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NL West Roundtable, Part II: Second Half Outlook

Here is the second part of our NL West Roundtable, as skillfully moderated by Sky Kalkman of Beyond The Boxscore. Once again, the participants are:

Here is part one of our roundtable, regarding the trade deadline...

Star-divide

Sky Kalkman (Moderator): What surprising story lines from the first half of the season have shaped the standings the most?

Eric Stephen (True Blue LA): The Dodgers playing so well without Manny Ramirez for 50 games was shocking enough. Juan Pierre played out of his mind for three weeks, but has since come back down to Earth. Casey Blake having his best season at age 35 has also been quite a surprise. The Dodger starting pitching was a question mark entering the season, but has been at or near the top of the league nearly all season, and have contributed greatly to them having the league's best record.

Grant Brisbee (McCovey Chronicles: Pablo Sandoval isn't a work in progress -- he's a fully formed hitting machine. McCovey Chronicles readers started calling him "Fat Ichiro", but another reader suggested "Skinny Gwynn." Either works. A 22-year-old with bat control and hand/eye coordination this good is a rare thing. Matt Cain isn't really pitching better than he has in the past, but he's getting the run support he deserves.

Jim McLennan (AZ SnakePit). Grant, I'll see your 22-year old and raise you an even better 21-year old in Justin Upton. Otherwise, however, the hitting struggles of the Diamondbacks doomed the team early on. The struggles of Chris Young, Stephen Drew and the loss of Conor Jackson, probably for the season, to a fungal lung infection (!), all expected to be major contributors, derailed an offense expected to be among the most productive in the division. And, of course, losing perennial Cy Young contender Brandon Webb didn't help - especially when his replacements have two wins in 15 starts and an ERA of 7.94.

Dex Bustarde (Gaslamp Ball): The biggest surprise for Padres fans may be the fact that everything that we figured would go wrong actually went wrong. You'd think something could go right, but even Adrian Gonzalez's MVP type season and the fact that Tony Gwynn Jr. has worked as an everyday player haven't stopped the slide. I think the biggest surprise overall is that the Dodgers have actually managed to turn talent into function as opposed to dysfunction.

Sky Kalkman (Moderator): For the teams probably out of the running, what acquisitions and decisions based on the 2010 and future seasons would you consider a "win"?

Dex Bustarde (Gaslamp Ball): If our minor league talent moves along at a decent pace, it's a win. If the new ownership group decides to start spending money on the team, it's a win.

Jim McLennan (AZ SnakePit): If we could convince someone to taken on board Eric Byrnes' salary for 2010, dancing in the streets would be scheduled. I do like the acquisition of Brandon Allen from the Sox for Tony Peña - basically, any time you convert a middle reliever into a position prospect, you shoud probably do it. He may not quite be ready for 2010, but we have Josh Whitesell to tide us over until then.

Sky Kalkman (Moderator): What story lines will we see in the second half of the season that most people aren't expecting?

Russ Oates (Purple Row): The Rockies continue to receive outstanding pitching. I mean, when has anyone ever associated good pitching with the Rockies?

Eric Stephen (True Blue LA): Despite 487 different media members making the "Joe Torre destroys bullpen arms" point without actually researching the topic, the Dodgers' bullpen will continue to excel. That, and I think the Rockies will overtake the Giants in the Wild Card race.

Grant Brisbee (McCovey Chronicles): I think Joe Torre will destroy the Dodger bullpen arms. That, and I think that Eric Stephen will get a bunch of nasty crank calls in the coming months. Seriously, though, I think that either Nate Schierholtz or John Bowker has a huge second half, which will partially make up for the luck (the Giants have scored more runs than expected) going away.

Jim McLennan (AZ SnakePit): You mean apart from Joe Torre destroying the Dodger bullpen arms? [two down, 485 to go...] I'm afraid I just can't see the Giants or Rockies holding up in the wild-card race. Still thinking that'll come out of the Central. Mind you, I'm also expecting Kershaw and Wolf to implode in the Dodgers' rotation. You heard it here first...

Eric Stephen (True Blue LA):  Well played, gentlemen.

