Happy Anniversary, James Loney

by Eric Stephen on Aug 21, 2009 2:00 PM PDT in Game Previews Comment 52 comments

Whatever the cause of James Loney's struggles at home, its imperative for the Dodgers to explore all avenues in trying to rectify the situation.

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The Dodgers won the first two games in San Francisco last week, but in the eight games since they have not won more than one in a row. Tonight, they get their chance against the Cubs, after winning the series opener thanks in large part to Russell Martin.

Martin last homered on July 26, and went 84 plate appearances in between home runs. That was his second-longest home run drought of the year, as he opened the year without a home run in 255 plate appearances.

Speaking of home run droughts, tonight is the one year anniversary of James Loney's last home run at Dodger Stadium. Since taking Luis Vizcaino of the Rockies deep, Loney has not done well at home:

James Loney: August 22, 2008 to Present
Split	G	PA	HR	BA/OBP/SLG	OPS
Home	74	298	0	.237/.305/.297	.602
Road	81	344	10	.312/.369/.455	.825

That's 74 games and 298 plate appearances at home without a home run from our first baseman. However, Loney has hit just fine on the road, so its not like he forgot how to hit. There's something about Dodger Stadium that is hindering Loney (batters eye, anyone?), and the sooner that is fixed the better Loney will be, and the better the team will be because of it.

This year, Loney has seven home runs, all on the road. The Dodger record for most home runs in a season, with none at home, is 11 by Willie Davis in 1969.

Randy Wolf, starting on the mound for the Dodgers tonight, has nine runs batted in this season, the most by a Dodger pitcher since Darren Dreifort in 1999. In all, there have been 22 pitchers in LA Dodger history to collect at least nine RBI, led by Don Drysdale's 19 in 1965. Drysdale, who hit seven home runs that year, was used as a pinch hitter 14 times.

Wolf leads the Dodgers in innings pitched this season, with 162.2. After he gets 22 more outs, he will pick up the first incentive clause in his contract, good for $500,000 once he hits 170 innings. Wolf, who has a base salary of $5 million this year, has a total of $3 million in incentives based on innings pitched, maxing out at 200 innings.

Randy Wells has been the best starting pitcher for the Cubs this season. The 26-year old rookie is 9-5 with a 3.01 ERA in 18 starts. He also leads the Cubs with a 3.69 FIP, and opposing batters have hit .256/.305/.355 against him this year. He has pitched a quality start in four of his last five outings.

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Game Time: 7:10pm

TV: KCAL

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Comments

Come on dodgers!

off to work tonight so won’t see the game but will be checking the score during my breaks!

by Witacume on Aug 21, 2009 2:17 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Don Drysdale was our guy.

by Dr. Geek on Aug 21, 2009 2:20 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Dodger stadium

historically looks very neutral on handedness. I don’t think there is anything to cure. Loney has never been very good and the likely explanation for the split is random variation around his mean. I think it is quite a stretch to suggest that Loney’s road split represents his true talent (even that wouldn’t be very good for a 1B) and that the Dodgers need to fix things at home. I suppose, though, bringing in the right field wall 50 feet would help him.

by Paul Scott on Aug 21, 2009 2:21 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

NL League average OPS this year is around .760

A .825 OPS would be great

by Tripon on Aug 21, 2009 2:25 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

for 1st baseman?

Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen

by Phil Gurnee on Aug 21, 2009 2:27 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

With the above average productions from CF, 2nd base, and argubably the pitcher's spot,I

I can live with an league average Loney and a below average 1st baseman.

In other words, I couldn’t figure out how to sort 1st baseman yet with B-R.

by Tripon on Aug 21, 2009 2:35 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

There are 24 players

listed by fangraphs as “qualified” first baseman.

The middle players are Todd Helton and Russel Branyan with OPS’s of 895 and 870 respectively. Therefore, Loney’s road numbers would be a bit below average, though not quite as bad as his current numbers.

FYI, Paul Konerko’s OPS is currently 825.

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=1b&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=1&season=2009&month=0

by mwhite06 on Aug 21, 2009 2:42 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Phil - I agree with everything you said a few threads back

We are building a good team – not a cheap one. Simply being inexpensive does not justify significantly below average performance. I’m not saying we should have signed Teixeira, but first base is probably a position where good teams MUST have production.

