Chad Billingsley & Bequeathed Runs

We can’t lower our expectations on Chad to a five inning pitcher. If that is all he is then we shouldn’t have been worried about trading him for the Doc. He’s needs to be better then that, alot better.

Don’t throw things but he’s Brad Penny. High pitch counts, lots of foul balls. Chad needs to get more swings and misses and he needs to be more consistent in the zone early in the game so teams don’t wait him out.

“Reporting from Atlanta — Russell Martin blamed himself for the outcome. So did Orlando Hudson and Randy Wolf.

But in a game with as many pivotal moments as the Dodgers’ 4-3 loss to the Atlanta Braves on Saturday, could any of them reasonably be held accountable as the primary cause of defeat, especially when a few inches here and there spelled the difference between success and failure?"

http://www.latimes.com/sports/la-sp-dodgers-braves2-2009aug02,0,5517757.story

Its a good season when multiple guys can say, “Yeah, that’s my fault” and it doesn’t really matter much in the scheme of things.

Nobody knows what prospects Colletti is going to end up giving away in trade(s), but when I think about prospects that Colletti is likely to be offering, Steve Johnson’s name always tops the list. That is, he is good bet to have a major league future, but the Dodgers probably don’t see him having a high enough ceiling to worry that they will ever miss him.

little table Eric. Well analyzed!

The betting public has pushed the Braves win probability up from 53% (opening line) to a recent probability of 55.16%. I wonder what perception is pushing the Braves up as a larger favorite. At the same time the Over/Under total has gone from 7.7 up to 7.9. Somewhere along the line, the betting public thinks the Braves are going to score more runs. Are they anticipating a lineup change (McCann??) or just that the original line was a little off? Time will tell.
vr, Xei

earlier the misconception was the Mota was giving up more inherited runs then reality and now you show that Chad is actually lucky. Baseball HQ has a stat for this called Strand Rate:

Strand Rate as a Leading Indicator. Strand Rate finds great utility in explaining variances between a pitcher’s ERA and his performance indicators. Pitchers with strand rates over 80% almost always have exemplary ERAs. Starters and middle relievers who post this level in a given season have an 80% likelihood of watching their ERA rise in the following year. The percentage drops to 50% for short relievers. Pitchers with strand rates under 65% almost always have inflated ERAs, but have an 89% likelihood of watching their ERA improve in the following year. In addition, 83% will improve their ERA by more than one run.

Chad has a strand rate of .70% with an xERA of 4.14 compared to his actual of 3.96. We have stopped using the term ace with Chad because he simply has stopped pitching like an ace. Nothing wrong with our definition, he simply isn’t measuring up to the qualifications. He has plenty of time to turn that around but if he doesn’t, and we struggle in the playoffs, while Doc continues his move toward consideration for the AL Cy Young then you have to wonder if all of us who mocked those who called for Chad to be the centerpiece of the Doc deal were barking up the wrong tree.

What I kind of liked from the table above is that in five of the starts Chad left with just a man on first. Those are the Torre-patented let’s see if he can get through one more inning but I’m pulling him after one baserunner moves. :)

I don’t necessarily disagree with that practice by Torre, in that sometimes you try to steal or sneak an inning here and there to attempt to rest the bullpen. An example of that working was Kershaw’s last start, when he would have been pulled after a guy got on in the 8th, but that never happened.

But I know it can sometimes be maddening if that inning occurs right after the pitcher batted.

What a start to his Cardinal career! Talk about making back all the millions he blew with his Oakland performance.

I mean, why else would we go after premier relief pitchers?

shields through 7

Earlier in the week, I knew the ESPN game was coming tonight, but today seems like a day I would have enjoyed a nice 10am start.

would they like celebrate them come up to bat?

Lowered his ERA to 3.59 with today’s outing.