Sky Kalkman (Moderator): How about ending with one bold prediction we won't hold you accountable for if you're wrong, but we'll worship at your feet for if it comes true?

Russ Oates (Purple Row): The NL West champion comes down the last three games of the season, which happens to pit the Rockies against the Dodgers in LA. The Rockies need to sweep the series to win the West, and they do. First NL West crown!

Dex Bustarde (Gaslamp Ball): Padres pull off a 12 game win streak before the end of the season just to taunt fans.

Eric Stephen (True Blue LA): Manny Ramirez will give birth to a 7 lb, 9 oz. baby boy sometime in September, but will still end up leading the club in home runs on the season.

Grant Brisbee (McCovey Chronicles): Giants fans will complain, loudly, no matter what happens. Also, every member of the rotation pitches a no-hitter, though Zito's doesn't count because he walks 14 and is pulled by the fourth.

Jim McLennan (AZ SnakePit): Manny Ramirez is benched for three days each month, spending the time in the clubhouse, weeping uncontrollably and eating Ben and Jerry's while watching 'Beaches'. The Diamondbacks sweep the Cubs at Wrigley in the last series of the season, knocking them out of the wild-card spot. Ted Lilly's glove is never the same again.

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And the day you post this, Colorado passes San Francisco in the standings.

by Michael White on Jul 21, 2009 7:47 AM PDT reply actions  

rofl

beaches. what a movie.

by whorge on Jul 21, 2009 10:50 AM PDT reply actions  

Pretty nice homage to his Dad by Bill Simmons today. I had no idea he was related to Albert Einstein.

by Eric Stephen on Jul 21, 2009 10:56 AM PDT reply actions  

Enjoyed the exchange:)

by Pedro's curse on Jul 21, 2009 1:00 PM PDT reply actions  

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NL West Standings

W L PCT GB STRK
San Diego 60 42 .588 0 Lost 2
San Francisco 60 45 .571 1.5 Won 2
Los Angeles 54 50 .519 7 Lost 4
Colorado 54 50 .519 7 Won 3
Arizona 38 66 .365 23 Lost 1

(updated 7.31.2010 at 9:51 PM PDT)

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2010 Dodger Payroll

Pos No Player 2010 Salary
C 55 Martin $5,050,000
1B 7 Loney $3,100,000
2B   Theriot $909,290
3B 23 Blake $6,000,000
SS 15 Furcal $8,500,000
LF  21 Podsednik $640,710
CF 27 Kemp $4,000,000
RF 16 Ethier $6,000,000

SS/2B/3B 14 Carroll $1,350,000
2B/3B/1B 3 Belliard $825,000
OF 30 Paul $264,481
PH/OF 9 Anderson $550,000
C 12 Ausmus $850,000

SP 22 Kershaw $440,000
SP 18 Kuroda $14,100,000
SP 58 Billingsley $3,850,000
SP 44 Padilla $4,025,000
SP   Lilly $1,696,721

CL 51 Broxton $4,000,000
LHP 56 Kuo $950,000
RHP   Dotel $636,612
RHP 36 Weaver $800,000
RHP 74
Jansen $159,563
RHP 37 Monasterios $460,000
LHP 52 Sherrill $4,500,000

DL 5 Johnson $800,000
DL 99 Manny $7,267,760
RL 54 Belisario $173,566



Pierre $4,000,000


Andruw $3,600,000


Schmidt $2,000,000


Wolf $2,000,000


Hudson $1,440,000


Nomar $1,250,000
Ra.Ortiz $349,727
AAA 45 Miller $292,623
DeWitt $264,372
AAA 17 Ellis $222,951
AAA 38 Troncoso $204,590


Ohman $200,000
AAA 49 Haeger $195,393
AAA 47 Wade $194,514
AAA  48 Ely $161,749


Repko $122,951
21 Green $96,175
AAA 59 Schlichting $87,431
Ru.Ortiz $63,934
AAA 50 Link $48,087
DFA 35
Taschner $39,344


Zerpa $35,000
McDonald $28,771
AAA 60 Hu $13,148
AAA 57 Elbert $6,557
AAA
Hoffmann ($25,000)


Stults ($400,000)

Totals
$98,391,060
 
For more detailed information, click here.

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