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Around SBN: 2012 Africa Cup Of Nations Final

New July Contest - Name To Be Determined

Welcome to our yet unnamed July contest.  Please help us choose a name by voting in this poll.

The contest is about total bases for both teams in each Dodger game.  For each game, you have to guess two things:

1) Combined Total Bases From Both Teams, including singles, doubles (2 bases), triples (3 bases), homers (4 bases), walks (1 base), HBP (1 base), and net stolen bases (SB - CS, 1 base)

2) First player to score a run in the game

As an example, last night's Dodgers/Rockies game featured 5 singles, 2 homers, 3 walks, and one net stolen base, so the number of total bases was 17.  This was an extraordinarily low number.  The first player to score was Brad Hawpe.

The most important thing is to guess the correct number of total bases.  There cannot be multiple guesses of the same total bases.

The next most important thing is to guess the first player to score a run.  There can be multiple guesses of the same player, but no identical guesses with the same total bases and player.

In case of a tie of total bases with no correct player scoring, under beats over.

If there is nobody within 10 total bases of the actual total, yet someone picks the correct player to score the first run of the game, that person will win.

Only guesses in this thread will count, and they must be received before the first pitch of the game.

The person who has the most wins at the end of June will win their choice of Bluetopia on DVD, a 2009 Dodger Media Guide, a copy of "100 Things Dodgers Fans Should Know & Do Before They Die" by Jon Weisman, or a 2009 Topps Dodgers' team baseball card set!

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Correct Guess: 30 Bases, First run: Andre ethier

Contestant one: Contestant two
30 bases 30 bases
Juan pierre matt kemp

Who wins?

by matthewmafa on Jul 1, 2009 1:08 AM PDT reply actions  

Correct Guess: 30 Bases, First run: Andre ethier

Contestant one:
30 bases
Juan pierre

Contestant two:
30 bases
Matt Kemp

Who wins?

by matthewmafa on Jul 1, 2009 1:10 AM PDT up reply actions  

Good question

I changed it so you can’t guess the same number. Thanks for bringing that to my attention.

by Eric Stephen on Jul 1, 2009 8:11 AM PDT up reply actions  

What is the range of total bases in a game within one standard deviation of the mean?

(And if you actually know that answer, don’t tell us – too big a tip on how to guess. Force us to do the research.)

If duplicate total bases aren’t allowed, isn’t there a danger that the most likely winning choices are exhausted within a small number of entires?

by David Young on Jul 1, 2009 10:36 AM PDT up reply actions  

Not sure of the range, but I believe the Dodgers alone averaged 17 bases per game in June. And that was in a bad month.

Agreed about duplicates, but its better than dealing with ties.

by Eric Stephen on Jul 1, 2009 10:47 AM PDT up reply actions  

Why not just have a different 2nd tie-breaker that is some kind of number guess instead of a player guess. Total PA, AB, Hits etc…, then ask people not to have the exact same guess #1 and guess #2. Dave may have a good point about reasonable guesses being exhausted if there are a lot of entries.
vr, Xei

by Xeifrank on Jul 1, 2009 10:57 AM PDT up reply actions  

I will mull it over tonight.

by Eric Stephen on Jul 1, 2009 11:13 AM PDT up reply actions  

29 total bases

Juan Pierre-sits-ville to score the 1st run

by Craig88USC on Jul 1, 2009 3:50 AM PDT reply actions  

After seeing the lineup, I think the boys may go slugfest city to impress EL MANIACO!

…if we’re allowed 1 change about an hour before the 1st pitch -

I’m adding 4 HR’s so change my total to 45 bases and I’ll stick with JP.

by Craig88USC on Jul 1, 2009 11:23 AM PDT up reply actions  

After seeing the lineup?

after i saw the lineup for Today i would have went with like 15 total bases

by matthewmafa on Jul 1, 2009 11:34 AM PDT up reply actions  

are we allowed to change guesses? Seems like this could get messy if people change guesses. For example, if the 29 guess was available maybe others would’ve made it and would like to change also.
vr, Xei

by Xeifrank on Jul 1, 2009 11:36 AM PDT up reply actions  

I agree

Guess changing will make this very messy indeed.

by David Young on Jul 1, 2009 11:42 AM PDT up reply actions  

Mr. Mackey - "Changes are Bad"

I thought THE BISON was going to take advantage of the 2 spot

and CRUSH a couple out.

