True Blue LA: An SB Nation Community

Navigation: Jump to content areas:


Pro Quality. Fan Perspective.
Login-facebook
New Blog: Voodoo Five for South Florida Bulls Fans!

Billingsley: 08 vs 09

The Dodgers have two outstanding young pitchers in Billingsley and Kershaw.  Even though they're now mainstays in the rotation, consider that Billingsley is 10 years younger than Kevin Brown was when he signed his $100,000,000 contract, and Kershaw is 13 years younger.  So for right now, I just want to look at Billingsley.  He's taken a bit of heat for not being as amazing as he was last year, but I want to know if that's warranted:

2008: 200.7 IP, 32 GS, 201 K, 80 BB, 2.51 K/BB, 14 HR, .248/.324/.363 against, 1.336 WHIP, 3.35 FIP, 3.14 ERA, 135 ERA+
2009: 178.7 IP, 29 GS, 159 K, 75 BB, 2.12 K/BB, 13 HR, .245/.326/.370 against, 1.304 WHIP, 3.62 FIP, 3.93 ERA, 106 ERA+

Based on the three true outcomes, it's not surprising to see a dropoff; he's got a slightly higher walk and home run rate in 2009, and a significantly lower K rate (8.0 vs 9.0 the previous season).  But it's equally strange how opponents have nearly identical batting lines against him.  Can 0.79 of ERA be explained by productive outs?  Or is it possible that Billingsley was a little bit lucky in 08 and a little bit unlucky in 09, but he's roughly the same good pitcher each year?

I do want to look at some pitch data that stuck out at Fangraphs:

Fastball
2008: 59.2% (91.5), -.06 wFB/C
2009: 51.1% (91.7), -.02 wFB/C

using his fastball significantly less means more breaking balls.  These could be more stressful on his arm (which would go nicely with the 6th inning struggles story).  This could also mean there might be a problem with some of his breaking balls.  Let's examine:

2008: 2.1% SL (85.4), 0.35 wSL/C, 18.8% CT (87.6), 1.96 wCT/C, 17.7% CB (77.8), 1.37 wCB/C, 2.4% CH (84.1), -0.96 wCH/C
2009: 4.1% SL (84.1), 3.47 wSL/C, 22.9% CT (88.9), 0.25 wCT/C, 21.5% CB (78.4), 1.57 wCB/C, 0.8% CH (85.7), -9.07 wCH/C

Billingsley improved every breaking pitch that he took a little velocity off, except for his curveball.  Given the velocity, I'm wondering if he actually abandoned his changeup and that's just the designation given to his slider when it doesn't work right.  And even if his fastball isn't his best pitch, it's probably not helpful to significantly back off of it.  Looking back at Baseball-Reference Splits for 2008 and 2009, his K/BB in 2 strike counts drops from 5.91 to 4.82 from 08 to 09.  Additionally, by counting the "after 0-1" and "after 1-0" PAs, Billingsley got first pitch strikes 55.6% of the time in 08 vs 54.3% in 09.  I'll hypothesize (but without looking at game data pitch by pitch won't say for sure) that relying less on his fastball has led more to Billingsley being slightly less dominant in 2 strike counts as well as slightly less able to come back from behind in the count.

Billingsley has been dinked around a bit more, and that seems like the biggest difference.  Despite even less playing time for Juan Pierre, Billingley has actually had more bases taken on him than previous seasons (34 thus far vs 22 all last season).  Further, he's had 11 sacrifice flies against him rather than 5 last season; while this is partly due to luck, not getting as many outs by strikeout does make a difference here; the sac flies alone account for 6 ER; Billingsley has so far this season a mere 8 more than last season.

Billingsley might need better advice about trusting his fastball to get ahead and stay ahead in counts, but otherwise, I don't see too much cause for alarm.

9 recs  |  Comment 39 comments

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Display:

It is the K rate being down the bothers me, which makes me think that his arm is tired or hurt. But I suppose his leg issues could be the cause of lower velocity and less fastballs? Nice examination though, I enjoyed it.

by Ian Capilouto on Sep 10, 2009 3:13 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Excellent, factual review, StolenMonkey!

by Eric Stephen on Sep 10, 2009 4:53 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Nice post, thanks for doing the research.

That’s a big drop (over 8%) in amount of fastballs thrown. That seems like too large of a difference to think that it’s just happening unintentionally. Maybe Chad or the pitching coaches should think about throwing more fastballs for a change.

You wanna know how great baseball is? The greatest basketball player ever left his sport to play baseball.

by Jesse S. on Sep 10, 2009 5:11 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

This analysis is clearly missing something

You forgot to factor in the look in Billz’ eyes when he stares in for the sign. ;-)

by Brendan Scolari on Sep 10, 2009 5:18 PM PDT reply actions   1 recs

Has Billingsley had too much swagger as he heads to the mound?

by TurnItDown on Sep 10, 2009 5:27 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

You have to be an ESPN Insider

to get swagger statistics. From what I understand, you have to scroll about 2/3 the way down Buster Olney’s page and hover your mouse carefully, because the link is on a blank space.

by StolenMonkey86 on Sep 10, 2009 6:25 PM PDT up reply actions   1 recs

Not Billingsley-related, but I thought this was interesting.

