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Around SBN: NFL Week One: Previews and Predictions for all 15 games

Dodger First Half Review: Simply The Best

No matter what happens between now and the end of the season, the 2009 Dodgers will be one of the most memorable clubs in franchise history.  Even with all the ups and downs of the de facto first half, the Dodgers head into the All-Star break with the best record in baseball.

The Dodgers began play as the Brooklyn Atlantics in the 1884 American Association.  This is the 126th season of the franchise.  Through 88 games, the 2009 club is tied for the 11th-best record at 56-32, which also stands as the fourth-best 88-game start since moving to Los Angeles.  Here are the top records through 88 games in franchise history, along with the final winning percentage of each club:

Year W-L Pct Final %
1955      
61-27 .693 .641
1952 61-27 .693 .627
1942 61-27 .693 .675
1899 60-28 .682 .682
1974 60-28 .682 .630
1892 59-29 .670 .617
1899 58-30 .659 .679
1941 57-31 .648 .649
1977 57-31 .648 .605
1962 57-31 .648 .618
1953 56-32 .636 .682
1951 56-32 .636 .618
2009 56-32 .636 ???

The lowest winning percentage with this kind of start in Dodger history is .605, which equates to 98 wins for the season.

Phil, Brendan, and I voted on a couple of Dodger awards for the first half of the season.  The first award is the Mike Piazza Award, given to the club MVP, named after the rightful winner of the 1996 & 1997 National League MVP awards.  We each picked and ranked five candidates, with points awarded on a 5-4-3-2-1 basis.  The second is the Sandy Koufax Award, named for the greatest pitcher in franchise history (so far).  We each picked three for this award, and points were given on a 5-3-1 basis.

Star-divide

Mike Piazza AwardMatt Kemp has been the man for the Dodgers in the first half, perhaps one of the most productive lower-third-of-the-batting-order hitters ever (57 of his 85 starts have come in the 7th spot or lower).  The Bison has combined stellar hitting -- leading non-suspended Dodger regulars in Equivalent Average (.313), wOBA (.386), slugging percentage (.495) and OPS (.879) -- with amazing defense.  Kemp is second among major league centerfielders in Ultimate Zone Rating, a cool 10.2 runs above average.  Kemp has had a well-rounded first half, having scored from second base on a bunt, ending a game with a Willie Mays catch, and already tying the Los Angeles club record for grand slams in a season with three (Kal Daniels 1990, Mike Piazza 1998, and Adrian Beltre 2004). Here's how the voting broke out:

Player 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th Total
Kemp 2 1 -- -- -- 14
Billingsley   1 1 1 -- -- 12
Blake -- 1 1 1 -- 9
Broxton -- -- 1 1 1 6
Hudson -- -- -- 1 1 3
Pierre -- -- -- -- 1 1

Sandy Koufax Award:  This one was a slam dunk, as Chad Billingsley has taken the reins as staff ace and put together an All-Star first half.  He has struggled of late, having been stuck on nine wins for five straight starts.  However, Billingsley still leads the club in innings (125.1), wins (9), FIP (3.51), Pitching Runs Created (57), and strikeouts (119).  Jonathan Broxton, who was lights out before his recent toe injury, finished in second place.  However, if Clayton Kershaw keeps up his recent great pitching, this award will be up for grabs as the season comes to a close.  Here's the voting:

Pitcher 1st 2nd 3rd Total
Billingsley 3 -- -- 15
Broxton -- 3 -- 9
Kershaw -- -- 1 1
Wolf -- -- 1 1
Troncoso -- -- 1 1

First Half By The Numbers:
56-32 record (.636, best in MLB)
443 runs scored (5.03 per game, 7th in MLB)
338 runs allowed (3.84 per game, 2nd in MLB)
.632 pythagorean winning percentage, 1st in MLB
.337 wOBA (9th in MLB)
3.88 FIP (4th in MLB)
.718 Defensive Efficiency (1st in MLB)

Don't Get Swept Away:  The Dodgers have yet to have a losing streak of three games.  In fact, the club has played 29 different series so far, and has only lost six of them.  The club is 8-3-3 in 14 home series, and 10-3-2 in 15 road series.