by Craig88USC on Jul 1, 2009 1:11 PM PDT up reply actions  

33 TB

Blake

Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen

by Phil Gurnee on Jul 1, 2009 7:54 AM PDT reply actions  

35 TB
Juan Pierre

by Alex L on Jul 1, 2009 9:49 AM PDT reply actions  

This contest reminds me of the metrics I used to use to track how my dating was going.

by David Young on Jul 1, 2009 9:58 AM PDT reply actions   1 recs

+1

Maybe we should call the contest “The Dating Game”.
vr, Xei

by Xeifrank on Jul 1, 2009 10:13 AM PDT up reply actions  

27 total bases
The Bison

by David Young on Jul 1, 2009 10:38 AM PDT reply actions  

30 total bases
brad hawpe

by matthewmafa on Jul 1, 2009 10:54 AM PDT reply actions  

Change

after doing some research i found out this game will be a very high scoring one. i should have done the research before i put my score in but sorry about that

44 total bases
Ethier

by matthewmafa on Jul 1, 2009 11:11 AM PDT up reply actions  

are they letting the rabbits loose tonight?
vr, Xei

by Xeifrank on Jul 1, 2009 11:18 AM PDT up reply actions  

Simulator says...

28 total bases
Matt Kemp

Actually, it says 27 and Matt Kemp, but El Lay Dave snagged that guess. I will go with the next closest even though I am boxed in with a 29 guess on the other end.

vr, Xei

by Xeifrank on Jul 1, 2009 11:15 AM PDT reply actions  

I fixed it for ya..

Now you’re not boxed by a “29”.

by Craig88USC on Jul 1, 2009 11:26 AM PDT up reply actions  

Lucky guess

by the rough estimator in my head.

Does your simulator account for day/night park differences, e.g., conventional wisdom (and perhaps stats) is that DS is much easier to HR at in the daytime as opposed to at night.

by David Young on Jul 1, 2009 11:44 AM PDT up reply actions  

Doesn’t take weather/atmospheric conditions into account, but does take park factors into account. But it is being worked on.
vr, Xei

by Xeifrank on Jul 1, 2009 11:46 AM PDT up reply actions  

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2012 Dodgers Payroll

Italics denote estimates
Pos No Player 2012 Salary
C 17 Ellis $500,000 team control
1B 7 Loney $6,375,000
2B 14 Ellis $2,500,000
3B 5 Uribe $8,000,000
SS 9 Gordon $485,000 team control
LF 21 Rivera $4,000,000
CF 27 Kemp $10,000,000
RF 16 Ethier $10,950,000

IF/OF 6 Hairston $2,250,000
OF 10 Gwynn $850,000
2B/3B 3 Kennedy $800,000
C 18 Treanor $850,000
IF 12 Sellers $485,000 team control

SP 22 Kershaw $6,000,000
SP 58 Billingsley $9,000,000
SP 29 Lilly $12,000,000
SP 35 Capuano $3,000,000
SP 44
Harang $3,000,000

CL 54 Guerra $485,000 team control
RHP 74
Jansen $500,000 team control
RHP 55 Guerrier $4,750,000
RHP 60 Coffey $1,000,000
RHP 66 MacDougal $650,000
LHP 57 Elbert $485,000 team control
RHP 36
Hawksworth $500,000 team control

TJ 41 De La Rosa $485,000 team control



Manny $8,087,432 deferred


Andruw $3,375,000 deferred


Pierre $3,050,000 deferred
Furcal $3,000,000 deferred
Kuroda $2,000,000 deferred
Garland $1,500,000 option buyout
Blake $1,250,000 option buyout

Totals
$112,162,432

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Players on 40-man roster used as roster
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Current 40-man roster count: 40
(not including Belisario)

2012 Non-Roster Invitees

No Player Age*
63 Jose Ascanio rhp
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33 John Grabow lhp
33
59 Angel Guzman rhp
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47 Wil Ledezma lhp
31
72 Shane Lindsay rhp
27
62 Fernando Nieve rhp 29
73 Scott Rice lhp 30
70 Will Savage rhp
27
71 Ryan Tucker rhp
25
28 Jamey Wright rhp
37

30 Josh Bard c 34
82 Griff Erickson c 24
81 Matt Wallachc 26
67 Jeff Baisley 3b/1b 29
65 Luis Cruz ss/2b 28
37 Josh Fields 3b 29
64 Lance Zawadzki if 27
56 Cory Sullivan of 32

*Age on June 30, 2012

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