I don’t understand the “road stats indicate he’s better” argument – the home stats indicate he’s beyond terrible. You can argue it either way. I just think 1st base is an easy upgrade, and if cost is the rallying cry for Loney, 1) his cost is about to go up, and 2) we could probably improve production by just throwing a cheap veteran out there.

I’m with Eric – I think the right move is to sign him and shop him this offseason, maybe in a move for another 1b. I really like our staff next year if we can add another starter – almost everyone sans a returning Wolf should improve, but I’m a bit worried about the offense if it’s basically status quo minus Hudson.

by oshea2002 on Aug 21, 2009 2:39 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

The split has been around his whole career. It seems odd he would go 3+ years with a .710 OPS at home and an .896 OPS on the road based solely on luck. There’s some BABIP difference, but the gap between home and road Loney is still very wide.

by Eric Stephen on Aug 21, 2009 2:32 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

The real question is why?

If it were some sort of lighting issue or something, you’d expect all lefties to struggle. I know Depodesta used to harp that Dodger stadium allowed HR’s but killed other XBH’s, maybe that plays in, I don’t know.

by oshea2002 on Aug 21, 2009 2:41 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

That is the multi-million dollar question. It is very odd that Loney is so singularly affected at home, while Ethier, for example thrives at Dodger Stadium.

Is it just a matter getting him to hit more flyballs? I don’t know.

by Eric Stephen on Aug 21, 2009 2:43 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

looking at the hit tracker for ethier..

if he hits a flyball to Right Field, It is out of the ball park more then half the time.

by matthewmafa on Aug 21, 2009 2:44 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

At some point, it almost doesn't matter what the reason is

B/c as you pointed out we play half our games at home, and they count the same. And a home / road platoon is simply ridiculous.

by oshea2002 on Aug 21, 2009 2:48 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Looking at Loney's splits in 2009

If Loney hits the ball in the infield, he’s going to produce a whopping -73 tOPS+. But if he gets a flyball, it jumps up to a 262 tOPS+. Whomever told him to bat like Juan Pierre should be fired.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?n1=loneyja01&year=2009&t=b

by Tripon on Aug 21, 2009 2:37 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Tripon, I’m not particularly familiar with the metric you are using, but wouldn’t almost everybody in baseball have a huge variance in OPS between balls hit in the infield and balls hit in the outfield? If the ball is hit in the infield, the absolute best case scenario is a single. If it is hit in the outfield, the outcomes range from out, single, double, triple and homerun.

by mwhite06 on Aug 21, 2009 2:47 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

You're probably right.

Somebody here, (matthewmafa, I think?) Keeps on saying that Loney’s been taught to bat like JP this season, which seems so odd to me.

by Tripon on Aug 21, 2009 2:50 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

wel when i see him swing

it looks like hes slapping at the ball…. something juan pierre does

by matthewmafa on Aug 21, 2009 2:52 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

He looks to slap 2-0 pitches consistently the other way. I find this particularly odd when his power is 100% pull power.

by oshea2002 on Aug 21, 2009 2:53 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

im just wondering

how is loney a League Average First Basemen???

If you were to rank the regular First Basemen from Every team, Where would loney rank from 1 to 30th?

he would rank bottom 5 which isnt league average.. right??

by matthewmafa on Aug 21, 2009 2:46 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

See the link I posted above

according to OPS, he would be bottom five.

by mwhite06 on Aug 21, 2009 2:48 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

He's not a league average first baseman

He’s probably close to the bottom. If you somehow factor money in, I’m guessing he’s closer to middle of the pack.

by oshea2002 on Aug 21, 2009 2:49 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

the dodgers are trying to win a world series

u win by production from first basemen not by money factoring where he ranks

by matthewmafa on Aug 21, 2009 2:51 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I agree

I’m not one of the ones defending Loney by saying he’s cheap and rakes on the road. I think a .730 OPS from a first baseman is unacceptable.

by oshea2002 on Aug 21, 2009 2:52 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

It is still about balance

but the last few World Championship teams have had pretty good 1st baseman, however over the decade some average 1st baseman and one lousy first baseman have managed to play 1st base for World Champions..
Ryan Howard, Youklis, Pujols, Konerko, Oops Kevin Miller, D Lee, Oops Scott Spezio, Oops Mark Grace, Super Oops Tino Martinez(89 OPS+)

Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen

by Phil Gurnee on Aug 21, 2009 3:06 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ryan Howard was pretty bad last year in the playoffs.

by Tripon on Aug 21, 2009 3:07 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

And Loney wasn't

Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen

by Phil Gurnee on Aug 21, 2009 3:12 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Right.

