Billingsley: 08 vs 09
The Dodgers have two outstanding young pitchers in Billingsley and Kershaw. Even though they're now mainstays in the rotation, consider that Billingsley is 10 years younger than Kevin Brown was when he signed his $100,000,000 contract, and Kershaw is 13 years younger. So for right now, I just want to look at Billingsley. He's taken a bit of heat for not being as amazing as he was last year, but I want to know if that's warranted:
2008: 200.7 IP, 32 GS, 201 K, 80 BB, 2.51 K/BB, 14 HR, .248/.324/.363 against, 1.336 WHIP, 3.35 FIP, 3.14 ERA, 135 ERA+
2009: 178.7 IP, 29 GS, 159 K, 75 BB, 2.12 K/BB, 13 HR, .245/.326/.370 against, 1.304 WHIP, 3.62 FIP, 3.93 ERA, 106 ERA+
Based on the three true outcomes, it's not surprising to see a dropoff; he's got a slightly higher walk and home run rate in 2009, and a significantly lower K rate (8.0 vs 9.0 the previous season). But it's equally strange how opponents have nearly identical batting lines against him. Can 0.79 of ERA be explained by productive outs? Or is it possible that Billingsley was a little bit lucky in 08 and a little bit unlucky in 09, but he's roughly the same good pitcher each year?
I do want to look at some pitch data that stuck out at Fangraphs:
Fastball
2008: 59.2% (91.5), -.06 wFB/C
2009: 51.1% (91.7), -.02 wFB/C
using his fastball significantly less means more breaking balls. These could be more stressful on his arm (which would go nicely with the 6th inning struggles story). This could also mean there might be a problem with some of his breaking balls. Let's examine:
2008: 2.1% SL (85.4), 0.35 wSL/C, 18.8% CT (87.6), 1.96 wCT/C, 17.7% CB (77.8), 1.37 wCB/C, 2.4% CH (84.1), -0.96 wCH/C
2009: 4.1% SL (84.1), 3.47 wSL/C, 22.9% CT (88.9), 0.25 wCT/C, 21.5% CB (78.4), 1.57 wCB/C, 0.8% CH (85.7), -9.07 wCH/C
Billingsley improved every breaking pitch that he took a little velocity off, except for his curveball. Given the velocity, I'm wondering if he actually abandoned his changeup and that's just the designation given to his slider when it doesn't work right. And even if his fastball isn't his best pitch, it's probably not helpful to significantly back off of it. Looking back at Baseball-Reference Splits for 2008 and 2009, his K/BB in 2 strike counts drops from 5.91 to 4.82 from 08 to 09. Additionally, by counting the "after 0-1" and "after 1-0" PAs, Billingsley got first pitch strikes 55.6% of the time in 08 vs 54.3% in 09. I'll hypothesize (but without looking at game data pitch by pitch won't say for sure) that relying less on his fastball has led more to Billingsley being slightly less dominant in 2 strike counts as well as slightly less able to come back from behind in the count.
Billingsley has been dinked around a bit more, and that seems like the biggest difference. Despite even less playing time for Juan Pierre, Billingley has actually had more bases taken on him than previous seasons (34 thus far vs 22 all last season). Further, he's had 11 sacrifice flies against him rather than 5 last season; while this is partly due to luck, not getting as many outs by strikeout does make a difference here; the sac flies alone account for 6 ER; Billingsley has so far this season a mere 8 more than last season.
Billingsley might need better advice about trusting his fastball to get ahead and stay ahead in counts, but otherwise, I don't see too much cause for alarm.
9 recs |
39 comments
Comments
It is the K rate being down the bothers me, which makes me think that his arm is tired or hurt. But I suppose his leg issues could be the cause of lower velocity and less fastballs? Nice examination though, I enjoyed it.
by Ian Capilouto on Sep 10, 2009 3:13 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
+ ∞
2009-10 LA Kings Hockey: Where Smyt Happens!!
by DodgerBlueBalls on Sep 10, 2009 5:54 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Excellent, factual review, StolenMonkey!
by Eric Stephen on Sep 10, 2009 4:53 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Nice post, thanks for doing the research.
That’s a big drop (over 8%) in amount of fastballs thrown. That seems like too large of a difference to think that it’s just happening unintentionally. Maybe Chad or the pitching coaches should think about throwing more fastballs for a change.
You wanna know how great baseball is? The greatest basketball player ever left his sport to play baseball.
by Jesse S. on Sep 10, 2009 5:11 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
This analysis is clearly missing something
You forgot to factor in the look in Billz’ eyes when he stares in for the sign. ;-)
by Brendan Scolari on Sep 10, 2009 5:18 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
Has Billingsley had too much swagger as he heads to the mound?
by TurnItDown on Sep 10, 2009 5:27 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
You have to be an ESPN Insider
to get swagger statistics. From what I understand, you have to scroll about 2/3 the way down Buster Olney’s page and hover your mouse carefully, because the link is on a blank space.
by StolenMonkey86 on Sep 10, 2009 6:25 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Not Billingsley-related, but I thought this was interesting.
Since July 1:
Dodgers – 289 RS, 233 RA (.597 pythag %, 38-25 pythag record)
Rockies – 311 RS, 252 RA (.595 pythag %, 37-26 pythag record)
Actual records since July 1:
Dodgers 34-29
Rockies 39-24
Its down to 2 games, but its still not time for anyone to get their panties in a bunch. :)
by Eric Stephen on Sep 10, 2009 5:27 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Rockies still have to play SF,LA, and STL. And even though they have games against ARI, SD (6 more times), and MIL… SD has beaten COL 4 times and ARI beat COL 6 out of 15 times… Compare it to our schedule, we have the advantage.
