So Far, So Good For Sherrill

by Eric Stephen on Aug 19, 2009 7:00 AM PDT in News Comment 42 comments

George Sherrill has delivered the goods in the very early going of his Dodger career (photo courtesy of Jon SooHoo / Dodgers)

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Since George Sherrill has donned his number 52 Dodger uniform -- a number he acquired at the cost of a laptop computer to James McDonald, per Dylan Hernandez of the LA Times -- he has done his job. Nine times he has entered a game, and he has yet to allow a run. He did allow an inherited run to score last night, charged to James McDonald's ledger, but that was the first inherited runner Sherrill allowed to touch home plate in six opportunities.

Opposing batters are hitting .206/.289/.294 against Sherrill as a Dodger, and his stinginess is approaching a Dodger record. Since moving to Los Angeles in 1958, the Dodgers have only had four other pitchers start their Dodger career with as many as nine straight appearances without allowing a run:

Pitcher	Year(s)	Gms	IP	H	R	BB	K	WHIP
Steve Wilson	1991-92	15	10.2	4	0	5	9	0.844
Dave Stewart	1978-81	11	17.1	8	0	8	11	0.923
Brad Clontz	1998	9	11.2	0	0	3	7	0.257
Chin-hui Tsao	2007	9	10.2	1	0	2	7	0.281
George Sherrill	2009	9	9.2	7	0	4	6	1.138

There will be a point when George Sherrill gives up a run. That is to be expected. But as someone who has been death to lefties over his entire career -- opposing left-handed batters have hit .163/.225/.266 against Sherill -- Sherrill figures to be a valuable piece of the Dodger bullpen for some time.

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I'm glad that Sherrill has done so well so well

But if Broxton had walked Brendan Ryan with Albert Pujols on deck in the eighth inning, people would have gone nuts. During the Sherrill honeymoon period, Sherrill does it and no one blinks. Broxton gets Pujols out, and no one will remember.

by JonWeisman on Aug 19, 2009 7:44 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Dodger fans are understandably frustrated

At Broxton’s road performance. A 1.61 road WHIP will bring out the buzzards.

by stillnotah8er on Aug 19, 2009 8:37 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Broxton's BABIP on the road is .315

compared to home BABIP of .182. Perhaps a little bit unlucky, no?

And people have mentioned to you several times that there are two outliers in the road appearances when we know that Broxton had the injured toe.

by Michael White on Aug 19, 2009 8:48 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I know. I saw the game in San Diego.

I was sitting twenty feet away from the radar gun. But he hasn’t exactly won our confidence back in his August road appearances, when everyone (except idiots like myself) has seemed relatively confident that the toe isn’t an issue. As for BABIP, let’s hope Haeger stays “lucky”.

by stillnotah8er on Aug 19, 2009 8:54 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I’m not confident his toe is not an issue. How could I be? I’m not his doctor, and the team has not disclosed any information suggesting his toe is unhealthy. Considering the road woes you are speaking to could just as easily be explained by the normal ebbs and flows of a season, I’m not willing to go through a progession of:

1) Broxton is not pitching well on the road
2) So therefore he must be injured.

If he is injured, then action should be taken. But if his toe is the issue, is their any logical reason that it would only effect him in road stadiums? Or is a more likely explanation that these are normal fluctuations during a long season.

by Michael White on Aug 19, 2009 9:01 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

If you can find an equivalent road/home split

In terms of WHIP or ERA currently active in the majors with over 40 innings pitched, I’d be curious to see it.

Is there a road/toe connection? No idea.

by stillnotah8er on Aug 19, 2009 9:05 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm not sure what point you are trying to make

2 of the poor road starts are explained by injury. If he is injured now then we would all agree to take action. But the point of analyzing stats is for their predictive value. So therefore if he is healthy now those appearances he made on the road when unhealthy would have very little predictive value and you shouldn’t be putting too much weight on it.

by Michael White on Aug 19, 2009 9:12 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Right, exclude the SDG and MIL game in early July

Starting with July 29, he has been a disaster on the road. Anyhow, enough negativity for the early morning. Sherrill is great, kudos to Ned & co.

by stillnotah8er on Aug 19, 2009 9:17 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Starting with July 29, he has been a disaster on the road.

