Now, For The Weather Report...
by Eric Stephen on Aug 26, 2009 11:00 AM PDT
in Dodgers History & Records
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PrintToday, the Dodgers face Josh Fogg of the Rockies, who is making his first start of the season after 20 games pitched in relief. In his career against the Dodgers, he is 3-5 with a 4.34 ERA over 66.1 innings. Past Dodger batters have hit .288/.353/.500 against Fogg.
How have the Dodgers fared against other meterological names of baseball past?
- Tim Raines hit .327/.413/.417 in 118 career games against Los Angeles, but the Dodgers were able to catch him stealing more often -- 14 times -- than any other team. Raines' stolen base percentage against the Dodgers was 73.1%, a far cry from his 85.4% against everybody else.
- Sadly, Tim Raines, Jr. never faced the Dodgers in his brief career.
- David Weathers has pitched in 77 games against the Dodgers, all but four in relief, with a 4-5 record and two saves, and a 3.24 ERA.
- Ken Cloude faced the Dodgers just one time, pitching the eighth inning of a 5-0 Dodger win over the Mariners in 1999, allowing two hits in his one inning of work.
- Sonny Jackson hit .237/.277/.267 against the Dodgers from 1963-1974.
- Hideo "The Tornado" Nomo is mostly known for playing with the Dodgers, although he did start two games against them -- once with the Mets, and once with the Brewers. Nomo was 0-1 with a 2.25 ERA against the Dodgers.
There's a 30% chance of thunderstorms in Denver at game time tonight.
Now back to your regular scheduled programming.
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From Buster Olney
• Watched the Dodgers-Rockies game Tuesday night, and the Rockies are having one of those runs in which day after day, they will look back and wonder: How the heck did we pull that off? Their bullpen was taxed heavily in the 14-inning victory over the Giants on Monday, and so on Tuesday night, Huston Street — who had pitched in five of the previous six games — was not available. Well, in the top of the 10th inning, Street was the only reliever left in the Rockies’ bullpen; manager Jim Tracy had thrown all his other relievers at the Dodgers in the eighth and ninth innings in an effort to close out L.A., and was stymied by a Manny Ramirez game-tying two-out RBI in the ninth. The Rockies needed to win the game, yes, but more than that, they needed rapid resolution to save wear and tear on their bullpen.
And lo and behold, Troy Tulowitzki whacked a game-winning RBI in the bottom of the 10th. Now Street will go into Wednesday night’s game with a day of rest, and the Dodgers are falling rapidly; Colorado will pull to within a game of first place if it beats L.A. tonight. The Rockies want to make this as interesting as they can, Tulowitzki said afterward. The Dodgers don’t want to feel like they’re trying to protect their lead, Russell Martin said afterward.
Herges was the last guy in the Rockies bullpen. HERGES WAS THE LAST GUY IN THE BULLPEN.
You can’t have a proper weather report without the station news director…
or the judges would have also accepted…
2009-10 LA Kings Hockey: Where Smyt Happens!!
by DodgerBlueBalls on Aug 26, 2009 11:16 AM PDT reply actions
Most of the weather men/women according to my friend in the industry are not meteorologists (or whatever the proper term is). Most are just actors playing the role. I once spent part of a long drive home from a Laker game with my friend who told me which weather forecasters were “real” and which were “fake”. Unfortunately, I don’t remember which were which, but I remember being surprised by some that he said were real.
vr, Xei
If Christopher Nance wasn’t real, then my whole life has been a lie.
by Eric Stephen on Aug 26, 2009 11:35 AM PDT up reply actions
Christopher Nance was actually Emmanuel Lewis wearing a full body suit…
2009-10 LA Kings Hockey: Where Smyt Happens!!
by DodgerBlueBalls on Aug 26, 2009 11:38 AM PDT up reply actions
Xei,
Are you trying to tell me that Les Nessman was not an actual Newsman, but an actor instead???
Noooooooooooooooo!!!!!
How could he bring the traffic and weather together so well if it wasn’t for real???
