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Clayton Kershaw is not for sale at any price

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via minos-the-minotaur-comic.dumbbum.net

The Minotaur is in the house today, can the best young Los Angeles Dodger LHP since Fernandomania break the Dodgers first three game losing streak of 2009? Only if the Dodgers oblige with a few runs of their own as he can't win the game on his own. If Clayton does what he normally does he will give us 5-6 innings of brilliant pitching. In his last eight starts he's shut out the opponent five times, given up one run once, and two runs twice, dropping his ERA from 4.13 to 2.96. Only twice has he not gone at least six innings. With this kind of performance and the subsequent struggles of Chad he may have moved into the number one spot in the rotation, a spot he may never relinquish.

Some scribes in Los Angeles may not have noticed but Clayton Kershaw is having a historic season given his age and southpawness. For more on this, turn the page.

Star-divide

 

Earlier this year Clayton Kershaw threw a special game but I didn't realize how special it was until reading a column by Joe Posnanski yesterday in which he mentioned this Bill James rule.

Bill James once wrote about how, if a big league pitchers strikes out 15 or more in a game while not walking anyone, you can conclude that he probably will be an outstanding big league pitcher. It’s one of those persuasive achievements. Look: Twenty-one pitchers have pulled it off since 1954 …

Dominant, Hall-of-Fame-type pitchers (9): Randy Johnson, Roger Clemens, Pedro Martinez, Luis Tiant*, John Smoltz, Curt Schilling*, Johan Santana, Nolan Ryan, Mike Mussina*.

*These pitchers may or may not get into the Hall of Fame … but they have a case. Clemens is a whole other thing.

Pitchers seemingly on their way to dominant careers who were derailed by injury or some other issue (8): Dwight Gooden, Kerry Wood, Frank Tanana (who still had an excellent career), Mark Prior, Gary Nolan, Sam McDowell, Vida Blue, Erik Bedard.

Darned good pitchers (3): Mark Langston, Mario Soto, Sid Fernandez.

Anomaly: Sterling Hitchcock.

The day after Joe wrote the above quote Luke Hochevar struck out 13 and walked none, so Joe wondered how many pitchers had done that and what that might mean for the future of Luke Hochevar, which got me to wondering where Clayton Kershaw's April 15th masterpiece placed him. In that game Clayton struck out 13 and walked one which changed the dynamics of Hochevar's game, since Luke didn't walk anyone.

Part of the reason I was interested was the irritating comment from Tom Hoffarth in Monday's Daily News in which he advocated trading Kershaw for Halladay.

Someday, sure, he might throw a complete-game shutout, strike out 15 and walk just eight. But for now, he's unremarkably become the No. 2 bullet in an L.A. five-shooter that lacks anything to put fear into a playoff opponent. And don't even get us started on the bullpen.

Whatever description you want to place on Clayton's season so far unremarkable is the last adjective I'd use. Evidently Tom, was unaware that Clayton at the tender age of 21 on April 15th had already almost accomplished the above feat but he did it as a Dodger and he did it while only walking one. Now it is very possible that Tom andPlaschke are completely unaware of this game because the Lakers were still playing and the local media doesn't pay attention to the Dodgers until the Laker's close their doors for the summer. It might also explain why they have been oblivious to the great beginning that Chad Billingsley had to the season.

Tom and the other media guys would have traded 20 year old Fernando Valenzuela for Vida Blue thinking we needed an established  "ace"  to win a world series. Funny thing happened in 1981, we won a World Championship and it was Fernando who led us to that World Series.

So I looked into how many lefthanded pitchers had struck out 13 and walked one since 1954 since that is as far back at baseball reference goes for their play index on individual performances. The list is very impressive and even more impressive is that ClaytonKershaw is the youngest LH pitcher to have managed the feat. Only 20 southpaws have managed the feat in 55 years of baseball and of those 20 you have some of the greatest LH pitchers to ever pitch in the post integrated era. Sandy Koufax, Randy Johnson, Steve Carlton, Vida Blue, Ron Guidry, Johan Santana, and Mickey Lolich are names that anyone familiar with the history of baseball knows about. This doesn't prove anything but I was just curious how many southpaws had done this feat and how they stack up in history.

Every-time I do something like this I'm always reminded just how awesome Sandy Koufax was. He did this trick six times, with Randy Johnson pulling down four entries. Carlton, Hamels, Higuera, and Baylor Moore were able to do it twice.