Where is that Loney in Oct?

by Tripon on Aug 21, 2009 3:14 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

But I'm not sure what that has to do with the question.

Scott Spezio may have been the 2nd worse offensive 1st baseman in the World Series over the last decade but he surely hit the most important home run by a first baseman in the World Series this decade.

I don’t know what the question is.

All I know is that we are unhappy as hell with Loney’s production during the last two seasons but without James we still may be staring at a team that has never won a playoff game in the last 21 years.

Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen

by Phil Gurnee on Aug 21, 2009 3:14 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

yup

lets hope he gets his first hot streak(power included) of the season in the playoffs

by matthewmafa on Aug 21, 2009 3:16 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Odds on the Dodgers claiming Wagner?

I’d put it on 5%.

by Tripon on Aug 21, 2009 3:01 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Hopefully 0

Claiming Wagner almost entails 4 mil for this year and the buyout. It almost makes more sense to pay him the 8 mil option for next year, and we don’t need a reliever at that cost next year.

by oshea2002 on Aug 21, 2009 3:04 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Doesn't matter now. The red Sox made the claim.

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/9966794/Source:-Mets%27-Wagner-claimed-off-waivers-by-BoSox

by Tripon on Aug 21, 2009 3:06 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

casey blake has been worth 13.6 Mill this year according to Fangraphs

hes played the worth of his contract in one year almost

by matthewmafa on Aug 21, 2009 3:06 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I hate cheering for the Yankees

But I hope they hang 15 on Penny tonight

by oshea2002 on Aug 21, 2009 3:25 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

The Dodgers declinging Penny's option was one of the smartest moves in the off season.

by Tripon on Aug 21, 2009 3:26 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

even if Penny was guaranteed to pitch well this season, I wouldn’t have wanted him.

by oshea2002 on Aug 21, 2009 3:29 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Right, People say that Jeff Kent was the cancer in the Dodgers clubhouse

But I have to believe that Penny was one of the main problems as well.

by Tripon on Aug 21, 2009 3:32 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ned had a good winter.
Declined Penny
Declined Saito
Signed Wolf
Signed Manny
Signed Hudson
Signed Ausmus
Signed Belisario
Signed Blake
Signed Weaver
Signed Haeger

Loretta, Vargas, and Mota are about eh with only Mota costing real money.

Did any winter moves this year really suck? Furcal? But if not Furcal who would be playing SS? He may not be playing up to his contract but he’s still better then Renteria, Cabrera, and probably our minor league options.

Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen

by Phil Gurnee on Aug 21, 2009 3:34 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

• Clayton Kershaw almost made Dodgers history Tuesday. If he’d thrown three more pitches, he would have become the first Dodger in the pitch-count era to throw 100 pitches without making it out of the fourth inning. He did get to 97 in 3 2/3, and the only Dodger who came closer to that dubious feat in this decade was the great Carlos Perez, who fired 98 pitches in 3 2/3 against the Pirates on Sept. 5, 2000.

Oops.

by Tripon on Aug 21, 2009 3:56 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Napa police have reopened their investigation into a Raiders training camp melee earlier this month that left assistant coach Randy Hanson with a broken jaw, reportedly when he was attacked by head coach Tom Cable.
Without using names, Lt. Brian McGovern said the incident at the Napa camp at 10 a.m. on Aug. 5 was originally considered a misdemeanor but is now being investigated as a felony assault.

Read more: http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2009/08/21/BA8219C049.DTL#ixzz0OrSu5sFM

by Tripon on Aug 21, 2009 4:00 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs