lineup?
after i saw the lineup for Today i would have went with like 15 total bases
are we allowed to change guesses? Seems like this could get messy if people change guesses. For example, if the 29 guess was available maybe others would’ve made it and would like to change also.
vr, Xei
Mr. Mackey - "Changes are Bad"
I thought THE BISON was going to take advantage of the 2 spot
and CRUSH a couple out.
This contest reminds me of the metrics I used to use to track how my dating was going.
by David Young on Jul 1, 2009 9:58 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
Change
after doing some research i found out this game will be a very high scoring one. i should have done the research before i put my score in but sorry about that
44 total bases
Ethier
Simulator says...
28 total bases
Matt Kemp
Actually, it says 27 and Matt Kemp, but El Lay Dave snagged that guess. I will go with the next closest even though I am boxed in with a 29 guess on the other end.
vr, Xei
Lucky guess
by the rough estimator in my head.
Does your simulator account for day/night park differences, e.g., conventional wisdom (and perhaps stats) is that DS is much easier to HR at in the daytime as opposed to at night.
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