Start Me Up:  The Dodgers are second in MLB with 70 first inning runs (Philadelphia and their 846 All-Stars have scored 73 first inning runs).

Pleading The Fifth:  This is the answer you might get from Joe Torre if asked why Matt Kemp bats so low in the order.  Dodger 5th-place hitters are 29th in baseball in OPS, hitting .235/.333/.323, with three home runs and 40 RBI.  However, the Dodger 8th-place hitters lead MLB in OPS, hitting .336/.394/.525, with 14 homers and 50 RBI.  Thanks to the amazing Baseball-Reference.com, we can see the breakdown of different parts of the Dodger batting order (pitchers not included):

Batting Order BA OBP SLG OPS
1-2 spots .285 .355 .400 .755
3-6 spots .269 .356 .401 .757
7-9 spots .305 .380 .494 .874

The Giants (.739 OPS from 3-6, .752 from 7-9) and Pirates (.733, .740) are the only other clubs in baseball with a more productive bottom of the lineup than middle.

Pitching In:  The Dodgers have used 19 pitchers this season, and 17 of them have at least one win.  The club record for pitchers with at least one win is 18, set last season.

Back End of the Rotation:  Coming into the season, the Dodgers top four starting pitchers were Chad Billingsley, Hiroki Kuroda, Randy Wolf, and Clayton Kershaw.  Those four have done fine, averaging 6.04 innings per start while putting up a 3.46 ERA.  The Dodgers are 40-25 in games started by these four pitchers.  Meanwhile, the other four pitchers to start -- Eric Stults, Eric Milton, Jeff Weaver, and James McDonald -- haven't been as effective, averaging only 4.58 innings per start while putting up a 4.78 ERA.  However, the club is an amazing 16-7 in starts made by this back end of the starting staff.

**********

I don't know how you can look at this team and see anything but an unqualified success.  When Manny Ramirez was suspended for 50 games, things looked bleak for the Dodgers, and they were expected to fall back to the pack somewhat.  However, the Dodgers actually widened their lead in the division, which solidified this club as a legitimate World Series contender.  With a seven-game lead over the Giants, the Dodgers have a nice cushion with which to play in the second half.  Baseball Prospectus currently has the Dodgers' playoff odds at 99.25%.

No matter the challenge, this team has responded.  When the offense sputtered (3.6 runs per game in June), the pitching picked up the slack.  When the pitching struggled, the offense had their back.  The Dodgers lost their best hitter for 50 games, they lost their opening day starter for two months, and their two expected main setup men coming into the season have been injured, ineffective, or both.  However, here they are with the very best record in baseball.  This is a very good team, with a tough lineup and pitching staff from top to bottom, and one that will be reckoned with, even as presently constructed, in October.

