Pregame Dodger Notes
by Eric Stephen on Jul 29, 2009 2:15 PM PDT
in Dodgers Game Previews
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PrintPhil gave you his homage to today's starter, Clayton Kershaw, earlier this morning. Here are some pregame notes for today's game, the third of four at Busch Stadium, aka The Seventh Circle of Hell for the Dodgers:
Since May 1, Clayton Kershaw has a 1.96 ERA in 16 starts, the lowest ERA in baseball during that time
Over his last three starts, Joel PIneiro is 3-0 with a 1.69 ERA over 22 innings. He has walked an amazing 13 batters in 19 starts this year
Andre Ethier has a nine-game hitting streak for the second time this season, and is hitting .500/.564/.853 over his last nine games.
From last night's broadcast, Matt Kemp has the third highest "batting average while not striking out" (not quite BABIP as first introduced) in MLB history (minimum 1,000 balls in play). Manny Ramirez is 4th:
| Player | BA* |
| Ryan Howard | .414 |
| Babe Ruth | .406 |
| Matt Kemp | .404 |
| Manny Ramirez | .403 |
Speaking of Matt Kemp, the premiere of his "In My Own Words" will be on Prime Ticket after the game.
The Cardinals are going with all righthanders in tonight's lineup:
| Dodgers | Cardinals | |||
| SS | Furcal |
2B | Lugo | |
| 2B | Hudson | 3B | DeRosa | |
| LF | Manny | 1B | Pujols | |
| RF | Ethier | LF | Holliday | |
| 3B | Blake |
CF | Ludwick | |
| 1B | Loney | RF | Stavinoha | |
| C | Martin | C | Molina | |
| CF | Kemp | SS | Ryan | |
| P | Kershaw |
P | Pineiro |
|
Get your guesses in for today's "Clogging The Bases" here.
Game Time: 5:15pm
TV: Prime Ticket
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Nothing too bad…just noted that all that list told him was that those guys struck out a lot. To be fair, Collins was confusing. He called it BABIP at first, but in fact that stat includes HR.
by Eric Stephen on Jul 29, 2009 3:58 PM PDT up reply actions
i cant believe that
joe torre didnt change the lineup around AT ALL after these past 2 games. Also the reason la Russa doesnt care about his outfield defense tonight is because pineiro doesnt allow any fly balls and the dodgers forgot how to hit them anyways so i doubt the outfield will need to do any work.
Ludwick has made some good plays in each of the last two nights in RF. But, you are right about Pineiro.
by Eric Stephen on Jul 29, 2009 2:19 PM PDT up reply actions
I was thinking about that too
Though the only glaring problem with the lineup I see is Kemp at 8.
by Michael White on Jul 29, 2009 2:26 PM PDT up reply actions
also blake 5th
and its time to change the lineup around anyways. The only glaring problem besides that is The Lineup cant score so you gotta mix it up a little
Ya, I don't like Blake 5th either
but I doubt it makes or breaks the lineup.
I get what you’re saying though. The lineup in this order couldn’t score runs yesterday so why not mix it up. The problem with that is of course that the exact same thing that happened yesterday is unlikely to occur again today. No reason to think that the Dodgers with this lineup will have worse luck than in a different lineup.
Move Kemp up, move Blake down. Otherwsie I don’t really care. Furcal and Hudson have been doing their job at the top of the order whilst Manny and Ethier haven’t driven them home. I wouldn’t advocate taking them out of the 3 & 4 spots; rather I’d just hope that the hits starts being strung together today.
by Michael White on Jul 29, 2009 2:33 PM PDT up reply actions
Would you move Manny down?
He seems to be the one who has struggled the most recently? Just curious.
I would do this for a mix up lineup
Martin
Kemp
Manny
Ethier
Blake
Loney
Hudson
Pitcher
Furcal
by Michael White on Jul 29, 2009 2:44 PM PDT up reply actions
i would personally like ethier batting third and manny 4th
because that would Create a MONSTER. Ethier batting in front of manny would put up big numbers like he did last year batting in front of him. and facing lefties i would bat kemp behind manny
Ya, clumping the Dodgers best hitters next to each other at the top of the lineup would seem to be advantageous as opposed to spreading them out needlessly….
by Michael White on Jul 29, 2009 2:56 PM PDT up reply actions
and for all the people who would like to trade for Victor Martinez
(including me) He has been pretty horrible in the last 2 months hitting .240 in June and .169 in July.