2009-10 LA Kings Hockey: Where Smyt Happens!!
by DodgerBlueBalls on Aug 26, 2009 11:36 AM PDT up reply actions
I heard the only real meteorologist in the L.A. area
is/was Dallas Raines.
by silverwidow on Aug 26, 2009 11:39 AM PDT up reply actions
Heyman says Rockies GM O'Dowd is a FA after the season
He mentions that Sabean and Colletti are in the same boat.
McCourt has to seriously look into this.
I think that’s what he meant, to look into letting Colletti walk (there is an option in his contract for 2010).
by Eric Stephen on Aug 26, 2009 11:57 AM PDT up reply actions
I wonder if Ned would rather be the GM of the Dodgers or the Cubs?
by meercatjohn on Aug 26, 2009 12:30 PM PDT up reply actions
Probably the Cubs. That's his hometown and where he got his start.
by Michael White on Aug 26, 2009 12:32 PM PDT up reply actions
The team is winning and unless the owner and the GM don’t really get along won’t the owner just retain Colletti.
It's always darkest just before it goes pitch black.
Many are of the opinion
that the McCourt family wants Ng to be the next GM.
by Michael White on Aug 26, 2009 12:28 PM PDT up reply actions
I would support Ng as GM, but what could be done to giv Logan his due and ensure that he stays with the with the organization if Kim becomes GM? Is it mutually exclusive that if one of Ng or White becomes GM, would the other feel compelled to leave the Dodgers?
2009-10 LA Kings Hockey: Where Smyt Happens!!
by DodgerBlueBalls on Aug 26, 2009 12:34 PM PDT up reply actions
can we have Co GMs??
that way we keep em both
by matthewmafa on Aug 26, 2009 12:37 PM PDT up reply actions
If that is at all possible
and feasible I would do it in a heartbeat
I'm nobody's fool, least of all yours
by BoulderDodger on Aug 26, 2009 1:17 PM PDT up reply actions
Is it mutually exclusive that if one of Ng or White becomes GM, would the other feel compelled to leave the Dodgers?
Yes, Probably. Both have been interviewed in the past and I believe both are highly regarded within baseball. Since I assume Ng gets the job, I also assume Logan will be out…
by Michael White on Aug 26, 2009 12:41 PM PDT up reply actions
Indeed he is
and if the Rockies don’t lock up O’Dowd, it will be a bigger mistake than letting anyone go. O’Dowd should be up for exec of the year.
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Aug 26, 2009 12:24 PM PDT up reply actions
Josh Fogg
All this saying how much he sucks and we should kill him….
But look at his stats…. Oponent BAA of less then .200 in 40 innings…
fogg is the Rockies Guillerimo Mota….
they have both been suprisiing good… flukishly though
If Guillermo Mota started tonight for the Dodgers, would you like their chances?
by Eric Stephen on Aug 26, 2009 12:06 PM PDT up reply actions
no cause hes never been a starter
but fogg has been before…
right now the way our offense has been playing… jason shmidt can shut down our offense…
hopefully though tonight will be ourb reakout game..
by matthewmafa on Aug 26, 2009 12:13 PM PDT up reply actions
If Guillermo Mota started tonight for the Dodgers
Does anyone have the phone number for Jack Kevorkian, please?
2009-10 LA Kings Hockey: Where Smyt Happens!!
by DodgerBlueBalls on Aug 26, 2009 12:18 PM PDT up reply actions
Anything besides Padilla
would be an improvement. I really don’t see why VP is starting and CH isn’t taking that spot. He’s a knuckleballer, you could probably pitch him every 4 days. Until they figure him out, why not?
by stillnotah8er on Aug 26, 2009 12:59 PM PDT up reply actions
Because the high altitude would mess with the effectiveness of his knuckleball.
