The Buzzsaw That Is Clayton Kershaw
In case you haven't been watching the Dodgers for the past year and a half, Clayton Kershaw has ridiculous stuff. His fastball is one of the hardest in the major leagues and his curveball moves about as much as any you'll ever see. His stuff is so good that even when one of his pitches isn't working he is still nearly unhittable. How good is his stuff though? One way to measure it is using a stat called wFB/C.
The wFB stat weighs how many runs a pitcher allows compared to an average pitcher when they throw a fastball. There are similiar stats for each pitch, wCB for weighted curveballs, wCH for weighted change-ups, and so on. But wFB/C weighs the amount of runs a pitcher allows per 100 fastballs compared to the average pitcher, so it's a rate stat instead of a cumulative stat. So if a pitchers fastball is 0 wFB/C, that means it's perfectly average. If it is a 1, that means the pitcher allows 1 less run per 100 fastballs then an average pitcher would. If it is a -1, that means a pitcher allows 1 more run per 100 fastballs then the average pitcher would. Here's a chart ranking qualifying pitchers based on their wFB/C:
| Pitcher | wFB/C |
| Chris Carpenter | 2.55 |
| Dan Haren | 2.52 |
| Tim Wakefield | 1.57 |
| Jarrod Washburn | 1.53 |
| Clayton Kershaw | 1.50 |
Using this chart we can see that Kershaw's fastball is fifth best in the major leagues in terms of its effectiveness. For every 100 fastballs Kershaw throws he allows 1.5 runs less than the average pitcher does, which is really good. Keep in mind that this only measures the effectiveness of fastballs, not how hard they are thrown. That helps explain the first two players, Chris Carpenter and Dan Haren, who both throw had but also have great command of their fastballs, which is what makes them so effective. They also have great secondary pitches which help set up their fastballs (Carpenter has a great curveball while Haren relies on his split-finger).
Tim Wakefield may be a surprise, but when you remember that he only throws his fastball 9% of the time it's not surprising that he would be effective with it. Jarrod Washburn doesn't have a blazing fastball either but he has great control, good offspeed pitches, and a great outfield defense that has helped him thrive in spite of his flyball tendencies.
But right after them comes Clayton Kershaw. To me it is really remarkable that his fastball would be this effective with the control he has. So often during his starts he has trouble getting his curveball over and has to rely almost solely on his fastball, yet it is still so good that hitters cannot square it up. For comparison here are the five least effective fastballs:
| Pitcher | wFB/C |
| Armando Gallaraga | -2.29 |
| Ricky Nolasco | -2.14 |
| Francisco Liriano | -1.91 |
| Josh Geer | -1.77 |
| Bronson Arroyo | -1.57 |
All five of these players have ERA's above 5.00. They have all had huge control problems for at least a part of 2009 and none of them throw particularly hard (Liriano hasn't thrown hard since his arm injury in 2007). Part of this is bad luck, obviously Ricky Nolasco does not have the second worst fastball in the major leagues, but their poor usage of their fastball explains much of these pitchers struggles in 2009.
What about curveballs? Where does Clayton's curveball rank above the game's elite? Unsurprisingly it's pretty high, 13th in the National League in fact:
| Pitcher | wCB/C |
| Javier Vasquez | 3.68 |
| Adam Wainwright | 3.55 |
| Livan Hernandez | 3.40 |
| Aaron Harang | 3.20 |
| Kevin Correia | 2.85 |
| Barry Zito | 2.50 |
| Joel Piniero | 2.08 |
| Todd Wellemeyer | 2.00 |
| Chris Carpenter | 1.96 |
| Mike Pelfrey | 1.93 |
| Randy Wolf | 1.87 |
| Wandy Rodriguez | 1.82 |
| Clayton Kershaw | 1.79 |
Most of the names on this list aren't too surprising. Guys like Javier Vasquez, Aaron Harang, Barry Zito, and Chris Carpenter are knon for their devastating curveballs. The American League list is similiar with guys like Roy Halladay, Josh Beckett, and A.J. Burnett among the leaders. Pitchers like Randy Wolf and Wandy Rodriguez also have nice hammers that they use as their out pitch. It's a bit surprising that Kevin Correia is ranked so high but he has been surprisingly not terrible this season. There's got to be something in the water in St. Louis as four of their starters are on this list.
And then we have Kershaw, who is again among the leaders. What keeps him from being higher on this list is not the movement on his curveball, but his control of the pitch. You can bet that as soon as he learns how to control his curve it's going to be as good as anybody's. His changeup is still not a very good pitch so his curveball is still what he relies on to offset hitters timing. His changeup is -1.91 runs per 100 pitches, pretty bad actually. He ranks 69th or 90 qualifying pitchers in that category. So unless he can drastically improve there his fastball and curveball will remain the only pitches he can throw very often.