Pitcher Earliest Age One Two Three Four Five Six
Koufax, Sandy 24.225 9/29/65 8/11/60 7/12/63 9/29/66 8/16/64 6/26/62
Johnson, Randy 29.36 9/26/93 9/5/93 5/10/00 9/5/99
Carlton, Steve 27.13 10/3/82 5/7/72
Hamels, Cole 23.275 9/28/07 6/11/08
Higuera, Teddy 28.23 5/19/87 6/28/87
Moore, Baylor 21.18 8/23/72 7/23/72
Abbott, Jim 24.005 9/24/91
Blue, Vida 26.36 7/23/76
Downing, Al 22.058 8/25/63
Guidry, Ron 28.26 5/16/79
Hurst, Bruce 31.017 4/10/89
Kershaw, Clayton
21.027 4/15/09
Langston, Mark 32.043 10/2/92
Leibrandt, Charlie 34.327 8/27/91
Lolich, Mickey 27.007 9/19/67
Norman, Fred 31.26 5/7/74
O'Dell, Billy 29.14 7/4/61
Santana, Johan 30.03 4/12/09
Short, Chris 28.28 6/30/66
Wolf, Randy 26.03 9/21/02

 

According to game score the Kershaw April 15th game was not that special other then for the age at which he accomplished the task. Given time I expect him to move up the list and I'm much rather see him do it as a Dodger then as a Blue Jay. I've watched the Dodgers since 1969 and this is the best young arm I've ever seen come out of our system, not seeing him mature as a Dodger would break many a Dodger fans heart.

Many a good young lefthander has peaked early and ended with a mediocre or shortened career, even the hard throwing ones. So now I'm curious, just how good does the 21 year old Clayton compare to the other young lefthanders in the history of the game since integration. The ERA+ numbers don't make me comfortable, 34 LHP under the age of 23 have had a season like Kershaw is having and barely a HOF among them with quite a few pitchers who never reached the heights they reached at that young age again. While looking at the pitchers and those who were strike out artists likeKershaw it is even more uncomfortable viewing. Is Kershaw the next Kazmir , Sudden Sam McDowell, Herb Score, or god forbid Oliver Perez? I hope not, I hope he writes his own chapter and does not follow the path of anyone on the list. I hope for more, I hope that is not a false hope.

Face it, the Dodgers had baserunners against Carpenter and Wainwright but these are two of the best RHP in the NL right now. The bullpen imploded against a now potent Cardinal offense with the addition of DeRosa and Holliday to the lineup. 

I can't really talk about Billingsley's game. I turned it on in bottom of the sixth so all the waxing about his brilliant five innings meant nothing to me as I saw him fail to finish the sixth in a fiasco of an inning. Not exactly the way to go about silencing the critics.

I'd also like Tripon to quit showing tweets from the idiots. If I wanted to know what the idiots were tweeting I'd follow them.

We like to see the big picture here but in the short picture the scribes from hell have been telling us we need an "ace", we need to upgrade our bullpen,  and the first two games of this road trip only gave these scribes all sorts of  ammunition for a big trade.

Over the next two games it would be nice if we came back with a statement of our own. Kershaw and Kuroda can show the doubters that they can compete against the tough Cardinals, and the offense needs to remember how to drive in a run. Two games into this road trip this is starting to smell like the awful road trip in August last year when the Dodgers forget how hit with runners in scoring position.  Let us stop the carnage now so we don't start comparing this road trip to that road trip from hell. It is alot to ask of a 21 year old to be a stopper, but we didn't ask any less of Fernando in 1981.

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Pirates/Mariners trade

Jack Wilson & Ian Snell for Jeff Clement & change

by silverwidow on Jul 29, 2009 9:54 AM PDT reply actions  

Last night, top of the sixth inning

Nice article, Phil.
Since you turned on the game in the 6th inning then you may have seen the Dodgers leave runners on at first and at third base. I want to discuss Torre’s decision to let the pitcher hit for himself. (PLS NOTE: Who the pitcher is doesn’t seem to matter; Torre has done this in similar 5th-7th inning situations, where runs were at a premium, and the offense lacked timely hitting. )
I kept asking myself why, as Billingsley went up to bat in the top of the 6th inning with runners at the corners and 2 outs, why Torre didn’t pull him for a pinch hitter? On the one hand, the Dodgers were getting men on base, and in scoring position. On the other hand, they weren’t coming up with the timely hit. On still another hand, Billingsley, through 5 innings had struck out a half dozen or so and had allowed only one hit. On the other hand, he’s a pitcher for goodness sakes, not a batsman, and at that point in the game, nothing was more important than to grab momentum by scoring the game’s first run. I kept asking myself what was the benefit of letting the pitcher stay in the game, high pitch count notwithstanding (and miss an opportunity to score runs)? Would Torre end up taking him out before the next inning finished, as he had done in similar scenarios with other pitchers, more than a few times already this season? In the end he did exactly that.
 I really don’t understand Joe Torre’s reasoning.

by Connector on Jul 29, 2009 10:11 AM PDT reply actions  

Completely disagree

I was waiting for somebody to bring this up. It is classic Monday Morning quarterbacking. No manager would have pinch hit for Billingsley in that situation. He had only thrown 56 pitches and only surrendered 1 hit through 5! He was absolutely cruising. Now, in hindsight, it is easy to say that he should have pulled Billingsley (only because of the results of the sixth inning) but I can’t imagine how any manager would have pulled their pitcher there—- I know I certainly agreed with the decision. The fact that Billingsley came up with runners on twice in that game was unfortunate and unlucky— but that’s just the cost of doing business in the NL. No way should Billingsley have been pulled in that scenario.

by Michael White on Jul 29, 2009 10:15 AM PDT up reply actions  

I think Torre made the right call

1. Billingsley was pitching great with a very small pitch count
2. There were two outs. The real problem was Matt Kemp failing to get the run in with his weak ass fly ball to RF.
3. Our pinch hitters suck.
4. I don’t think any manager pulls his pitcher with a shutout after five innings with that pitch count.

Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen

by Phil Gurnee on Jul 29, 2009 10:16 AM PDT up reply actions  

Phil's right.

I’m usually on the other side of this situation on pulling Billingsley because I think Torre’s unnecessarily pushing him past his limits. But yesterday’s game was fine with Billingsley pitching through the 6th.

That 6th inning was just everything that possibly could go wrong did.

by Tripon on Jul 29, 2009 10:31 AM PDT up reply actions  

Looks like Cliff Lee is going to the PHillies.

by Tripon on Jul 29, 2009 10:40 AM PDT reply actions  

12:42pm: Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi report that the sides have agreed to a deal that sends Cliff Lee and Ben Francisco to Philly for Jason Knapp, Carlos Carrasco, Jason Donald and Lou Marson. The teams still have to examine medical records for the deal to go through.

by Tripon on Jul 29, 2009 10:48 AM PDT reply actions  

From ESPN
Panic on the streets of San Fran

Madison Bumgarner, LHP, Giants (Double-A Connecticut)
Tuesday’s stats: 1.2 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 0 BB, 0 K
One of the top pitching prospects in the game, Bumgarner retired only half of the batters he faced Tuesday, got ejected in the second inning for delivering a pitch behind a batter’s head, and came close to making physical contact with not one, but two umps. Here’s the thing: That is not the bad news. The scary part is that one scout in attendance said Bumgarner only reached the upper 80s with his fastball, and that his command was erratic. It could just be the grind of a full season catching up to him, but at the same time, he hasn’t even thrown 100 innings yet this year, so there are some whispers of him getting shut down soon.

by Tripon on Jul 29, 2009 11:11 AM PDT reply actions  

Ned should dangle Billingsley out there, It’s our only hope to land Doc.

by Rolex l on Jul 29, 2009 11:18 AM PDT reply actions  

NO!

How many more cost-controlled years do we have of Billingsley? Doc’s a FA next year? Dumb move!!

by Seanny Rotten on Jul 29, 2009 12:34 PM PDT up reply actions  

Bills is under team control through 2012 I believe, We’d be giving up 2011/2012 Bills for a better chance at winning now and next year.

by Rolex l on Jul 29, 2009 12:41 PM PDT reply actions  

It would be a ballsy move by Ned, if it works out he looks like a complete genius.

by Rolex l on Jul 29, 2009 12:42 PM PDT up reply actions  

Not really

How much better is Doc than Billz? Not THAT much better.

by Brendan Scolari on Jul 29, 2009 5:43 PM PDT up reply actions  

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2012 Dodgers Payroll

Italics denote estimates
Pos No Player 2012 Salary
C 17 Ellis $500,000 team control
1B 7 Loney $6,375,000
2B 14 Ellis $2,500,000
3B 5 Uribe $8,000,000
SS 9 Gordon $485,000 team control
LF 21 Rivera $4,000,000
CF 27 Kemp $10,000,000
RF 16 Ethier $10,950,000

IF/OF 6 Hairston $2,250,000
OF 10 Gwynn $850,000
2B/3B 3 Kennedy $800,000
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IF 12 Sellers $485,000 team control

SP 22 Kershaw $8,500,000 arb
SP 58 Billingsley $9,000,000
SP 29 Lilly $12,000,000
SP 37 Capuano $3,000,000
SP 44
Harang $3,000,000

CL 54 Guerra $485,000 team control
RHP 74
Jansen $500,000 team control
RHP 55 Guerrier $4,750,000
RHP Coffey $1,000,000
RHP 66 MacDougal $650,000
LHP 57 Elbert $485,000 team control
RHP 36
Hawksworth $500,000 team control

TJ 41 De La Rosa $485,000 team control



Manny $8,087,432 deferred


Andruw $3,375,000 deferred


Pierre $3,050,000 deferred
Furcal $3,000,000 deferred
Kuroda $2,000,000 deferred
Garland $1,500,000 option buyout
Blake $1,250,000 option buyout

Totals
$114,662,432

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Players on 40-man roster used as roster
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Current 40-man roster count: 40
(not including Belisario)

2012 Non-Roster Invitees

No Player Age*
63 Jose Ascanio rhp
27
61 Alberto Castillo lhp
36
60 Matt Chico lhp
29
35 John Grabow lhp
33
59 Angel Guzman rhp
30
47 Wil Ledezma lhp
31
72 Shane Lindsay rhp
27
62 Fernando Nieve rhp 29
73 Scott Rice lhp 30
70 Will Savage rhp
27
71 Ryan Tucker rhp
25

30 Josh Bard c 34
82 Griff Erickson c 24
81 Matt Wallachc 26
67 Jeff Baisley 3b/1b 29
62 Luis Cruz ss/2b 28
33 Josh Fields 3b 29
64 Lance Zawadzki if 27
56 Cory Sullivan of 32

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