First Half Stats

Player AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SB/CS BA/OBP/SLG OPS wOBA EqA
Manny
121 30 43 11 0 9 29 31 0/0 .355/.487/.669 1.156 .476 .394
Kemp
325 48 104 12 6 11 50 34 19/4 .320/.384/.495 .874 .386 .313
Blake
288 47 82 18 2 12 55 36 2/1 .285/.364/.486 .850 .362 .300
Pierre
259 39 85 15 4 0 25 19 23/8 .328/.387/.417 .804 .361 .293
Hudson
343 53 97 24 2 7 48 38 6/0 .283/.353/.426 .779 .346 .282
Ethier
324 49 81 17 1 18 56 39 4/3 .250/.338/.475 .813 .344 .283
Loney
331 43 93 17 1 7 54 37 6/1 .281/.350/.402 .752 .330 .273
Martin
283 37 73 10 0 2 27 48 8/4 .258/.373/.314 .688 .317 .259
Furcal
317 46 81 16 1 4 21 36 5/4 .256/.331/.350 .682 .305 .245
Ausmus
56 7 16 2 0 1 5 4 1/0 .286/.355/.375 .730 .334 .268
Loretta 106 14 26 5 0 0 16 15 0/0 .245/.344/.292 .637 .295 .235
Castro 71 14 25 3 0 1 9 6 0/0 .352/.397/.437 .834 .365 .302
DeWitt
23 2 4 0 0 1 1 2 0/0 .174/.240/.304 .544 .245 .181
Hoffmann 22 2 4 2 0 1 7 0 0/0 .182/.167/.409 .576 .226 .201
Paul 14 3 3 1 0 1 1 2 0/1 .214/.313/.500 .813 .317 .255
Jones 13 1 4 1 0 0 0 0 0/0 .308/.400/.385 .785 .361 .289
Mientkiewicz 5 0 2 1 0 0 2 0 0/0 .400/.400/.600 1.000 .430 .342
Ellis 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0/0 .000/.000/.000 .000 .000 -.237
Pitchers 158 8 20 4 0 1 13 9 0/0 .127/.181/.171 .352 --- ---
Totals 3063 443 843 159 17 76 419 356 74/26 .275/.354/.413 .766 .337 .277

 

Pitcher G W-L Sv IP H R ER BB K ERA WHIP FIP x-FIP
Billingsley     19 9-4 -- 125.1 99 51 47 55 119 3.38 1.229 3.51 3.98
Wolf 19 4-3 -- 114.2 101 47 44 33 85 3.45 1.169 4.25 4.39
Kershaw 18 7-5 -- 99.2 68 35 35 59 99 3.16 1.274 3.52 4.28
Kuroda 10 3-5 -- 54.0 50 30 28 12 38 4.67 1.148 3.60 3.88
Stults 9 4-2 -- 45.0 46 24 24 25 30 4.80 1.578 4.12 5.64
Milton 5 2-1 -- 23.2 30 12 10 6 20 3.80 1.521 3.56 4.60
Broxton 38 6-0 20 40.2 21 14 14 17 65 3.10 0.934 1.59 1.93
Troncoso 41 3-0 5 56.2 51 15 11 21 34 1.75 1.271 3.30 3.93
Belisario 43 1-3 0 48.1 37 15 13 20 46 2.42 1.179 3.01 3.44
Weaver 15 5-3 -- 44.0 49 19 17 20 34 3.48 1.568 3.93 4.35
Mota 38 3-2 -- 41.0 31 16 16 16 23 3.51 1.195 3.85 4.51
Leach 33 2-0 -- 19.0 11 9 9 9 17 4.26 1.053 3.82 3.86
McDonald 17 2-1 -- 28.2 24 15 15 19 19 4.71 1.500 5.37 5.73
Wade 27 2-3 -- 27.2 28 17 17 10 18 5.53 1.373 4.12 4.89
Ohman 21 1-0 1 12.1 12 8 8 8 7 5.84 1.622 7.92 5.65
Elbert 4 1-0 -- 9.0 10 5 5 2 9 5.00 1.333 6.14 3.53
Kuo 7 1-0 -- 5.1 5 4 4 4 4 6.75 1.688 7.45 6.33
Schlichting 2 0-0 -- 2.2 1 2 1 5 2 3.38 2.250 12.14 9.38
Vargas 2 0-0 -- 2.0 1 0 0 1 0 0.00 1.000 4.64 6.05
Totals 88
56-32 26 799.2 677 338 318 3.85 7.53 3.58 1.274 3.88 ---

0 recs  |  Comment 25 comments |

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Pitching In: The Dodgers have used 19 pitchers this season, and 17 of them have at least one win. The club record for pitchers with at least one win is 18, set last season.

That record should easily fall when Schmidt picks up his first win, followed by Halladay:)

by meercatjohn on Jul 14, 2009 7:37 AM PDT reply actions  

Martin has a wOBA of .317 and that is his strong suit? 12 XBH in over 320 plate appearances

Yeah, that is something we couldn’t live without for now and the future. That wOBA is 22nd among catchers with 100 plate appearances. If that is worth 13 Million a season then I guess Manny is worth 100 Billion.

Am I piling on Martin? Maybe but that terrible three month stretch of his career came in the 1st halff where he typically builds his statistics. After compiling over 320 plate appearances in the first half he will need to break out of the mold and have a solid 2nd half, and who was the last full time Dodger catcher who actually performed better in the 2nd half then the 1st half?

by meercatjohn on Jul 14, 2009 7:49 AM PDT reply actions  

Kemp really put himself on the map

With Beltran hurt not even considering his amazing defense this year he’s the top offensive CF in the NL when using wOBA or when using OPS. I’d break out the EQA if BP didn’t have it behind a pay wall. Just to tick off Paul Scott let’s take a look at OPS+ because we know the mild fluctuations in park effects from year to year will really have an impact on the final year OPS+ numbers.

If you don’t think Matt Kemp gets much publicity how about Scott Hairston? Depending on the metric he’s either right behind Matt or a head of him.

by meercatjohn on Jul 14, 2009 7:59 AM PDT reply actions  

Since I don't think getting a front line pitcher

like Halladay, Lee, or Bedard is probable, the only thing I’d really like to see Ned acquire is a RH hitting right fielder who can knock the snot out of LHP like Matt Stairs knocks the snot out RHP. Jeff Willingham for example.

With Manny back it is not that big an issue but I’m not a fan of wasting Andre’s career 715 OPS in right field against LHP. He’s had enough at bats to prove to me that he can hit LHP but not at a decent enough clip to earn full time play against them.

by meercatjohn on Jul 14, 2009 8:04 AM PDT reply actions  

I don’t think they are looking for anyone to share time with Ethier, even though as you point out it might be a good idea.

What about picking up the recently released Tony Clark as a bench player? Everyone always talks about what a good clubhouse guy he is. Then again, over the last four years he’s only hitting .224/.331/.384 against LHP, so maybe not.

Maybe we can do some sort of home/road platoon at 1B…

Loney
Home: .242/.300/.307, 0 HR
Road: .315/.393/.483, 7 HR

Ethier as a similar split the other way, although both appear partially BABIP-driven

Ethier
Home: .291/.353/.629, 14 HR
Road: .214/.325/.341, 4 HR

by Eric Stephen on Jul 14, 2009 8:23 AM PDT up reply actions  

I forgot to add a smiley face…I’m not advocating a home/road platoon.

by Eric Stephen on Jul 14, 2009 8:31 AM PDT up reply actions  

That Ethier split

reminds me of the Nomar split of a few years ago.

by meercatjohn on Jul 14, 2009 9:01 AM PDT up reply actions  

2007!

I forgot about how extreme that was:

Homar: .325/.385/.450
Road: .243/.272/.297

As expected with a split this fluky, Nomar’s BABIP at home was .343, and .257 on the road.

I still remember how awesome it was going into the 2006 All-Star Game, the Dodgers had a guy hitting .358/.426/.578!!! Then Phil Garner didn’t play him. Boooo!!!!

BTW< I don’t like Kiko Calero because if I type “Nomar” into the search box on BB-Ref, I have one extra step to get to Nomar’s page because Calero’s middle name is Nomar.

by Eric Stephen on Jul 14, 2009 9:09 AM PDT up reply actions  

Yup

I’ve heard no rumbling about getting a RH bat for the outfield, just pointing out it is one area that could be improved very cheaply.

by meercatjohn on Jul 14, 2009 8:58 AM PDT up reply actions  

Upgrading First Base

I’ll go ahead and throw this one out there. Why not make a run at Dunn? Dunn is only under a 2 year contract and Washington has no hope of competing next year either. They should look to dump Dunn and build the farm system.

