http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/7/26/963183/playing-the-odds-previewing-the

I had not thought about this much until i read the article, but upon reflection, it is almost certainly right.

The Dodgers should be sellers – to the tune of a couple wins – because we just don’t need them. Improving the team at all at this point – is very likely to be counter-productive, since almost nothing you can do will result in substantially better odds of success in the post season and the Dodgers could get quite a bit worse than they are now and still be practically guaranteed to make the post-season.

1. Wolf might end up being an important part of our playoffs, but is that really likely? Isn’t it more likely that he is just another lefty in the pen? As things stand now, Billz, Kershaw and Kuroda are our top three. How many games are we really going to need a 4th starter for – assuming we go to the WS? Two – at most. Possibly none. It seems to me Wolf is only important as depth – an insurance against one of our top three going down to injury.

2. Weaver and Mota, both, I think could be good chips to trade. Could we get a ton for them? No, of course not. But they are both having outstanding seasons and are extremely unlikely to feature in the Dodgers’ future. Why assume Weaver’s current value is so low that he could not fetch a decent prospect?

To me, though, the more important aspect – one with which I have intuitively agreed but have not expressed as compellingly as this article – is the huge mistake it would be to spend substantial assets to upgrade. The idea that Billz or Kershaw could be included in a trade for Halladay, for example, would be a huge mistake. Other things could come to mind, but basically Torre and Colletti are having daily meetings to discuss what “pitching” to add. Chances are very good that any move in that direction would be a huge error.