Death To Lefties
by Eric Stephen on Aug 27, 2009 9:51 PM PDT
in News
94 comments
Shortly after trading young first baseman Paul Konerko for closer Jeff Shaw in 1998, interim general manager Tommy Lasorda famously stated "bullpens win championships." Lasorda obviously overstated his case; after all, there are a lot of factors that go into winning a championship besides the bullpen. But, if Lasorda's axiom proves true, the Dodgers just might be hoisting a trophy come November.
The Dodgers lead the major leagues with a 3.33 bullpen ERA. Just today, four Dodger relievers shutout the Rockies over the final four innings at Coors Field to preserve a 3-2 Dodger win. ESPN's Buster Olney had this flippant response in his chat when asked about the Dodgers on Monday:
I think the Dodgers are underperforming, for sure, but they've also seen their bullpen erode and their starting pitching (which was thin to begin with) fray.
The funny part about this quote is that at the time Olney made the statement, the Dodger relievers were working on a run of 18 consecutive innings without allowing an earned run. Also, here is the performance of the Dodger bullpen, by month:
| Month | IP | ERA | FIP |
| April | 76.0 | 3.55 | 3.99 |
| May | 96.0 | 4.03 | 3.71 |
| June | 93.1 | 2.31 | 3.55 |
| July | 91.2 | 3.44 | 3.86 |
| August | 83.1 | 3.35 | 3.95 |
| Totals | 440.1 | 3.33 | 3.80 |
That doesn't seem like much erosion to me. In fact, the bullpen has been fortified over the last month, with the addition of two lefthanders: Hong-Chih Kuo and George Sherrill.
Kuo, activated from the disabled list on July 27 after three months away, has been back to the stellar form that earned him the MLB Setup Man of the Year Award in 2008. Since his activation, Kuo has a 2.19 ERA and 2.10 FIP in 12.1 innings, while striking out 19 batters. Kuo has struck out 12 of the 21 lefthanded batters he has faced, but much like last year Kuo can also get righthanders out, too:
| Kuo Since His Return | ||||
| Batters | PA | BB | K | BA/OBP/SLG |
| LHB | 21 | 4 | 12 | .118/.286/.294 |
| RHB | 27 | 2 | 7 | .200/.259/.360 |
| Totals | 48 | 6 | 19 | .167/.271/.333 |
Since the beginning of 2008, Kuo has struck out 57 of the 128 lefties he has faced, an astonishing 44.5% of hitters. He is a favorite of his teammates and the training staff, and as Ken Gurnick of MLB.com profiled a few weeks ago, Kuo is appreciative:
Kuo said he appreciates his teammates' support, as well as the tireless work of trainers in Los Angeles and Arizona who got him back on the mound.
"Without them," Kuo said, "I can't even do anything."
The feeling is mutual.
Three days after Kuo returned to the Dodgers, the Dodgers acquired fellow lefty George Sherrill from the Orioles. All the former closer has done is put up zeroes. He has appeared in 13 straight games without allowing a run, two shy of Dave Stewart's Los Angeles Dodger record, and Sherrill has a 2.84 FIP to go along with his spotless ERA. We knew Sherrill was great against lefthanded batters before he got here, but since donning Dodger blue, Sherrill has been lights out:
| Sherrill Against LHB as a Dodger |
||||
| Batters | PA | BB | K | BA/OBP/SLG |
| LHB | 20 | 0 | 6 | .105/.105/.158 |
Aside from Brad Hawpe's single today, the only lefty to reach base against Sherrill was Ryan Church of the Braves, who hit a pop fly double at Dodger Stadium on August 7. Over his career, lefties are hitting an amazing .164/.225/.265 off Sherrill.
The bullpen already has the shutdown arms of Jonathan Broxton, Ronald Belisario, and Ramon Troncoso in the back end of the bullpen. But since Kuo and Sherrill have come aboard, the bullpen has been fortified into a potent weapon, one that the Dodgers will ride into October.
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Don't you mean, "without allowing an EARNED run" ?
by Connector on Aug 27, 2009 10:04 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
“…a run of 18 consecutive innings without allowing an EARNED run”
by Connector on Aug 27, 2009 10:06 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Big Jon
Broxton came up HUGE last night, not only for the Dodgers as a team, but for his own confidence, too. I think it was one of his best performances of the year. There were times in the past month or two when he got rattled by sloppy defensive play behind him, but last night he did just that…literally…he put it behind him and concentrated on the getting the next two outs. He did in style, too, blowing the ball past the both of them.
by Connector on Aug 27, 2009 10:16 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
too bad that 3-4-5 combo on the cards is all righty
of course, CH dealt .125 with no walks to that trio…
that’s why I want him in the 3 spot if we face the cards
by stillnotah8er on Aug 27, 2009 10:17 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I know, it's a dream
and he’ll probably get 5 starts tops from joe next month…
i just think we’re wasting the kind of gift a team gets so rarely if we don’t give him a chance to get some big postseason outs. how many years has it been since the nl has seen a knuckleballer? the way to beat ken jennings is to start asking him questions in a foreign language.
by stillnotah8er on Aug 27, 2009 10:27 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I wouldn’t have a problem having him pitch in the playoffs if he was one of the best four starters. But, he’s just not. Nothing against him, or knuckleballers.
by Eric Stephen on Aug 27, 2009 10:32 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
as of today, that is totally true
just discovered that wakefield got rocked at milehigh in his two starts
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/baseball/mlb/players/4906/career_pitching_splits.html
helps explain why no CH today
by stillnotah8er on Aug 27, 2009 10:34 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Charlie Heager might be one of our best 5 starters next year.
Hell, I think he can easily fill Jeff Weaver’s role as spot starter/long relief man, just make sure Martin or his backup can catch the knuckler.
by Tripon on Aug 27, 2009 10:42 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
He certainly deserves the chance, no question.
But he needs to do a lot more this year before I’m ready to give him the ball in October.
by Eric Stephen on Aug 27, 2009 10:48 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
yeah definetly
2 starts doesnt mean nothing.. you have to do it over a full year
by matthewmafa on Aug 27, 2009 10:53 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
right, but there's the 'figured him out' factor
which means that, at a certain point, batters will get familiar with him and a few will really learn to tee off, as he reverts to the mean.
wakefield had an amazing first dozen starts – but in his first full year he was mediocre-to-bad, before readjusting and beoming the solid low-4-era guy we know now.
that’s why i don’t want to waste this advantage NOW. especially against the middle of that cards and phils lineup, which I’m not entirely comfortable with in terms of CK or CB.
by stillnotah8er on Aug 27, 2009 10:56 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
you are comfortable with a knuckler facing pujols hooliday ludwick
but not with kershaw or biillls?
by matthewmafa on Aug 27, 2009 10:57 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
as i posted above
CH went 1-8 with no walks against that trio. yes, I am. I worry about CK in the 4th inning against those guys, and worry about CB’s weak offense mojo against everyone.
by stillnotah8er on Aug 27, 2009 10:59 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I would much rather have Bills, Kershaw, Wolf, and Kuroda (if healthy) facing those guys than Haeger. You seem to be reading way too much into one game.
After 2 starts, Haeger has been effective, but not that effective. His FIP is 4.79, and his x-FIP is 4.26. The more he pitches, the closer he is to those numbers and not the 1.93 ERA he currently sports.
by Eric Stephen on Aug 27, 2009 11:06 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
true, it is a tiny sample size
I just like the dazed and confused look when otherwise great hitters hit those little baby grounders… numbers don’t have much to do with it
by stillnotah8er on Aug 27, 2009 11:21 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
it is a tiny sample size
That’s what she said!!!
2009-10 LA Kings Hockey: Where Smyt Happens!!
by DodgerBlueBalls on Aug 28, 2009 9:23 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I was speaking about next year.
But yeah, I’m be surprised if he’s on the post season roster, much less starting.
There’s enough variance on the season to allow a knuckler to be effective, but you’re suddenly relying on that thing working in every post season start. That’s probably not happening.
by Tripon on Aug 27, 2009 10:53 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
with the guys we have in our bullpen if our starter can give us between 6 and 8 solid inning the dodgers are going to be playing deep into october
by Dodgermanramon on Aug 27, 2009 10:19 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
really
5 innings is Enough with the bull pen we have… as you say today…. 1 for each inning.. plus we didnt use arguably one of our top 4 relievers in belisarioa
by matthewmafa on Aug 27, 2009 10:54 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wasn't able to see the game today, how did Ethier look against the road leftie?
by Tripon on Aug 27, 2009 10:56 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
i think someone was saying
Ethier was de la rosas Bitch or something like that
by matthewmafa on Aug 27, 2009 10:58 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
started off with 3 Ks, got a single late off Morales
by Eric Stephen on Aug 27, 2009 11:02 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Perhaps a certain somebody was right in starting JP today!
Er, assuming Kemp didn’t have to make any amazing plays.
by Tripon on Aug 27, 2009 11:04 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
error?
on barmes? they took away the single didnt they?
by matthewmafa on Aug 27, 2009 11:04 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
forgot about that…you are correct.
by Eric Stephen on Aug 27, 2009 11:06 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oh, didn't read 3 posts down
lol, sorry.
by Ivdown on Aug 28, 2009 1:54 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
He went 0-5
I believe. I don’t think he got a single.
by Ivdown on Aug 28, 2009 1:53 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Friday's Dodgers Win Probability
Once again, the simulator is in agreement with the Vegas line on the two meaningful NL West games.
Vegas
LAN 65.64%, O/U 8.8
SF 56.52%. O/U 6.5
Simulator
LAN 65.52%, O/U 9.15
SF 55.28%, O/U 6.86
Most likely score is… CIN 4-3.
vr, Xei
by Xeifrank on Aug 27, 2009 10:57 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Kind of surprising to see a Cincy 4-3 win as the most likely score, given the win%.
Were there a bunch of Dodgers 5-2, 5-3, and the like closely trailing the Cincy 4-3 outcome?
by Eric Stephen on Aug 27, 2009 11:03 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Home team almost always gets the most likely outcome due to the distribution of possible game scores. The home team typically wins a lot of one run games due to batting last. One run games are always the most likely outcome of MLB games. Here are the most likely Dodgers winning scores. Lower scoring games are also more likely than one would think due to the distribution… higher scoring games are more spread out. Good question!
1) LAN 3-2
2) LAN 4-3
3) LAN 4-2
4) LAN 5-3
5) LAN 4-1
6) LAN 3-1
7) LAN 2-1
8) LAN 5-2
9) LAN 5-1
10) LAN 6-2
vr, Xei
by Xeifrank on Aug 27, 2009 11:12 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
i find it were that cincinati scoring 4 is the most likely
the dodgers almost Never allow 4 to a team… and then couple that with cincinatti and their offense…plus Chad is pitching…. doesnt look tooo good for cincy tomorow
by matthewmafa on Aug 27, 2009 11:14 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
wierd*
fuck i need to stop typing … i am horrible at spelling!
by matthewmafa on Aug 27, 2009 11:15 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
it’s not necesarrily saying that Cincy scoring 4 runs is the most likely outcome. It’s saying the most likely final score is 4-3 CIN, despite the Dodgers being fairly heavy favorites, due to the fact that the Dodgers winning scores are more spread out than the Reds winning scores. This is pretty typical.
vr, Xei
by Xeifrank on Aug 27, 2009 11:17 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I checked
to see which Cincy totals were the most common.
Reds are most likely to score “see below” many runs vs Dodgers on friday.
1) 2
2) 3
3) 1
4) 4
5) 5
6) 0
7) 6
and I assume it just counts sequentially up after that (7, 8, 9, 10…)
vr, Xei
by Xeifrank on Aug 27, 2009 11:29 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
how does your technique differ from the pecota
monte carlo simulation?
by stillnotah8er on Aug 27, 2009 11:31 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
it told him to bet on the Rays instead of the Phillies.
by Tripon on Aug 27, 2009 11:33 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’m still in therapy, why’d you have to go and mention that! :)
150:1, so close!!!
vr, Xei
by Xeifrank on Aug 27, 2009 11:39 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
the funny thing about those horrible long-odds seasonal bets
is that the pennant has gone to the 3d or 4th lowest seed in one of the leagues for a few years running – rockies, rays, tigers… enough to drive you mad!
by stillnotah8er on Aug 27, 2009 11:42 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don’t think Pecota simulates baseball games. I guess I am not sure as to what it is you are asking. My simulator takes a set of player projections (from that day) weighted from X many days ago, with some regression technique etc…, then plugs those numbers into a simulator that plays Y number of games. All stats are park and hfa adjusted, plus lots of other stuff.
vr, Xei
by Xeifrank on Aug 27, 2009 11:37 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes, monte carlo / actual game simulator.
vr, Xei
by Xeifrank on Aug 27, 2009 11:37 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Homer Bailey is starting tomorrow for the Reds.
He’s the reason for Manny’s slump. Lets kill him.
by Tripon on Aug 27, 2009 11:04 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Also, on Troncoso.
When he got pulled today for Sherill, two months ago, he probably stays in to try to work out the jam, but with Sherill and Kuo, Torre probably made the right decision to pull him.
by Tripon on Aug 27, 2009 11:06 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
It was almost (not quite) like the other night, when GS wasn’t available. 4 of the next 5 hitters were LHB, but once Atkins was called in to PH for Stewart (Sherrill’s 5th batter), Broxton was brought in.
by Eric Stephen on Aug 27, 2009 11:07 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Broxton with a 2 inning save to win the World Series
That’s what Joe liked to do with Rivera. Shortens up the game if the plan is to use Sherrill in the 7th.
by silverwidow on Aug 27, 2009 11:10 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
We better make sure no team signs Luis Gonzales.
by Tripon on Aug 27, 2009 11:11 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Only one way to ensure that: sign him ourselves!!! :)
by Eric Stephen on Aug 27, 2009 11:21 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
You want Gonzo back on the team?
Dude sucks. :)
by Tripon on Aug 27, 2009 11:25 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
we faced these 3 pitchers coming up in the cinci series
and we bombed em all
5 innings 7 Runs for owings
5.1 innings 5 Runs for Arroyo
2.2 innings 9 runs for Homer..
by matthewmafa on Aug 27, 2009 11:33 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Matt Maloney is pitching Saturday, not Owings
by Eric Stephen on Aug 27, 2009 11:52 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
damn espn.com
never gets anything right….
by matthewmafa on Aug 28, 2009 12:01 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
if you were to rank our relievers... who would be 1 through 5?
mine would be:
1 Broxton
2 Kuo
3. Sherrill
4.Belisario
5.Troncoso
The only real arguments you can have is sheril over Kuo and Troncoso over belisario
mota and mcdonald are 6th and 7th
by matthewmafa on Aug 27, 2009 11:38 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Last year for me, and going into this year, I would have ranked Kuo ahead of Broxton. Not anymore though. My rankings are pretty much the same as yours, might swap Tron and Beli, but its pretty close between those two.
by mwhite06 on Aug 28, 2009 7:47 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
1 Broxton
2. Sherrill
3. Luo
4 Belisario
5. Troncoso
6. Mcdonald
7. Weaver
8. Mota
by Dodgermanramon on Aug 28, 2009 9:23 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
Great article
this site keeps delivering the goods!
by LA Taco on Aug 28, 2009 8:27 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Absolutely! Eric & Phil (& sometimes Brendan) have been an absolute Godsend for Dodger Fans here at SB Nation. Keep it up, fellas!
2009-10 LA Kings Hockey: Where Smyt Happens!!
by DodgerBlueBalls on Aug 28, 2009 9:30 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hey guys
There’s no need to fear! etc etc. Thanks to the magic of an SBN elf, I was able to change my handle from Dashiell and now, to avoid confusion (my own, heh), I am the same handle I use on a couple of other sites as well. Who doesn’t like to root for the underdog?
now back to shining shoes…
The commenter formerly known as "Dashiell".
by underdog on Aug 28, 2009 9:34 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Welcome back (kind of). Consistency is a good thing! That is, unless you’re Buster Olney giving opinions regarding the Dodgers Bullpen…
2009-10 LA Kings Hockey: Where Smyt Happens!!
by DodgerBlueBalls on Aug 28, 2009 9:38 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Speaking of alt names
The only consistent thing about (former Dodger fan) Buster Olney is his having the name of a little kid from the 1940s.
The commenter formerly known as "Dashiell".
by underdog on Aug 28, 2009 10:41 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Underdog still needs to say he was wrong about Ublado Jimenez!
by Tripon on Aug 28, 2009 11:17 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't even remember what I said!
But I’ll admit I was wrong anyway!
The commenter formerly known as "Dashiell".
by underdog on Aug 28, 2009 11:41 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
You mocked the Rockies announcers who argued that Jimenez was just as good or better than Kershaw as a pitching prospect.
When they went head to head in Colorado earlier in the year.
Whlie he’s probably not better than Kershaw as a prospect, he’s still damn good.
by Tripon on Aug 28, 2009 11:47 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The general principle of mocking Rockies’ announcers though, is still acceptable :)
by Eric Stephen on Aug 28, 2009 11:57 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah I think that's more
what I was going for. ;-) (I still think Kershaw has higher upside but UJ has been damned good indeed.)
I am still laughing at the Rox announcers home run call of Loney’s shot this week. “Go right! Go right!!”
The commenter formerly known as "Dashiell".
by underdog on Aug 28, 2009 3:15 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
…followed by the sad call of “not a chance” (that it would go foul).
by Eric Stephen on Aug 28, 2009 3:28 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Noobie
Hey guys, been reading your posts for a bit and decided to become a member and join the pure Dodger awesomeness of this site…I have enjoyed reading the game day threads when I am stuck in the office for day & weekend games.
And yes, Buster Olney and ESPN blow.
by IeatMidgets on Aug 28, 2009 10:43 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Buster Olney and ESPN blow.
Dodgers fan are so on top of things. Welcome!
You wanna know how great baseball is? The greatest basketball player ever left his sport to play baseball.
by Jesse Sparks on Aug 28, 2009 10:47 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Happy to have you with us!!!
2009-10 LA Kings Hockey: Where Smyt Happens!!
by DodgerBlueBalls on Aug 28, 2009 11:21 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ethier's ISO right now = .252
Kemp’s ISO = 192
by Tripon on Aug 28, 2009 11:20 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
What is a good ISO?
I figure the higher the better, but I can’t eyeball the number and get a feel for how good it is….
by mwhite06 on Aug 28, 2009 11:22 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
like batting average -..025 or so
total bases divided by hits.
http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playerid=319&position=1B_OF&page=6&type=full
by stillnotah8er on Aug 28, 2009 11:28 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
ISO is slugging percentage minus batting average.
by Eric Stephen on Aug 28, 2009 11:34 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
What’s the utility of studying a stat like ISO?
2009-10 LA Kings Hockey: Where Smyt Happens!!
by DodgerBlueBalls on Aug 28, 2009 11:39 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
It just is a way of measuring power.
by Eric Stephen on Aug 28, 2009 11:44 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
That’s what I suspected. Therefore, after reading TJ Simers article today, and if you applied it literally, you would expect Juan Pierre and Guillermo Mota to have a much higher ISO at Coors Field than Manny Ramirez?
:-)
2009-10 LA Kings Hockey: Where Smyt Happens!!
by DodgerBlueBalls on Aug 28, 2009 11:49 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
With a 400 PA minimum, Ethier is 21st in MLB in ISO
From stillnotah8er’s links, it looks like the MLB average ISO is about .150
by Eric Stephen on Aug 28, 2009 11:38 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
What about ISOPS?
This is Isolated Power + Isolated Discipline.
Basically, the premier Beane player.
by silverwidow on Aug 28, 2009 11:39 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
giants claimed trevor hoffman
for 2 reasons… they needed some bullpen help and they didnt want the rockies or dodgers to have a chance to get him.. nice job gnats
by matthewmafa on Aug 28, 2009 11:57 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Last post before taking off for Anacapa Island
From Rotowire:
Doubts surrounding Penny’s reputation and attitude have hampered Colorado’s interest in him, the Denver Post reports. The word on Penny around the league is selfish and lazy, and manager Jim Tracy is somewhat familiar with him from his days managing the Dodgers. The Rockies will likely promote someone from within the organization to fill in for the injured Aaron Cook (shoulder).
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Aug 28, 2009 12:00 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Anacapa island?
Wave to me from the boat. What are you going to do there? Tiny island with a few small hiking trails, most of the island is off limits to visitors. I’ve snorkeled there. Beautiful kelp forests.
vr, Xei
by Xeifrank on Aug 28, 2009 12:47 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
What a change
from Wednesday morning.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Aug 28, 2009 12:01 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
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