I know this doesn’t help with the Ethier against lefties problem, but I wouldn’t mind acquiring a slugging first baseman who can be replaced late in games for Loney as a defensive subsitution.

by Michael White on Jul 14, 2009 8:46 AM PDT up reply actions  

“Should” and “will” are two different things. I seriously doubt that (a) Washington is looking to trade a player it just signed, or (b) Ned is even remotely interested in giving away prospects for a player he could have freely signed for “only” money this last offseason.

by Eric Stephen on Jul 14, 2009 8:49 AM PDT up reply actions  

Fun with stats

I know Dunn has mostly played OF this year, but I thought this was interesting, from Fangraphs:

2009 WAR:
Loney — 0.7
Dunn — 0.7

However, almost all of Dunn’s lost value is thanks to playing RF horribly, worse than he has botched any other position. Dunn in his career has been truly awful on defense, pretty much no matter where he has been (especially RF):

1B: -13.9 per 150g
LF: -11.9
RF: -44.1(!!!!)

Per UZR, Loney is -3.4 runs per 150g.

However, this exercise is fruitless. If I had to put an over/under on games started by Loney after the ASB (74 games left), I’d set it at 70.5, and take the over.

by Eric Stephen on Jul 14, 2009 8:59 AM PDT up reply actions  

Batting 8th

Here are the games started in the 8 hole…the ones hitting .336/.394/.525 (leading the club in OPS):

Blake – 30
Castro – 17
Kemp – 15
Martin – 10
Ausmus – 8
Loney – 1
Pierre – 1
Ellis – 1
Hoffmann – 1
Bills – 1
Wolf – 1
Kershaw – 1
Stults – 1

The four pitchers are 1 for 7 with a sacrifice fly (games that Pierre batted 9th).

by Eric Stephen on Jul 14, 2009 8:40 AM PDT reply actions  

All in All an amazing 1st half

considering I can find numerous area’s of possible improvement.

by meercatjohn on Jul 14, 2009 9:07 AM PDT reply actions  

The value of going 30-12 against the NL West!

by Eric Stephen on Jul 14, 2009 9:11 AM PDT up reply actions  

Torre's contribution cannot be overlooked

While a lot of us question a lot of his decisions when it comes to using the pen, we can’t overlook that the Dodgers probably have the best manager to keep them focused.

When Manny went down for 50 games, he made damn sure that the club moral wouldn’t go down as well. He constantly believes in his guys and that makes guys want to win for him. It’s no coincidence that the year he leaves the Yankees and comes to us, the Dodgers go further in the playoffs in 20 years and the Yankees get shutout of the playoffs for the first time in over a decade.

by UCLAClass82 on Jul 14, 2009 9:13 AM PDT reply actions  

Really?

I thought it was because the Yankee team got old and Joe moved to a young Dodger team that added the 2nd best hitter in the NL. I’m not knocking Joe Torre but I’m also not going to give him all the credit for the Dodgers winning a playoff spot when it was the maturation of a number of young players combined with one hell of a hitter in Aug/Sept.

by meercatjohn on Jul 14, 2009 9:22 AM PDT up reply actions  

Right

Torre w/Dodgers pre-Manny: 54-54

by Eric Stephen on Jul 14, 2009 9:26 AM PDT up reply actions  

I'm happy with Torre this year

He seems to know the team now and he does seem to be a relatively stabilizing influence (even if that means frustrating batting orders.) I was not at all pleased last year. It seemed like he didn’t know the team at all (struggling with getting Etheir and Kemp on the field) and he seemed to be just sort of mailing it in. Last year, Torre stuck with Sweeney, Jones and Pierre way too long until injuries (Jones) and a trade (Ramirez) took the decision more or less out of his hands. This year, I like that Torre is staying strong with keeping Ethier as the starter even though his BA probably doesn’t look good to his bosses. Torre is a big Kemp fan, and I think he realizes moving kemp out of CF weakens the team. Torre’s bullpen usage has always been odd, but I don’t really mind. He seems to have a good beat for who can help the team. Torre learned quickly that Tron was the next best option after Broxton and after Kuo went down.

