Mid-Season Dodgers Top 30 Prospects List by CanuckDodger

But Russell’s AB’s to SO’s ratio is still 3 to 1 when he is facing right handed pitching. That would be bad enough at any age against any level of competition, but Russell is in his age 23 season and is playing in low A, a man among boys. The low A bullpen guys I put on my list are all pitchers I don’t envision having a problem surviving Double A once they reach that level. Russell doesn’t make my list because I honestly see Russell getting eaten alive by Double A pitchers, and he is not going to be young when he gets there. He’ll have to prove me wrong about that before I even think of changing my mind on Russell. Russell hitting more home runs in the Midwest League certainly isn’t going to change it. And believe it or not, I checked Branyan’s minor league record to see if he, as a minor leaguer, was as easy to K as Russell is. The answer is no, and he played at various levels when he was younger than Russell.

Castillo was a bit older than a starting pitcher should be in Double A last year, but I decided last year to give him the benefit of the doubt. Castillo is now a year older and is still at Double A, and not performing as well as he did before. So off the list he goes.

BoulderDodger: No formula, or anything scientific. I do what Baseball America claims they do when making up their lists for individual organizations. I try to balance potential with polish, but usually give more favor to potential. The list you see isn’t my first, or even second, draft. I thought about each player, and other players who didn’t make the cut. I made an initial list and then started to move players up or down relative to each other, trying to get each player to “fit” just right. The list you see is by no means written in stone. It is a snapshot in time, representing my thinking right now. And I really hate the fact that I lack scouting information on a few guys, like Sartor, Garcia, Pimentel, and Webster. I am relying on their impressive stats to a degree that makes me nervous.

Billingsley had an advantage in that he had two breaking balls, his curve and his slider (which had yet to morph into a cutter), at age 20, while Withrow just throws the curve. I think Billingsley used to throw harder than he does now, and was more of a mid-90’s guy then. Withrow reaches the mid-90’s now but I don’t know how well he sustains it. Withrow’s taller, thinner frame suggests to me that he may yet throw harder in the future, while the more squat Billingsley lost some of his heat as he aged. I am also keeping in mind what Charlie Hough said about Withrow: that he has the best arm he has seen in 10 years, so that means he is counting both Billingsley and Kershaw. I think Withrow has a ceiling as an ace. I am just not sure how fast he will reach it. I don’t think he has the same feel for pitching at his age that Billingsley did. Withrow could be like Edwin Jackson and have some tough times before figuring everything out at 25.

I haven’t heard anything about Gallagher; I have just seen that he hasn’t produced this year despite going down to a lower level. I feared last year that his offensive numbers were a California League illusion. That’s why I am tempering expectations for the position players who are with Inland Empire now that made my list. I am very skeptical of Van Slyke, Baez, and Caseres. Robinson too, but Robinson is the best of the lot to me because he is a middle fielder rather than a corner guy . It doesn’t hurt that he steals some bases and switch hits either.

130 AB’s for position players, and 50 innings for pitchers. If a guy has reached either of those totals in the majors, he is not eligible for my list. I don’t care about the MLB service time issue.

It depends on how many of our current Top 10 Colletti trades away in the next couple of weeks.:)

I think the Dodgers success in converting Martin to a catcher from a 3B made the Dodgers think they didn’t have to bother actually drafting any catchers in early rounds. — they could just convert other guys. Now we are showing the result of neglecting stocking up at that position.

Kensai, you didn’t see that Baseball America had him in our Top 10?

See my comment on Russell near the top, and I think Kensai pegs Baez accurately below.