That’s only 4 games. I’m fairly confident that every pitcher has had a stretch of 4 bad road games in a row.

by Michael White on Aug 19, 2009 9:21 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

they weren't in a row

the blown saves are sprinkled throughout, like a fine donut… speaking of donuts, that’s what I should be doing at 9AM instead of questioning the abilities of a guy who could crush my spine with his pinky…

by stillnotah8er on Aug 19, 2009 9:24 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Your claim is that he is been a disaster since July 29th on the road. There have been 4 road games that Broxton has appeared in since July 29th. And now you are conceding that he wasn’t even a disaster in all of them, but that the poor appearances were sprinkled in those 4.

by Michael White on Aug 19, 2009 9:28 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

you're right, I'm also looking at the Atlanta disaster at home

silly me.

by stillnotah8er on Aug 19, 2009 9:33 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm surprised you are trying to debate this

he’s a closer where bad games sprinkled in with good games is not okay. He needs to be good almost all of the time, that is why he gets the ball in the 9th. Being good most of the time is not the criteria I expect of my closer.

Sherrill is not the answer he would also drive us crazy, Broxton is the answer but that doesn’t mean I can’t expect him to be better at his job. That doesn’t mean I can’t hope for a Nathan like performance. He has the stuff, he has no physical reason for not being an elite closer the whole season not just parts of it. The defenders of Broxton talk about him like he was already Joe Nathan. If we are going to talk about Broxton like he is Nathan then he needs to perform like he is Nathan. A guy who has only given up runs five times all year and multiple runs only twice.

At this point Broxton is a solid closer, not a great one and not a lousy one. He’s okay, both sides should agree he’s not terrible and he’s not elite.

by meercatjohn on Aug 19, 2009 9:44 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Since becoming a closer, Broxton and Nathan are remarkably similar across the board.

by Eric Stephen on Aug 19, 2009 9:46 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Even factoring in Broxton's performance on the road

he still has the best FIP on the team.

by Michael White on Aug 19, 2009 8:55 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

That stat

Makes we wish Joe Nathan was a Dodger

by stillnotah8er on Aug 19, 2009 9:02 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

He should have the best FIP on the team

every closer should. They pitch one inning at at time for Christ’s sake. They should have the best WHIP, ERA, FIP and every other ratio stat. What is his FIP compared to his peers not his teammates? His WHIP, his ERA?

by meercatjohn on Aug 19, 2009 9:10 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't follow

why should a closer have better stats? Yes, the pitch one inning at a time but one bad outing is harder to statistically remedy. Starters have more chances to rebound and normalize their stats. And plenty of other pitchers throw 1 inning or less too. Set up men, LOOGYs, almost all bullpen guys except mopup/long relief.

by Michael White on Aug 19, 2009 9:15 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Your really asking?

Take a look at historical rate stats and you will see them dominated by relief pitchers not the elite starters.
For this year:
FIP
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=30&type=1&season=2009&month=0
Sure Lincecum and Grienke will sneak in there because they are having Cy Young seasons but for the most part these leaderboards will be dominated by top of the shelf relief pitchers.
WHIP
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=30&type=1&season=2009&month=0
K/9
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=30&type=1&season=2009&month=0

by meercatjohn on Aug 19, 2009 9:21 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

And in that context for the season he’s damn good.
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=rel&lg=all&qual=y&type=1&season=2009&month=0

However in the last 30 days he’s not even on the leaderboard.
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=rel&lg=all&qual=y&type=1&season=2009&month=3

And that last 30 days of performance is really all we care about, not what he did in April/May/June when we say, he makes us nervous.

by meercatjohn on Aug 19, 2009 9:16 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

one last (positive) comment

If FIP means anything, Feliz has had a smokin’ debut for the Rangers. I really hope they make the playoffs, that franchise has been waiting for a great season for a half century.

by stillnotah8er on Aug 19, 2009 9:22 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

It is not like they have never made the playoffs before.

by meercatjohn on Aug 19, 2009 9:23 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

No pennants in 50 years

while being the namesake of a truly crappy team. And in a 4-team division for the past ten without a single div win… that monster A-Rod contract… getting nothing out of that crazy home runs scored/allowed record they had a few years ago… it is kind of like they never have…

by stillnotah8er on Aug 19, 2009 9:26 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I do hope they

win the Wild Card, them or the Rays, but blowing that lead against Boston the other day did not help them any. They rarely have been able to end August in contention but as you said Feliz has given the bullpen a huge shot in the arm. Right now with Feliz, Wilson, Francisco they have an excellent back end the problem will be getting the ball to them. By the end of the year I’ll be surprised if they are not 10 games behind the Angels and five games off the Wild Card considering the rotation they are using.