You wanna know how great baseball is? The greatest basketball player ever left his sport to play baseball.
and his whip in alberqurque was 1.60
compared to 1.10 in road starts…
it looks like the thin air did effect his knuckler
Well, you also have to take into consideration the basic park factors that would effect both a knuckle ball and a non knuckle ball pitcher. It could be the altitude giving up more home runs, hard hit balls etc… than the knuckler not moving. In other words you could be right, but not from that data.
vr, Xei
Flukishly is the key word there
Fogg was pitching poorly in AAA when he got called up and had a turrible season last year in Cincy. I’m pretty much hoping for a rainout after five, even if my Rox lose.
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Aug 26, 2009 12:25 PM PDT up reply actions
If Fogg shuts down the Dodgers
Eric will sing Rocky Mountain High while burning his Journey albums.
by meercatjohn on Aug 26, 2009 12:29 PM PDT up reply actions
That would be hilarious
although i’d welcome a Dodger win, with Open Arms.
I'm nobody's fool, least of all yours
by BoulderDodger on Aug 26, 2009 1:14 PM PDT up reply actions
That's funny
That’s like imagining a situation where there Rockies are down 8-1 after 5, and Tracy just saying, screw it- I’d rather not use my bullpen. We quit!
by Michael White on Aug 26, 2009 12:30 PM PDT up reply actions
I so wish this would happen
This is the most lopsided pitching matchup of the season – no amount of hallucinogens would enable me to envision a Rockies victory tonight.
Then again, as Buster Olney said: “the Rockies are having one of those runs in which day after day, they will look back and wonder: How the heck did we pull that off?”
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Aug 26, 2009 12:35 PM PDT up reply actions
We are not a big fan hyperbole, you are just setting us up for a big laugh at our expense if we do lose.
by meercatjohn on Aug 26, 2009 12:40 PM PDT up reply actions
I don't roll like that
I wouldn’t be laughing at you, I assure you.
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Aug 26, 2009 12:42 PM PDT up reply actions
I agree with PF
I’d be shocked if the Rox win tonight. I mean, I hope they find a way to pull it off, but I don’t realistically see it happening.
Gladly sharing a name with Dexter Fowler!
by ShadowPenguin on Aug 26, 2009 2:12 PM PDT up reply actions
Jason Schmidt has 2 victories this year...
so I’m definitely not discounting the idea that Fogg can beat Wolf in Colorado.
by Michael White on Aug 26, 2009 12:43 PM PDT up reply actions
56.25% in Vegas
Vegas only has the Dodgers win probability for tonight’s game at 56.25%. HFA after regressing to the mean heavily is probably worth no more than 5-6% in Colorado, so on a neutral field the Dodgers would be around a 62% favorite. That’s by no means the “most lopsided pitching matchup of the season”. He is what he is, a slightly better than replacement level starting pitcher. 56.25% win probability is not a very heavy favorite. In fact, i have it much lower than this number on my simulator. As far as winning the division, this is a huge game. As far as making the playoffs, it really isn’t.
vr, Xei
true
the SD/ATL game is more important in terms of the postseason.
by stillnotah8er on Aug 26, 2009 1:02 PM PDT up reply actions
It's pretty close
Fogg is very easily the worst starter the Rockies have used this year and Wolf is on a roll. With the bullpen fairly tired, it’s a big uphill climb. I suppose Hammel vs Santana was about as lopsided.
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Aug 26, 2009 1:02 PM PDT up reply actions
Well sure
But that hasn’t happened.
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Aug 26, 2009 1:07 PM PDT up reply actions
Hasn’t and won’t are two different things.
by Eric Stephen on Aug 26, 2009 1:15 PM PDT up reply actions
This
Also, there’s no guarantee Fogg will be the one filling the rotations spot past this start. He probably will, but I’m holding out hope we can get another glimpse of Chacin.
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Aug 26, 2009 1:28 PM PDT up reply actions
Forgive me, for I see now I have been unclear
I wasn’t intending to say this is the most lopsided matchup possible but that it is possibly the most lop-sided that has occurred to date. The only game not started by Cook, Jimenez, Hammel, Morales, Marquis and de la Rosa was against the Pirates.
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Aug 26, 2009 1:30 PM PDT up reply actions
I see your simulator has it as basically a toss up
Curious how you adjust for Fogg’s transition to a starter from a reliever. The last time he was a full time starter was 2007, and he was poor. His numbers this year as a reliever are not great, but passable. In any event, his x-FIP is 4.87 as a reliever compared to Wolf’s 4.36. You also mention the HFA you factor in, so I can see why the WE is coming close to 50/50. But the big unknown is the effectiveness of Fogg as a starter, a role he hasn’t been in this year.
by Michael White on Aug 26, 2009 1:08 PM PDT up reply actions
One size fits all
The hardest part of simulating baseball games, which I’ve been doing for the past three seasons, is to come up with a proper set of projections for each player. I am pretty happy with the way I project hitters, but there is still some refinement going on as to how I project starting pitchers. Starting pitchers have the biggest impact of any one player on the outcome of a baseball game.
Having said that, what I do with a player with a starting pitcher with a very small sample size is I regress them to slightly above replacement level. Without going into too much detail and giving away any secrets, I regress starting pitchers differently dependent upon a couple of details. For Fogg, I regress him to slightly above replacement level.
When doing this I have to have a “one size fits all” system. I must be careful not to introduce “overfitting” into my system. I have a game log database of every single game since the 2000 season and any player projection system must be able to stand up to not only current games but also backtesting to the 2002 season.
As far as Fogg maybe only going 70 pitches deep into the game, it won’t have a big effect because whoever relieves him will likely also be a slightly above replacement level pitcher. I can take into account tired bullpens by making certain pitchers unavailable for that game, or capping their pitch counts. I try not to play god and over manage though.
vr, Xei
The Rox never quit!
“It ain’t over ‘till it’s over!”
BEAT LA! BEAT LA!
(Thanks to Denver Nuggets fans)
by prettyinpurple on Aug 26, 2009 1:48 PM PDT up reply actions
No argument.
But the Rockies won’t quit.
They can’t even spell the word.
BEAT LA! BEAT LA!
(Thanks to Denver Nuggets fans)
by prettyinpurple on Aug 26, 2009 1:52 PM PDT up reply actions
I suppose Joe Sakic’s snowblower machine didn’t know when to quit, as well…
2009-10 LA Kings Hockey: Where Smyt Happens!!
by DodgerBlueBalls on Aug 26, 2009 2:18 PM PDT up reply actions
Fogg was with the Bucs...
…and was an interesting pitcher to watch. He’s sneaky (ie, no speed on his pitches), so he gets by, if you can call it that, on guile. Not that he’s much good, but he has a nice little curve. I think our guys might have some trouble with him. If he gets the ball up, look for Ether to crush it!
"It's a cookbook!"---The Twilight Zone
I think we lose tonight
so we that we can turn our lonely eyes to Juan “Suck This” Padilla to save us.
padilla is our savior
he will lead us to the playoffs and to the world series
by matthewmafa on Aug 26, 2009 12:38 PM PDT up reply actions
HAWPE
we need to get that guy.. he kills us
by matthewmafa on Aug 26, 2009 12:46 PM PDT up reply actions
Then they'll retaliate by plunking Kemp
and then Kemp will tackle Torrealba…
by Michael White on Aug 26, 2009 12:47 PM PDT up reply actions
Haha, yeah.
BEAT LA! BEAT LA!
(Thanks to Denver Nuggets fans)
by prettyinpurple on Aug 26, 2009 1:50 PM PDT up reply actions
Fans always remember the guys that kill their team
It’s funny, because I didn’t realize Hawpe killed the Dodgers and D-Backs until peaking in here and at the Pit. Loney is the one that tortures us.
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Aug 26, 2009 12:49 PM PDT up reply actions
We can only hope that yesterday was an aberration and he continues that trend today.
by meercatjohn on Aug 26, 2009 12:55 PM PDT up reply actions
I'm pretending that start doesn't exist
I can’t root against the Dodgers – but that’s exactly what I would be doing, hoping for the Rox to bat around and nip that whole idea in the bud. I’m going to pretend that game doesn’t exist and check out the box score afterwards.
by stillnotah8er on Aug 26, 2009 1:01 PM PDT up reply actions
The slump of a catcher.
Chris Iannetta of the Rockies is currently batting .221/.332/.433 in 312 PAs.
We all know how bad Russell Martin is today, Geovany Soto is smoking too much pot to care about his struggles.
When Yadier Molina is the 2nd best catcher in the NL, you have problems.
if molina batted .200 with a .250 slugging percentage
he would still be a great catcher cause he saves so many runs.. hes like a safety in fotball..
by matthewmafa on Aug 26, 2009 12:52 PM PDT up reply actions
Greinke had 15 Ks Last night
with only 11 swing and misses
saving his swing and miss pitches with 2 Strikes… what i think Billingsley should do more often instead of wasting it on a 2-1 pitch or a 1-1 pitch…
Sounds good in theory
but I don’t really know how a pitcher goes out and executes that plan. In order to have that many K’s without swings and misses, you need to have the batter foul off pitches or just look at strikes that go down the plate. In both cases, you need the batter to act a certain way.
It’s like the talk after the STL game that Kershaw should limit the foul balls surrendered. I’m not really sure what people were expecting him to do. If batters foul off pitches, then they do, how is the pitcher supposed to combat that.
by Michael White on Aug 26, 2009 12:58 PM PDT up reply actions
At this point
when in doubt, just deactivate the player for the rest of the year. The Mets can be as overly cautious as they want.
by Michael White on Aug 26, 2009 12:59 PM PDT up reply actions
Except it was the knee that knocked him out in the first place.
And Johan Santana was pitching with an injured elbow for two months.
If the Dodgers did this crap, we’d be yelling for both of them to be fired.
Buster Olney has a video blog entry about the Dodgers.
http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=4423181&categoryid=2521705
Mentions the offensive struggles, how bad Furcal, Loney, and Manny has been hitting.
Also, that the Dodgers are 19th in runs scored since the All star break.
Huh, John Beard left for Buffalo.
I always remember two things about John Beard.
- His mustache, and while it wasn’t s a beard, he wasn’t the same for me when he saved it off.
- His cameo in the 90’s Spider-Man’s cartoon. If he was just a little anchor man in a podunk city say… San Diego like Ron Burgundy was. Instead he worked for FOX, and was able to get cameo jobs in high budget shows like Spider-man was.
and the hilarity of his scenes on Arrested Development!
I'm nobody's fool, least of all yours
by BoulderDodger on Aug 26, 2009 1:25 PM PDT up reply actions
I thought you might all find this interesting
A “Rowbot” brought this up in a FanPost:
The Dodgers were 51-30 in their first 81 games.
The Rockies have gone 55-26 in their last 81 games.
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Aug 26, 2009 2:17 PM PDT reply actions
Very interesting. I was trying to come up with a match for 74 games, but the best I could find for the Dodgers was 48-26 (thrice), just behind the current 52-22 Rockies’ run.
by Eric Stephen on Aug 26, 2009 2:37 PM PDT up reply actions
lindblom yesterday
2 innings 3 hits and 2 walks 0 Ks….in AAA
Don't hate on the guy for a having an occasional subpar performance
Lindblom > everyone on the Topes except for maybe Elbert
not hating
just trying to say hes not the greatest thing since lebron
I said he's the greatest thing since LeBron?
What??
I just said he’s the Dodgers’ best minor league reliever and needs to get promoted.
DFA Repko. Send JMac to San Bernadino for a day. Both will be available when rosters expand
I’m pretty sure I just summed up silverwidow’s proposal.
by Michael White on Aug 26, 2009 3:00 PM PDT up reply actions
Bravo, Dave!
2009-10 LA Kings Hockey: Where Smyt Happens!!
by DodgerBlueBalls on Aug 26, 2009 6:35 PM PDT up reply actions
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