Although I would rather win the West… A playoff spot is truly what any fan wants, we’re 6.5 games in front of SF.
by PHAT JULIO on Sep 10, 2009 7:34 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I believe 7 recommendations is a new TBLA record.
Well deserved, StolenMonkey.
by Eric Stephen on Sep 10, 2009 5:32 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Thanks
I’m glad I could contribute to the fine body of work here.
by StolenMonkey86 on Sep 10, 2009 7:53 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The only thing surprising about the Reds losing that game
is that someone will still pay Kip Wells to play baseball.
by StolenMonkey86 on Sep 10, 2009 7:06 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Great Work
The only thing that really concerns me is his plummeting K rate, and that latest article that acknowledges Billingsley was hurting for a while.
by kensai on Sep 10, 2009 9:53 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I'll reserve judgement
On Chad. But I really don’t see us giving up 4 runs and beating the Cards in any given game. Let’s hope his last 4 starts aren’t a trend. Ridiculously high standards, I know… but I want a ring.
by stillnotah8er on Sep 10, 2009 10:36 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
At this rate...
…they can’t give up 1 run and beat anybody. :o
by kensai on Sep 11, 2009 4:21 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nice Work
I was actually looking at some of his stats recently to find out what’s “wrong.” And I agree that there shouldn’t be too much cause for alarm since he’s really only had one bad month.
The fastball rate did jump out at me, but check out the the following monthly trend. It looks like he’s going back to the fastball more recently, but striking out fewer.
FB%, K Rate
Mar/Apr: 51.0%, 9.1
May: 48.0%, 9.4
June: 45.7%, 8.0
July: 50.3%, 7.2
August: 64.8%, 6.1
September: 62.4%, 6.8
I think the big problem for him is that the cutter isn’t working so well this year. According to Fangraphs PitchFX data, his cutter has about an inch less horizontal movement and is an inch higher vertically than last year. From the pitch values you posted, that’s his bread and butter and it’s not working him now. Possibly because he’s keeping it up in the zone.
It’s interesting that he’s been abandoning it in favor of his fastball recently. Maybe they’ve recognized that it’s not working how he wants it.
by Sam PHL on Sep 11, 2009 5:56 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I'd be interested to see if his cutter has been doing that all year
You wouldn’t think nagging injuries would affect that as much. Also interrsting that his fastball rate was lowest when he was at his best. But it is interesting that he’s not substituting the cutter with, say, sliders.
by StolenMonkey86 on Sep 11, 2009 7:24 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
Billingsley
He sucks , Start Weaver , Chad has lost his mojo , and the dodgers can’t afford to give up anymore games.
THINK BLUE!!!!!!!
by SARA S on Sep 11, 2009 8:09 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
A post like this after such a well thought out and researched fanpost is frustrating. I really don’t get the appeal of trolling.
by Michael White on Sep 11, 2009 8:18 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
She's not a troll
so don’t lump in her with the Trolls. She just thinks Chad sucks.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Sep 11, 2009 10:04 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
If you’re going to post here, please don’t be stupid. Thanks.
by Eric Stephen on Sep 11, 2009 8:23 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Does that go for everyone or just SARA S?
I think you should make that a blanket statement prior to tonight’s game. :)
by KellyStephen on Sep 11, 2009 9:16 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Every team and all umpires in MLB will wear the red caps tonight. Boo.
by Eric Stephen on Sep 11, 2009 9:57 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I hate stuff like that. They think they’re being sensitive or respectful, but to me it’s just… lame.
by LA Taco on Sep 11, 2009 12:19 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's a matter of perspective
Two friends of mine, brothers — one NYPD, one FDNY — died in the Towers that morning. Some of us appreciate the recognition and the show of respect that Major League Baseball is demonstrating. I know it’s already been 8 years, but for some of us, the wounds never heal. Baseball helped lift my spirits eight years ago at a time when a lot of us were at our worst. I’m glad MLB is doing this.
by ishXdavid on Sep 11, 2009 2:55 PM PDT up reply actions 2 recs
I like the idea of commemoration
I don’t like doing it with the red caps. I’d like to see if done differently. Small ceremony with moment of silence, either around the national anthem or the seventh inning stretch. And/or an emblem behind home plate of every stadium tonight.
by David Young on Sep 11, 2009 4:17 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree with that.
Commemoration = great
Red caps = not good
by Eric Stephen on Sep 11, 2009 4:29 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The red caps
reek of crass commercialism. I think there should be commemorations, but when you pass the Yankees store and see the red caps in the display window it feels like somebody’s trying to make a buck off post-9/11 patriotism. Couldn’t there be ceremonies and the players wear black armbands or stitched American flags or something?
by Sam PHL on Sep 11, 2009 4:54 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
If we don’t practice all-out capitalism, then the terrorists have won.
by David Young on Sep 11, 2009 6:42 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well clearly he has hit the fork in the road and this is the 3rd year in a row.
I have always been a chad fan I think he needs rest thats it, it is not like we don’t have the arms. We got six great starters and a few more on this team, I think the biggest thing taht Joe has right now is figuring who will be there in playoffs.
Bills
Clayton
wolfman
garland
Kiroada
Paddila
Paul D. Kelley
It's not about doing your job, But can you do it with a TENNIS BALL in your throat!
by so.cal.native1952 on Sep 19, 2009 10:26 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

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