Carlos Santana could do that
Wasn’t it just a year ago that Victor Martinez couldn’t buy a home run?
Is this the guy you want manning first base instead of Loney? He’s a slight upgrade this year unless his monthly trends continue:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?n1=martivi01&year=2009&t=b
But I’d be betting on Loney in 2010 over Victor. How many catchers get out from behind the plate at age 30 and hit better as a position player? By then the legs are already shot.
Carlos Santana could do that
Take a drink!!!
2009-10 LA Kings Hockey: Where Smyt Happens!!
by DodgerBlueBalls on Jul 29, 2009 3:20 PM PDT up reply actions
We should set up a Paypal donation link so we can pay for your liver transplant. :)
by Eric Stephen on Jul 29, 2009 3:28 PM PDT up reply actions
MLBTR
4:39pm: Bill Shaikin and Mike DiGiovanna of the LA Times report that the Dodgers have discussed softening their stance on Chad Billingsley and would consider making him available in a trade, but they’re still not expected to do so.
bad news.. i hope we dont trade bills
i think
these guys made up bull because if they dont they will loose their job because they arent reporting anything
Even if the Dodgers were to soften their stance
What the hell is point of publicizing that; particularly after an outing last night. Why not just scream on the top of their lungs, “Billingsley is not as good as we thought. We are not willing to accept low-ball offers for our 24 year old all star pitcher and sell when his value is the absolute lowest.”
I’m calling BS on this one. Dodgers did not say this.
by Michael White on Jul 29, 2009 2:50 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
I meant, “we are now” not we are “not”
by Michael White on Jul 29, 2009 2:51 PM PDT up reply actions
There are a lot of people in any baseball organization.
I’m guessing that some low level exec panicked and threw it out there, and the people higher in the org, like Kim Ng, Logan White, Ned Coletti quickly said no.
My favorite juxtaposition of the day is the idea that because the Phillies got Cliff Lee for prospects, that the Dodgers should now trade a major leaguer, and prospects in response.
No offense to you, Tripon, but I would rather never read anything Plaschke…
2009-10 LA Kings Hockey: Where Smyt Happens!!
by DodgerBlueBalls on Jul 29, 2009 3:19 PM PDT up reply actions
so true...
2009-10 LA Kings Hockey: Where Smyt Happens!!
by DodgerBlueBalls on Jul 29, 2009 3:21 PM PDT up reply actions
Maybe as a talking point
Other Team: Hey how about our star pitcher for Bills and some prospects.
Dodgers: Sure, if you can trade for Pujols and throw him in on the deal, if you can’t here’s our rummage bin, see if you can’t mix or match four or five of our guys and we’ll talk.
I'd like Ned to hit us from the side again with a Manny deal
I remember how out of left field that one was.
Would this deal be out of the left field bullpen then? :)
by Eric Stephen on Jul 29, 2009 3:26 PM PDT up reply actions
Oh man
Colletti would deserve a plaque in walk of heroes thing that I’m not sure if the Dodgers ever did…
by Michael White on Jul 29, 2009 3:29 PM PDT up reply actions
They are planning to do a walk of fame type thing in Glendale…basically on the “lake”
by Eric Stephen on Jul 29, 2009 3:30 PM PDT up reply actions
how about trading for washburn??
hes a decent pitcher…in halladay talks the bluejays want kershaw or bills…
how about trading for washburn??
hes a decent pitcher…in halladay talks the bluejays want kershaw or bills…
I don’t think there any point in acquiring a fifth starter.
"I don't know the meaning of the word 'surrender'!... I mean, I know it, I'm not dumb... Just - not in this context."
Do you think Washburn is better than Kuroda, Kershaw, Wolf or Billingsley?
Just curious. If so, then he would be an attractive trade. If not, what’s the point?
by Michael White on Jul 29, 2009 3:27 PM PDT up reply actions
well the dodger management can always ask what they want in exchange...
and if any big names like kershaw, bills, kemp, or good prospects appear than forget the trade…
but if they dont they can certainly make a trade that would help the dodgers gain a step up over the competition…
Well I wasn’t asking because one of those guys would be in the trade. I ask because if Washburn is not better than those pitchers, as the fifth pitcher he wouldnt start in the playoffs anyway. And, since the Dodgers making the playoffs is a very good bet at this point, I don’t see what picking up a guy who’s main function would be to start for the rest of the season (as opposed to the post season.)
by Michael White on Jul 29, 2009 3:34 PM PDT up reply actions
Hah!
MLBastianRT @BryanHoch: Posada on Halladay: "You’re asking way too much…He’s worth the price, but I don’t think what they’re asking is fair."2 minutes ago from TweetDeck
If the Dodgers play the Phillies in the NLCS
Who would be the 4 starters 1 through 4 if we acquire Halladay or Washburn?
Why do people want to acquire Washburn?
"I don't know the meaning of the word 'surrender'!... I mean, I know it, I'm not dumb... Just - not in this context."
Look at his numbers hes been real solid this year
by SeanMillerSavior on Jul 29, 2009 3:33 PM PDT up reply actions
As I’ve mentioned before, Washburn’s numbers have been based a lot on luck. Putting up the same peripherals he is now, he simply will not continue to produce the same ERA as he has done so far this season.
I wouldn’t mind getting Washburn if we gave up nobody in our top 10 prospects, but if he costs anything at all I would walk away since we have replacements for the #5 spot that would produce close enough to what Washburn would bring.
Washburn would be good in that he could eat some innings, but other than that he’s not worth much at all.
by Eric Stephen on Jul 29, 2009 3:37 PM PDT up reply actions
you keep saying its all luck
but he continues to pitch deep into games and not give up many runs
by SeanMillerSavior on Jul 29, 2009 3:38 PM PDT up reply actions
Well hey, if he's bringing the Seattle defense to play in the field for him (the best in the majors)
then we could just look at runs scored/innings pitched. But that, and yes, luck factors also matter.
by Michael White on Jul 29, 2009 3:40 PM PDT up reply actions
it helps to have the best outfield defense
when your a flyball pitcher
pitching at Dodger stadium
and with Kemp manning CF. . I dont see how Washburn’s nubmer would drop off to much
by SeanMillerSavior on Jul 29, 2009 3:42 PM PDT up reply actions
having manny in left field
when your a left handed pitcher… the right handed batter pul it into left field
correct me if im wrong. . but doesnt SEA have a bad LF?
by SeanMillerSavior on Jul 29, 2009 3:46 PM PDT up reply actions
now they have saunders
who started in washburns last game who is supposldy a great defender
news flash tho. . . Washburn has pitched well all season
by SeanMillerSavior on Jul 29, 2009 3:50 PM PDT up reply actions
and is pitching in a contract year
which always helps
oh yeah
in his first like 10 starts he had endy chavez manning left field… also a GREAT defender. thats 3 gold glove outfielders. but then endy got injuerd and is out
Guiterrez has the best UZR in baseball
while Kemp is at number 2.
by Michael White on Jul 29, 2009 3:44 PM PDT up reply actions
It's not all luck
Washburn has done very well in limiting his walks this season. The thing I worry about is that he’s a flyball pitcher and only 7% of his flyballs end up as HRs. Those tend to average out to about 11-12% over time.
by Eric Stephen on Jul 29, 2009 3:42 PM PDT up reply actions
That and Washburn’s BABIP is .245 this year. The Mariners defense helps this, but it really should be in the .280 range or so.
Washburn’s last 5 years BABIP:
2009: .245
2008: .306
2007: .288
2006: .281
2005: .293
by Eric Stephen on Jul 29, 2009 3:46 PM PDT up reply actions
But those new pitches are still producing a line drive rate of 21.4%, the second highest total over his last 5 years.
by Eric Stephen on Jul 29, 2009 3:47 PM PDT up reply actions
X-FIP of Starters
Kuroda: 3.82
Billingsley: 3.92
Kershaw: 4.26
Wolf: 4.38
Washburn: 4.65
That would make Washburn the worst option of the 5.
by Michael White on Jul 29, 2009 3:39 PM PDT up reply actions
lol you know something is wrong when Kuroda is the top pitcher right now
by SeanMillerSavior on Jul 29, 2009 3:40 PM PDT up reply actions
Small sample size
He didn’t have enough innings to qualify. Figured it was better to include him (at the SSS) then just ignore him.