What all this means is hard to say. His fastball is already as good as nearly anyone's in the world all things considered. His curveball is extremely effective as well, although there is still room for improvement. His changeup still has a long ways to go but even without it he still has an ERA under 3.00. What I do know is that if he ever learns how to harness his command of his offspeed pitches he is going to be something to behold, and it's certainly going to be fun watching him try.
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Comments
Nice column
I expect Nolasco’s fastball has improved quite a bit since he came back from his demotion as his work since is in line with what he did last year when he was one of the big surprises of the year.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Jul 24, 2009 8:11 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
It certainly has
He’s been a lot better since the demotion, before his numbers were ridiculously bad.
by Brendan Scolari on Jul 24, 2009 10:19 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I am a big fan of the term “buzzsaw”
by Eric Stephen on Jul 24, 2009 8:18 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
Question on the Metric
If I understand this correctly, you basically chart the pitches, and if the pitch (whatever it is) results in runs, then you adjust the result accordingly. However, say a pitcher throws 12 straight fastballs which are balls, resulting in walking the bases loaded. Then, the pitcher throws 3 curveballs, 2 for strikes and the last one results in a 3 run double. According to this metric, the curveball would be considered a pretty awful pitch, but really the fastball was the problem, right. I’m guess I’m just questionin the logic of using runs (as opposed to hits, walks or home runs) to determine the effectiveness pitches.
As such, this would benefit pitchers like Kershaw who allow fewer runs. But runs allowed is affected by the defense behind you and the relative speed/brains of the opponent (for example playing Dusty Baker’s Reds would help alot.) I wonder if a metric incorporating the TTO’s would be more appropriate.
Just curious, thanks…
by mwhite06 on Jul 24, 2009 8:22 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Good point. I’m curious to know that as well. I wasn’t able to find anything but a quick glossary on Fangraphs, which wasn’t illuminating on this isue.
by Eric Stephen on Jul 24, 2009 8:30 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
it's actually fairly complex
let’s say you have a runner on first with none out. You can assign a probability of the runner scoring. These probabilities have been computed for every possible situation. Now the pitcher throws a fastball, and the hitter pops out. One out, runner still at first. Now the probability of the runner scoring is much less. So you record that change in probability, and attribute it to the fastball. So you do that for every single pitch every game, and sum them up for each type of pitch. Obviously you change the sign of the sum, so that good fastball gets a positive score.
by seesdifferent on Jul 24, 2009 3:38 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The way I understand it
Each pitch is assigned a run value. Like a ball is worth a small amount of negative runs, a groundout is worth positive runs (for the pitcher), a home run is worth a large amount of negative runs, and so on. It’s not judged solely on when the runs actually score.
by Brendan Scolari on Jul 24, 2009 10:21 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Cue matthewmafa
Chad Billingsley’s changeup has been pounded. Fangraphs has 90 pitchers that qualify for the list. There are three that don’t throw a changeup (Dan Haren — having one of the best seasons ever — Tim Wakefield and Brad Penny), leaving 87 pitchers.
Billingley is 86th (second to last) in wCH/C at -15.76 runs per 100 changeups. Ouch.
Braden Looper has the best wCH/C at 6.25
by Eric Stephen on Jul 24, 2009 8:24 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Ryan Dempster is 87th, BTW, checking in at an amazing 126.69 runs below average per 100 changeups. I’m guessing he has thrown very few (Fangraphs has him throwing 0.1% of his pitches as changeups)
by Eric Stephen on Jul 24, 2009 8:28 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah
Anything that bad is likely to be small sample size.
by Brendan Scolari on Jul 24, 2009 10:20 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Probably one of these “let’s see if I can get this changeup over for a strike” moments, only to be rewarded with a 3-run shot or something :)
by Eric Stephen on Jul 24, 2009 10:21 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
james loney
hit ryans dempsters change up for a grand slam in last years playoffs
by matthewmafa on Jul 24, 2009 11:28 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Dan haren has 4 plus plus pitches
plus his split finger acts as a change up.. maybe chad should get a split finger
by matthewmafa on Jul 24, 2009 11:29 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
His curve and slider have been really good this year
He just hasn’t been so great with hi fastball. Well, his change too but he rarely throws that.
by Brendan Scolari on Jul 24, 2009 11:58 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
he actually has one of the best fastballs in baseball
It ranks second in baseball behind only chris carpenter in wFB/C
his splitter is also plus plus. and his curve is just a little bit about average. he also has developed a plus plus Cutter.
Dan haren doesnt even throw a slider or Changeup
by matthewmafa on Jul 24, 2009 12:29 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I know he responded to your Haren post, but I thought Brendan meant Dempster above.
by Eric Stephen on Jul 24, 2009 12:42 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I meant Chad
But thanks for the backup. ;-)
by Brendan Scolari on Jul 24, 2009 1:10 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
No I was referring to Chad
And how you said he should add a split finger.
by Brendan Scolari on Jul 24, 2009 1:10 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Kershaw as a pudgy high schooler
on the Highland Park freshman football team with Matthew Stafford.
by seesdifferent on Jul 24, 2009 3:42 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

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