August 29th, Dodgers Simulation
by Xeifrank on Aug 29, 2009 9:51 AM PDT
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I used my simulator to simulate 25000 baseball games between the Reds and Dodgers using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups. The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.
Today's Results...
| Visitors | Home | Pitching Matchup | Favorite | Vegas Win Prob | Simulator Win Prob | Over/Under | Final Score |
| Dodgers | Reds | C.Haeger vs M.Maloney | Dodgers | 59.68% | 55.83% | 9.9 | TBD |
Simulator Fun Facts...
| Top Three Most Likely Scores | |
| 1 | CIN 4-3 |
| 2 | CIN 5-4 |
| 3 | LAN 4-3 |
|
Top 10 Most Likely Dodgers Victory Scores |
|
| 1 | 4-3 |
| 2 | 5-4 |
| 3 | 3-2 |
| 4 | 6-5 |
| 5 | 5-3 |
| 6 | 4-2 |
| 7 | 5-2 |
| 8 | 6-4 |
| 9 | 6-3 |
| 10 | 7-4 |
|
Pitching Stats |
||
| Pitcher | WHIP | FIP |
| C.Haeger | 1.36 | 4.68 |
| M.Maloney | 1.51 | 4.94 |
| Player Most Likely To | ||
| Category | Dodgers Player | Reds Player |
| Hit A HR | M.Ramirez | J.Votto |
| Hit A 3B | M.Kemp | B.Phillips |
| Hit a 2B | M.Ramirez | D.Stubbs |
| Score Runs | A.Ethier | J.Votto |
| Walk the most | A.Ethier | J.Votto |
| K the most | M.Kemp | J.Gomes |
| Highest OPS | M.Ramirez | J.Votto |
Note: Keep in mind I did this simulation before knowing the actual starting lineups, so some of the players I used may not be starting. The lineups I used are listed below
| Simulation Lineups | ||
| 1 | R.Furcal | D.Stubbs |
| 2 | M.Kemp | P.Janish |
| 3 | A.Ethier | J.Votto |
| 4 | M.Ramirez | B.Phillips |
| 5 | C.Blake | S.Rolen |
| 6 | J.Loney | W.Balentien |
| 7 | O.Hudson | J.Gomes |
| 8 | B.Ausmus | C.Miller |
| 9 | C.Haeger | M.Maloney |
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Comments
Formatting
I have no clue why everything is coming out centered. I didn’t center anything in the text editor, which I had a heck of a time with. Anyways…
vr, Xei
I like it centered
and welcome to TBLA.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Aug 29, 2009 10:26 AM PDT up reply actions
Only change in Reds lineup, at C:
Stubbs CF
Janish SS
Votto 1B
Phillips 2B
Rolen 3B
Balentien LF
Gomes RF
Tatum C
Maloney P
If you have admin priveleges and can left justify all the tables, please feel free to do so. And I can reuse that as a template going forward.
vr, Xei
Its a little screwy…if I try to align the tables to the left, they end up all bunched up together. I will play with the format later tonight and see if I can work around it.
by Eric Stephen on Aug 29, 2009 10:30 AM PDT up reply actions
so little data on CH
and he’s clearly the biggest variable. makes this kind of exercise tough.
vegas loves him, though @ -185. that’s definitely a man-crush for a kid with barely a dozen innings. they also have the o/u at 9.
Vegas opened at -148/140 and now is at -170/162, so the so called “smart” money is moving to the Dodgers side. Very tough to handicap/simulate a game with two unknowns on the mound. I regress pitchers like this heavily towards slightly above replacement level, of course Haeger a little less due to his previous starts. I hope the “smart” money is correct on this one! :)
vr, Xei
right
that -185 is the “drive a truck through it” version with a full quarter spread ;)
by stillnotah8er on Aug 29, 2009 11:19 AM PDT up reply actions
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