by Michael White on Jul 29, 2009 3:41 PM PDT up reply actions
No, it normalizes the flyballs so that about 11-12% of them end up as HRs
by Eric Stephen on Jul 29, 2009 3:44 PM PDT up reply actions
Does it take into account that he pitches in the AL and those other four pitch in the NL. If not, I think AL pitchers deserve to have the FIP or x-FIP bumped down a little bit in order to compare apples to apples.
vr, Xei
I don’t think they do any park or league adjustment…it is expressed as a raw number like ERA
by Eric Stephen on Jul 29, 2009 4:05 PM PDT up reply actions
No. The drivers for FIP and x-FIP is basically the same
and based on the TTO’s. The only difference between the two is the aformentioned normalization of the home run rate.
by Michael White on Jul 29, 2009 4:07 PM PDT up reply actions
But even still
the x-FIP’s are not all that close. Would the difference between Wolf and Washburn tighten up? Perhaps, but we’re basically just guessing at this point, and besides, Wolf is already on the team whereas Washburn would cost prospects.
by Michael White on Jul 29, 2009 4:08 PM PDT up reply actions
yeah, that’s the key for me. Even if Washburn is an upgrade over Wolf or Kuroda, he isn’t a huge upgrade, at least not one worth giving up a good prospect for.
by Eric Stephen on Jul 29, 2009 4:17 PM PDT up reply actions
if i needed one pitcher to pitch game 7 on the dodgers roster against the phils
it would be kuroda. He has dominated them. and kuroda has been solid when hes pitched, hes just getting a little unlucky
His domination consists of only 3 games
by Michael White on Jul 29, 2009 3:45 PM PDT up reply actions
how is that small
3 games where he has allowed 10 hits in over 20 innings
For the same reason I wouldn't sit Billingsley against the Phillies
Bills had 2 shitty outings against Philadelphia, Kuroda had 3 great ones. Over time both of those will even out, IMO.
by Michael White on Jul 29, 2009 3:54 PM PDT up reply actions
ok if we acquire halladay who are our 4 starters in the NLCS if we play the phillies
1. Halladay 2. ? 3.? 4.?
you would think kuroda has to be one of them because of his domination of the phillies in his 3 career starts. Bills because he is our ace. and kershaw and wolf both deserve to start also. So who would be our 2nd 3rd and 4th game starters?
We're not getting Halladay but
2. Billingsley
3. Wolf
"I don't know the meaning of the word 'surrender'!... I mean, I know it, I'm not dumb... Just - not in this context."
instead of making his scheduled flight to phenoix, freddy sanchez has been asked to stay in San fransisco.!
According to one source, the Giants have acquired Pirates second baseman Freddy Sanchez in a one-for-one deal for a minor-leaguer. I am seeking more confirmation.
Read more: http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/blogs/giants/detail?&entry_id=44521#ixzz0MgwLi5RI
EVEN BETTER
5:51pm: Kovacevic is reporting that the minor leaguer is AA pitcher Tim Alderson. This is an impressive haul for Sanchez—Alderson was ranked the #4 prospect in the Giants’ system.
WTF
ALDERSON!??! 20 year old doing a great job in AA
hahha
McCovey Chronicles is going insane lol
by SeanMillerSavior on Jul 29, 2009 3:58 PM PDT reply actions
Nevermind
It’s Schmidt, believe or not. Gurnick has the news (kengurnick.mlblogs.com)
One word: CRAZY.
I will now watch Friday’s game with a helmet on.
by Eric Stephen on Jul 29, 2009 4:42 PM PDT up reply actions
Torre Just said Schmidt starts Friday
said he had a bullpen today, and hopes that Schmidt will get a better result than Sunday.
ed_price#Indians GM Mark Shapiro says he traded Lee because he won’t be able to add in winter & didn’t think Cle could contend in ’10 w/current club9 minutes ago from UberTwitter
Hard to see a GM saying he won’t contend next year, even if its true.
by Eric Stephen on Jul 29, 2009 4:50 PM PDT up reply actions
Right, and now he said the opposite. That’s surprising.
by Eric Stephen on Jul 29, 2009 4:52 PM PDT up reply actions
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