Since July 1:
Dodgers – 289 RS, 233 RA (.597 pythag %, 38-25 pythag record)
Rockies – 311 RS, 252 RA (.595 pythag %, 37-26 pythag record)

Actual records since July 1:
Dodgers 34-29
Rockies 39-24

Its down to 2 games, but its still not time for anyone to get their panties in a bunch. :)

by Eric Stephen on Sep 10, 2009 5:27 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Rockies still have to play SF,LA, and STL. And even though they have games against ARI, SD (6 more times), and MIL… SD has beaten COL 4 times and ARI beat COL 6 out of 15 times… Compare it to our schedule, we have the advantage.

Although I would rather win the West… A playoff spot is truly what any fan wants, we’re 6.5 games in front of SF.

by PHAT JULIO on Sep 10, 2009 7:34 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I believe 7 recommendations is a new TBLA record.

Well deserved, StolenMonkey.

by Eric Stephen on Sep 10, 2009 5:32 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Thanks

I’m glad I could contribute to the fine body of work here.

by StolenMonkey86 on Sep 10, 2009 7:53 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

aw jeeez
damn u reds!!!

by shaqfor3 on Sep 10, 2009 6:00 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

The only thing surprising about the Reds losing that game

is that someone will still pay Kip Wells to play baseball.

by StolenMonkey86 on Sep 10, 2009 7:06 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Great Work

The only thing that really concerns me is his plummeting K rate, and that latest article that acknowledges Billingsley was hurting for a while.

by kensai on Sep 10, 2009 9:53 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I'll reserve judgement

On Chad. But I really don’t see us giving up 4 runs and beating the Cards in any given game. Let’s hope his last 4 starts aren’t a trend. Ridiculously high standards, I know… but I want a ring.

by stillnotah8er on Sep 10, 2009 10:36 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

At this rate...

…they can’t give up 1 run and beat anybody. :o

by kensai on Sep 11, 2009 4:21 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Nice Work

I was actually looking at some of his stats recently to find out what’s “wrong.” And I agree that there shouldn’t be too much cause for alarm since he’s really only had one bad month.

The fastball rate did jump out at me, but check out the the following monthly trend. It looks like he’s going back to the fastball more recently, but striking out fewer.

FB%, K Rate

Mar/Apr: 51.0%, 9.1
May: 48.0%, 9.4
June: 45.7%, 8.0
July: 50.3%, 7.2
August: 64.8%, 6.1
September: 62.4%, 6.8

I think the big problem for him is that the cutter isn’t working so well this year. According to Fangraphs PitchFX data, his cutter has about an inch less horizontal movement and is an inch higher vertically than last year. From the pitch values you posted, that’s his bread and butter and it’s not working him now. Possibly because he’s keeping it up in the zone.

It’s interesting that he’s been abandoning it in favor of his fastball recently. Maybe they’ve recognized that it’s not working how he wants it.

by Sam PHL on Sep 11, 2009 5:56 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I'd be interested to see if his cutter has been doing that all year

You wouldn’t think nagging injuries would affect that as much. Also interrsting that his fastball rate was lowest when he was at his best. But it is interesting that he’s not substituting the cutter with, say, sliders.

by StolenMonkey86 on Sep 11, 2009 7:24 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions   0 recs

Billingsley

He sucks , Start Weaver , Chad has lost his mojo , and the dodgers can’t afford to give up anymore games.
THINK BLUE!!!!!!!

by SARA S on Sep 11, 2009 8:09 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

A post like this after such a well thought out and researched fanpost is frustrating. I really don’t get the appeal of trolling.

by Michael White on Sep 11, 2009 8:18 AM PDT up reply actions   1 recs

She's not a troll

so don’t lump in her with the Trolls. She just thinks Chad sucks.

Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen

by Phil Gurnee on Sep 11, 2009 10:04 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

If you’re going to post here, please don’t be stupid. Thanks.

by Eric Stephen on Sep 11, 2009 8:23 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Does that go for everyone or just SARA S?

I think you should make that a blanket statement prior to tonight’s game. :)

by KellyStephen on Sep 11, 2009 9:16 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Every team and all umpires in MLB will wear the red caps tonight. Boo.

by Eric Stephen on Sep 11, 2009 9:57 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I hate stuff like that. They think they’re being sensitive or respectful, but to me it’s just… lame.

by LA Taco on Sep 11, 2009 12:19 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I like the idea of commemoration

I don’t like doing it with the red caps. I’d like to see if done differently. Small ceremony with moment of silence, either around the national anthem or the seventh inning stretch. And/or an emblem behind home plate of every stadium tonight.

by David Young on Sep 11, 2009 4:17 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I agree with that.

Commemoration = great

Red caps = not good

by Eric Stephen on Sep 11, 2009 4:29 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

The red caps

reek of crass commercialism. I think there should be commemorations, but when you pass the Yankees store and see the red caps in the display window it feels like somebody’s trying to make a buck off post-9/11 patriotism. Couldn’t there be ceremonies and the players wear black armbands or stitched American flags or something?

by Sam PHL on Sep 11, 2009 4:54 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

If we don’t practice all-out capitalism, then the terrorists have won.

by David Young on Sep 11, 2009 6:42 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well clearly he has hit the fork in the road and this is the 3rd year in a row.

I have always been a chad fan I think he needs rest thats it, it is not like we don’t have the arms. We got six great starters and a few more on this team, I think the biggest thing taht Joe has right now is figuring who will be there in playoffs.
Bills
Clayton
wolfman
garland
Kiroada
Paddila

Paul D. Kelley

It's not about doing your job, But can you do it with a TENNIS BALL in your throat!

by so.cal.native1952 on Sep 19, 2009 10:26 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Comments For This Post Are Closed


User Tools

A place for Dodger fans to congregate without spending $15 on parking.
Start posting about the Dodgers »

Join SB Nation and dive into communities focused on all your favorite teams.

Connect_with_facebook

Cbs_fantasy_baseball_promo

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recommended FanPosts

Small
Final Dodger Prospect Countdown: The top 10
Danielson_small
Withrow Debut Recap (03/14/10)
Small
Dodger Prospect countdown: 20 - 11

Recent FanPosts

Small
Bullpen Banter Doesn't Like the Dodgers
Small
Willie Davis tribute article
Small
SB Nation Survey + Chance to donate $500 to a charity of this community's choice
Small
2009 NL West Run Differential
Small
Vin Scully Hospitalized
N16115505_31581383_8646_small
Dodgers Season Preview
Small
Dodger Season Ticket Package has some openings
Th_punkedoutmercat_small
TBLA March Madness
Th_punkedoutmercat_small
Joe Sheehan dissects the NL West

+ New FanPost All FanPosts >

True Blue LA on Twitter

2010 Dodger Payroll

Pos No Player 2010 Salary
C 55 Martin $5,050,000
1B 7 Loney $3,100,000
2B 33 DeWitt $410,000*
3B 23 Blake $6,000,000
SS 15 Furcal $8,500,000
LF 99 Manny $7,267,760
CF 27 Kemp $4,000,000
RF 16 Ethier $6,000,000

2B/3B 14 Carroll $1,350,000
2B/3B/1B 3 Belliard $825,000
C 12 Ausmus $850,000
OF 5 Johnson $800,000
SS 60 Hu $405,000*

SP 22 Kershaw $425,000*
SP 58 Billingsley $3,850,000
SP 18 Kuroda $14,100,000
SP 44 Padilla $4,025,000
SP 50 Stults $405,000*

CL 51 Broxton $4,000,000
LHP 52 Sherrill $4,500,000
LHP 56 Kuo $950,000
RHP 67 Troncoso $425,000*
RHP 54 Belisario $425,000*
RHP 37 Haeger $425,000*
RHP 68 Monasterios $460,000*

Pierre $4,000,000
Andruw $3,600,000
Schmidt $2,000,000
Wolf $2,000,000
Hudson $1,440,000
Nomar $1,250,000
Ohman $200,000
Zerpa $35,000
Hoffmann ($50,000)

Others on 40-man roster (total: 39)
RHP 47 Wade
C 9 Ellis  
OF 75 Paul
OF 17 Repko $500,000
SS 87 DeJesus**  
RHP 64 Guerra**  
RHP 74 Jansen**  
LHP 59 Leach**
RHP 73 Link**  
C 71 May**  
RHP 31 McDonald**  
RHP 49 Schlichting**  
LHP 57 Elbert**  
OF 62 Robinson**  

Totals $93,522,760
 
Red = arbitration
Asterisk (*) = estimated
** = currently in minor league camp
For more detailed information, click here.

SPONSORS

SBNation.com Recent Stories

New York Mets starting pitchers Mike Pelfrey, left, Johan Santana, center, and Oliver Perez watch as teammates take part in drills during spring training baseball Saturday, Feb. 27, 2010, in Port St. Lucie, Fla. (AP Photo/Jeff Roberson)

SB Nation's 2010 MLB Previews: New York Mets, The High Cost Of Low Expectations

Washington Nationals pitcher Stephen Strasburg throws during the second inning of  a spring training baseball game against the Detroit Tigers Tuesday, March 9, 2010 in Viera, Fla. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)

Nationals Send Stephen Strasburg To Double-A Despite Impressive Spring

Seattle Mariners pitcher Cliff Lee speaks during a baseball news conference at Safeco Field in Seattle on Friday, Jan. 22, 2010. Lee was acquired by the Mariners in a trade with the Philadelphia Phillies last December. (AP Photo/John Froschauer) link

Cliff Lee Out With Right Abdominal Strain

More from SBNation.com >


Managers

100_1427_small Phil Gurnee

Eric_press_box_1_small Eric Stephen

Editors

Bison_small David Young

2501_small Michael White