All in all, can’t complain about Torre this year one bit.

by Michael White on Jul 14, 2009 9:39 AM PDT up reply actions  

I don't think that is necessary correct

There was no way Andruw Jones wasn’t going to be given every opportunity to perform last year and really until Furcal got hurt, the Dodgers had a nice rotation working out with the 4 outfielders. Now, you can argue about whether or not the Dodgers should have stuck with Pierre in the leadoff spot (where he stayed until he got hurt) for so long but a few weeks later Jones went out for surgery so it really didn’t matter.

By the time Jones came back, he had lost whatever “veteran does not lose his job due to injury” cred a player like he would normally get.

by bhsportsguy on Jul 14, 2009 10:34 AM PDT up reply actions  

2008 OF starts, pre-Manny

through July 31 (108 games):

Kemp – 94 starts
Ethier – 88 starts
Pierre – 72 starts (plus 1 at DH)
Andruw – 52 starts (plus 1 at DH)
Pee Wee – 18 starts (plus 1 at DH)

by Eric Stephen on Jul 14, 2009 10:47 AM PDT up reply actions  

Should the Dodgers make a run at Saito?

just a thought. He’s cheap and Boston seems like they’re willing to give him up

I'm nobody's fool, least of all yours

by BoulderDodger on Jul 14, 2009 11:35 AM PDT reply actions  

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NL West Standings

W L PCT GB STRK
San Diego 79 59 .572 0 Won 3
San Francisco 78 62 .557 2 Lost 1
Colorado 75 64 .539 4.5 Won 6
Los Angeles 69 71 .492 11 Lost 5
Arizona 57 83 .407 23 Won 1

(updated 9.8.2010 at 10:10 PM PDT)

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2010 Dodger Payroll

Pos No Player 2010 Salary
C 28 Barajas $117,486
1B 7 Loney $3,100,000
2B  13 Theriot $909,290
3B 23 Blake $6,000,000
SS 15 Furcal $8,500,000
LF  21 Podsednik $640,710
CF 27 Kemp $4,000,000
RF 16 Ethier $6,000,000

SS/2B/3B 14 Carroll $1,475,000
OF 5 Johnson $850,000
OF/1B 31 Gibbons $155,738
C 12 Ausmus $850,000
C 17 Ellis $332,241
IF 60 Hu $74,350
PH/1B 35 Lindsey $61,202
1B/3B 9 Mitchell $61,202
OF 49 Oeltjen $59,016

SP 22 Kershaw $440,000
SP 58 Billingsley $3,850,000
SP 18 Kuroda $14,100,000
SP  29 Lilly $1,696,721
SP 44 Padilla $4,025,000

CL 56 Kuo $950,000
RHP 51 Broxton $4,000,000
RHP  26 Dotel $636,612
RHP 74
Jansen $159,563
RHP 54 Belisario $297,541
RHP 38 Troncoso $297,792
RHP 36 Weaver $800,000
LHP 52 Sherrill $4,500,000
RHP 37 Monasterios $460,000
RHP  48 Ely $222,951
RHP 50 Link $109,649

DL 59 Schlichting $185,792
60DL 55 Martin $5,050,000

Manny $7,267,760


Pierre $4,000,000


Andruw $3,600,000


Schmidt $2,000,000


Wolf $2,000,000


Hudson $1,440,000


Nomar $1,250,000
Belliard $825,000
Anderson $409,699
Ra.Ortiz $349,727
AAA 45 Miller $292,623
DeWitt $266,612


Ohman $200,000
AAA 49 Haeger $195,393
AAA 47 Wade $194,514
AAA 30 Paul $131,147


Repko $122,951
Green $96,175
Ru.Ortiz $63,934
 
Taschner $39,344


Zerpa $35,000
Castro $32,787
McDonald $28,771
AAA 57 Elbert $6,557
AAA
Hoffmann ($25,000)


Stults ($400,000)

Totals
$99,389,730
 
For more detailed information, click here.

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