by meercatjohn on Aug 19, 2009 9:31 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I've never been a Padilla believer

so that was one recent move in the right direction. pecota agrees with you – 88 for TEX and 93 for BOS (96 for ANA).

of course, I’d really love to see them luck into the pennant, because I know our bats would crush those starters.

by stillnotah8er on Aug 19, 2009 9:36 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sherril’ls x-FIP with the Dodgers is 4.18

by Michael White on Aug 19, 2009 7:52 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I’m fairly certain that my position on Broxton is clear. I didn’t intend this piece to be a “Sherrill for Closer” campaign piece; I was just interested that he has yet to give up a run (lucky or not) in nine straight appearances, and just how rare that was.

by Eric Stephen on Aug 19, 2009 8:00 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I understand your position – I was more discussing Dodger fans at large. Sorry for the misunderstanding.

by JonWeisman on Aug 19, 2009 8:28 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

No problem. I agree with your point though.

by Eric Stephen on Aug 19, 2009 8:45 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Broxton has struggled in Aug but

last night will go a long way to quieting the fans, however it is not their over active imagination that makes them uneasy these days when he comes in. He’s made seven appearances in Aug and given up runs in 3 of them moving his ERA from 2.77 to 3.12 with an OPS against of over .800. From the point of June 16th when he had an ERA of 1.36 he has given up at least two runs five times which is a lot when you only pitch one inning at a time. He’s not so perfect that I’d have any problem mixing and matching instead of always just giving him the ball in the 9th. When you have guys like Kuo, Sherrill, and Broxton I don’t see why they can’t be picked for the job at hand. Kuo has given up a run on in only one appearance in Aug, Sherrill zero. Broxton was lights out early in the year, that is not the case now, so just give me the best man for the job.

by meercatjohn on Aug 19, 2009 9:05 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I’ve got nothing against Sherrill and Kuo, I’m just talking about a double standard in how they are treated.

That being said, when Sherrill blows his first save – not that I’m rooting for it to happen – things will recalibrate.

by JonWeisman on Aug 19, 2009 9:07 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I saw the double standard

when anyone complained back in April/May but I think anyone who complains about being nervous when Jon enters a save situation right now has a right to be nervous.

by meercatjohn on Aug 19, 2009 9:27 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

It's still a double standard

It’s one thing to be nervous. It’s another thing to shout that he can’t do the job.

There are gradations and I’m not saying everyone shouts, but let’s face it, relative to his ability and overall career performance, Broxton has always been on a shorter leash with some people than other pitchers have been.

It’s almost as if those people are eager to see him fail so they can jump on him, and they are very reticent about crediting him when he does well. That was a big at-bat with Pujols and there was hardly a peep about it.

by JonWeisman on Aug 19, 2009 9:49 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well he is following the footsteps

of Saito/Gagne/Shaw. If he had followed Scott Radinsky he’d be considered a god.

by meercatjohn on Aug 19, 2009 9:54 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Shaw?

“One of these things is not like the others…” :)

by Eric Stephen on Aug 19, 2009 9:56 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Shaw was good,

tell me what was wrong with his numbers while he was our closer?

by meercatjohn on Aug 19, 2009 1:19 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Shaw = good
Saito = great
Gagne = transcendent

by Eric Stephen on Aug 19, 2009 2:02 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs

But you knew when you wrote the piece you would be opening up that can of worms.

by meercatjohn on Aug 19, 2009 9:06 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Agreed. And all this thinking this morning led me to write a Broxton piece too.

by Eric Stephen on Aug 19, 2009 9:44 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

It's too bad Fernando Valenzuela doesn't make that list

He went 12 game and 34 1/3 innings before allowing his first earned run, sullied only by two earned runs in the second inning of his major-league debut. And it wasn’t like he got lit after there should have been three outs. The inning went like this:

with one out, a batter reached on an error by Ron Cey and advanced on a balk.
an infield single moved up the runner.
the first run scored on an error by Derrel Thomas (at SS), the previous batter advanced to third [should be three outs with no runs at this point]
sacrifice fly, second run scored
fly out.

Those last four batters were Sarge Matthews, Bob Horner, Chris Chambliss, Dale Murphy. Not bad.

by David Young on Aug 19, 2009 11:33 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs