Dodgers head north to face Cain and Company
by Phil Gurnee on Sep 11, 2009 9:58 AM PDT
in Dodgers Game Previews
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PrintThis is a big series not because we are playing the Giants but because the Rockies are playing the Padres and we can expect no help from the boys down south who are undermanned and will probably be overwhelmed by the hottest team in baseball.
So to keep our two game lead, the boys in blue will need to take at least 2 of 3 from the struggling Giants. The Giants still have a potent pitching staff and recently added Madison Bumgarner to the back end of the rotation. The current rotation of Lincecum/Cain/Sanchez/Zito/Bumgartner is a scary sight and will be a scary sight for years to come. Since being demoted to the bullpen and having to make a spot start which turned into a shocking no-hitter, Sanchez has been a solid force giving them four quality starting pitchers. Zito jokes abound but this year they don't have much zing because Zito is doing the job. Since the all-star game here are the splits for the rotation:
| Player | ERA | WHIP | OPS Against |
| Lincecum | 2.35 | 0.977 | 0.549 |
| Cain | 2.7 | 1.023 | 0.634 |
| Sanchez | 3.17 | 1.156 | 0.6 |
| Zito | 2.34 | 1.224 | 0.652 |
Four pitchers in the rotation, none with an ERA over 3.17 and none with an OPS against > .652 since the all-star game. They have turned every hitter into a Russell Martin. Since our team already has trouble scoring runs expect this series to be tight.
Luckily for the rest of the league the Giants can't hit at all. If you think the Dodgers are wasting some great pitching you should see what the Giants are wasting. The biggest shock is not that the Giants can't hit, but that they are not the worse scoring team in the NL, only the 3rd worse. They brought up the future in Posey but have yet to get him one single at bat in a week of play. Who knew the 2nd best hitter on the team would only be window dressing as they fight for a playoff spot. If they want to shoot themselves in the foot, who are we to argue with them.
Tonight we face Cain who has consistently been one of the best pitchers in baseball in 2009, but unlike other teams we can counter with an Andre who owns Cain like no one else in baseball with over 25 at bats against him. Andre carries a 1.238 OPS against one of the better pitchers in baseball with 17 hits in 30 at bats. Unfortunately only two of those 17 hits are for extra bases and none are home runs so while we can expect Andre to get on base, someone is going to have to drive him in. Who will step up to the plate tonight? In the past the Dodgers have had more success against Cain then any NL team other then the Phillies with a .822 OPS. Facing Cain will be Kuroda in what has been a forgettable season for him. Now would be a good time to make the same run he made last Sept but can he pitch effectively after taking that line drive off the bong? He will need to with Kershaw/Wolf sitting out this series.
The Giants need to win to keep pace with the Wild Card, they really need a sweep with the Rockies playing the Padres, we need two out of three. This is Sept baseball, don't hate on it, enjoy it. The Giants are desperate, their season swings on this series. Baseball at it's best is baseball that means something in Sept.
One, Two, Three Strikes, You're Out" - September 11
Game Notes:
ROAD WARRIORS – The Dodgers have won a season-high three straight road series for the third time. Los Angeles also won three straight road sets from May 12-27 (2-1 at Philadelphia , 2-1 at Florida , and 3-0 at Colorado ) and from July 3-12 (2-1 at San Diego , 2-1 at New York Mets, and 2-1 at Milwaukee ). The Dodgers last won four consecutive road series from August 29-September 18, 2008 (2-1 at Arizona , 2-1 at San Diego , 2-1 at Colorado , and 3-1 at Pittsburgh ).
BIG TIME – The Dodgers are 7-5 against the Giants thus far in the 18-game season series, and they need to go at least 3-3 in the remaining six games to assure a season series victory. Los Angeles hasn’t lost a season series to San Francisco since 2005, when it went 9-10 against the NL West rival. The two teams split their 18-game season set last year 9-9.
KEEPING THEM IN IT – Dodger pitchers have given up five runs or less in 29 consecutive games beginning August 10, posting a Major League-best 2.67 ERA (78 ER/263.1 IP) overall in that span. In 27 of those 29 games, Dodger pitchers have allowed four runs or less, including nine contests in a row. Los Angeles last gave up more than five runs in a game on August 9 vs. Atlanta , an 8-2 setback. Despite the sterling ERA, the Dodgers are just 16-13 in their last 29 games.
GIVE BLOOD – The Dodgers and the American Red Cross are hosting the Heroes Blood Drive today at Dodger Stadium from 3:00-9:00 p.m. All donors will receive a commemorative Dodgers item and may enter a drawing to win a chance to be honored as the Blood Donor of the Game at one of the remaining regular-season Dodgers home games. To schedule an appointment, or for additional information, please call 1-800-GIVE-LIFE, or visit GiveLife.org.
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"Why I hate the Dodgers" call in show
There’s now a queue of people waiting to talk on KNBR 680 here in San Fran about “why they hate the Dodgers.” Charming. I’d call in as a rebuttal but what’s the point.
Still, if you have time to wait: (415) 808-KNBR or gary@knbr.com.
Tell them why you think Giants anti-Dodger propaganda is tiresome and Giants fans are whacked and/or why you hate the Giants.
I’ll be at the game tonight. Wish us luck! (And safety.)
.
The commenter formerly known as "Dashiell".
Eric did a "Why I hate Giants"
thing this spring.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Sep 11, 2009 10:02 AM PDT up reply actions
To be fair, that was a bit more in jest.
by Eric Stephen on Sep 11, 2009 10:20 AM PDT up reply actions
I don’t hate the Giants. I don’t “hate” any team. Hate in the case of most Giants fans is a petty jealousy against the LA life-style, which they deem as “fake”. I went to school in the bay area, as a few others here did too, and it’s really amazing at the level of hate they have not only for our sports teams (Lakers, Dodgers, USC, UCLA…) but what they call “LA LA Land”. They think LA steals their water (we both steal from the Sierra snow pack), pollutes the air and oceans (meanwhile the SF Bay has a pretty bad pollution problem) and leads the country in crime (Oakland and SF have some pretty mean streets too).
It’s all many of them have to live for. It’s pretty sad. It would be easy to hate back, but why stoop to their level. I like both areas, but have to admit that the bay area fans are very good whiners.
vr, Xei
Pretty much
I live in SF and get tired of the LA-bashing and the “Beat LA” nonsense. The rivalry is cool and all when done in fun but it sometimes gets borderline pathological. Sometimes I feel like I might as well be wearing a swastika on my Dodger cap at the ballpark instead of “LA.” (To be fair I have plenty of friends up here who are Giants fans who take the rivalry more in friendly spirit.)
Of course the “Beat LA” mentality isn’t just pervasive here. Get tired of hearing it in other cities, too. Ah well, I love SF. I think you may be reading too much into the level of disdain (the crime stuff is pretty well acknowledged here now, I don’t think people still look at LA as much more crime-ridden), though the air quality thing is still something people get snooty about. (Of course, that was one reason I moved back here from LA, admittedly.)
Anyway, I don’t get the level of hate, but, whatever.
The commenter formerly known as "Dashiell".
SF really does hate LA
but I find in LA the only hatred is directed at the Giants, and that’s in fun. SF is just too puny and insignificant to “hate”. In general people in LA don’t hate, they celebrate!
I understand why someone would look down their nose at west LA or the valley
but, on the whole, it is just resentment by the second-tier region of the alpha region.
Most Giants fans are just Penninsula punks.
by stillnotah8er on Sep 11, 2009 12:34 PM PDT up reply actions
I’m not sure I get your point about why people would look down their nose at both West LA or the Valley. Those two areas carry quite different reputations.
by Michael White on Sep 11, 2009 12:47 PM PDT up reply actions
from the SF perspective
the new money in west la (meaning BH and everything west of it) is incredibly tacky, while the valley just seems like an endless concrete plain with the same strip mall dropped in every mile or so.
seeing as how that’s just about all of LA most folks with a superficial knowledge of it experience (along with a vague impression of a relatively poor and somewhat dangerous foreign country extending from echo park down to long beach), there you have it.
by stillnotah8er on Sep 11, 2009 1:47 PM PDT up reply actions
That sounds right. I grew up in the Valley and when I went to college (out of state) and I told people that I was from Los Angeles people always assumed I either lived in Beverly Hills or Compton—- nothing in between.
by Michael White on Sep 11, 2009 1:53 PM PDT up reply actions
LOL
I had a conversation with a Phillies fan sometime ago, saying they are better fans because Philadelphia is a blue-collar(ed) town and they appreciate more than LA does. What got me upset was that he wrongfully assumed that I was living the “L.A. Lifestyle”, or that I lived in BH. Then he says, “So what? Doesn’t sound like you live in Compton or anything…”
Serious?
well, philly and pitt fans do have a point
insofar as sports teams are about all they’ll ever have going on
by stillnotah8er on Sep 11, 2009 2:03 PM PDT up reply actions
Going to about 20 Phillies games a year...
The in-stadium crowd does not represent the working classness of the city at all. It is mostly people from solidly to upper middle class New Jersey suburbs or old money suburban Philly. And forget about it approximating the ethnic composition of the city.
Plus Rollins had it right with the “frontrunner” comment. Before they won the World Series last year, it was more common to hear E-A-G-L-E-S chants on the subway after games than any Phillies rallying.
Yeah that stereotype
from the Philly fan had very little basis in reality. Their knowledge of LA seems to come from watching Melrose Place and so on. And the new Philly stadium is pretty expensive compared to the old one. Sounds like they’re not paying attention to reality.
The commenter formerly known as "Dashiell".
Oh don't get me started on the LA stereotype
At one of the Dodgers games here this year, a guy said I didn’t look like I’m from LA. When I asked what that meant, he kind of shrugged and said I don’t look like a surfer. I think TV and movies have poisoned everyone’s view of LA. Unless the movie is “Repo Man” ;)
anywhere west of BH?
I live the palisades and its by no means tacky new money, its a lot of families that have been there for a generation or two
William Doolittle at your service, a.k.a. will do.
that's probably the LAST thing you'd want to do
“Tell them why you think Giants anti-Dodger propaganda is tiresome and Giants fans are whacked and/or why you hate the Giants.”
If you call in, that’s exactly what they’re looking for! It’s like in high school when stupid kids are making the same joke over and over again at your expense, and you say, "Come on. That joke is so old already. " That just fires them up more! (not that this ever happened to me. LOL)
The best thing we can do is just let/hope the Dodgers take care of business, and let the Giants fans to wallow in their own misery afterwards…
Made me wince when I wrote it
I once thought he had MVP potential.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Sep 11, 2009 10:05 AM PDT up reply actions
He probably just
remembered that I live in SF, so “town” is here. ;-) Er, yeah, maybe that needs a tweak.
The commenter formerly known as "Dashiell".
What a moroon
I hate titles
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Sep 11, 2009 10:42 AM PDT up reply actions
With the Nats decision to convert Christian Guzman to a 2nd baseman, the market for Hudson is getting a bit iffy now.
Hudson could have always played the Nats card in the back of his hand. Not anymore.
Cristian Guzman should never keep anyone from doing anything.
by Eric Stephen on Sep 11, 2009 10:23 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
I said before
I think that Hudson will have just as tough a winter as he did last winter. He’s a good player on the wrong side of 30 in a position that seems easy to fill. With Polanco, Lopez, and Hudson being free agents where are they going to go? Teams with money don’t need em.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Sep 11, 2009 10:48 AM PDT up reply actions
Braves' Jason Heyward is BA Minor League Player of the Year
Probably one of the best Age 19 seasons ever for a hitter.
Braves have amazing drafts
considering where they draft. They have traded off a gazillion prospects and still manage to have a great farm system.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Sep 11, 2009 10:46 AM PDT up reply actions
Prediction: Top 5 overall prospects
1. Stephen Strasburg (WAS)
2. Jason Heyward (ATL)
3. Neftali Feliz (TEX)
4. Buster Posey (SF)
5. Carlos Santana (CLE)
Do a fanpost
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Sep 11, 2009 10:49 AM PDT up reply actions
Eh, I don't know if a quick and dry prediction like this is worth a Fanpost
They’re just guesses. No real substance here.
by silverwidow on Sep 11, 2009 10:50 AM PDT up reply actions
I don’t know why more teams don’t do what the Yankee’s and Rangers did with Chamberlain and Feliz. If the power arms are not ready for the rotation then work them in middle relief with set plans on how they will be used. Both those pitchers gave huge lifts to those teams when used that way.
The Rays might have been able to salvage their year if they had moved Wade Davis into the major league bullpen. Seems like the back end of the bullpen faded big time down the stretch. Look what Morales has done for the Rockies.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Sep 11, 2009 11:01 AM PDT up reply actions
Even McDonald, not a power pitcher but still a good starting prospect, has done well in the ’pen. I agree, more teams should try that track with their young starters.
by Eric Stephen on Sep 11, 2009 11:03 AM PDT up reply actions
OK, I will admit I am shocked that J-Mac’s career minor league K/9 is 9.9. I had no idea it was that high.
by Eric Stephen on Sep 11, 2009 11:07 AM PDT up reply actions
I would think most teams would be worried about starting the clock on these players as relief pitchers. Keep them in the minors as starters, limiting their innings somewhat, while keeping them stretched out and use to starting.
There are obviously pros and cons to each side, especially if a team is in a penant race and the prospect can help out of the pen at the major league level.
vr, Xei
Thanks Eric
looks like the roster is pretty much set…
by Michael White on Sep 11, 2009 11:21 AM PDT up reply actions
I've noticed
that some our best posters are Clipper fans (other then BaronCamby).
by meercatjohn on Sep 11, 2009 11:38 AM PDT up reply actions
Amen on September baseball.
A relatively new phenomenon in my neck of the woods.
"Don't tell me about the world. Not today. It's springtime and they're knocking baseballs around fields where the grass is damp and green in the morning and the kids are trying to hit the curve ball." -Pete Hamill
you guys are lucky to have that marlins mojo
compared to the endless suffering of baseball people in a region like the PNW, Texas or DC lately
by stillnotah8er on Sep 11, 2009 12:36 PM PDT up reply actions
mwhite’s comment in the simulation thread about the big difference between Matt Cain’s ERA and FIP got me to look up on Fangraphs which starters (100IP Minimum) have the biggest difference between ERA and FIP. The link above should take you to the list. If not here is a list of the top 10 luckiest and unluckiest And where the Dodgers pitchers who qualify rank.
Top 10 Luckiest. (ERA – FIP)
1. J.A. Happ (-1.54)
2. Matt Cain (-1.39)
3. Kevin Millwood (-1.12)
4. Edwin Jackson (-1.01)
5. Randy Wells (-1.01)
6. Doug Davis (-0.96)
7. Braden Looper (-0.93)
8. Tommy Hanson (-0.93)
9. Jarrod Washburn (-0.88)
10. Wandy Rodriguez (-0.88)
-—————————————————————-
Top 10 Unluckiest
1. Ricky Nolasco (1.71)
2. Luke Hochevar (1.56)
3. Manny Parra (1.37)
4. David Huff (1.15)
5. Francisco Liriano (1.08)
6. Jose Contreras (1.07)
7. Carl Pavano (1.00)
8. Derek Holland (0.95)
9. Fausto Carmona (0.94)
10. Jason Berken (0.92)
Dodgers Pitchers (from luckiest to unluckiest ERA-wise)
1. Randy Wolf (-0.55) << Luckiest
2. Jon Garland (-0.43)
3. Clayton Kershaw (-0.30)
4. Vicente Padilla (0.03)
5. Chad Billingsley (0.31)
6. Hiroki Kuroda (0.56) << Unluckiest
by Xeifrank on Sep 11, 2009 1:21 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
yeah, really
the only reason Hiroki’s season has been “forgettable” is because of the “minor annoyance” that caused him to miss the third of the season, then the shocker in Arizona. He was pitching better and better each game until that happened….
You don't think
missing the first 3rd of the season then getting smacked in the head is not “forgettable”. Who cares what his peformance is like when he’s on the mound if he rarely is on the mound.
that's what I meant
must’’ve been a communication breakdown there- I thought the comment was that his performance has been “forgettable”- he was finally in rhythm before you-know-what. Yeah, I’m sure this season, so far, has been one he’d like to forget- FAR more so than Chad Billingsley. But maybe there’s some they’ll both want to remember just ahead…
don't forget Charlie!
the gap between his WHIP and FIP is pretty funny.
by stillnotah8er on Sep 11, 2009 1:52 PM PDT up reply actions
I thought this line from McCovey Chronicles was pretty funny:
I’m starting to think the chances aren’t so hot. The Rockies just went on a similar tear, winning nine of ten on their homestand, but that’s because they cheat. My proof is this: teams usually lose. The Rockies don’t lose. Therefore, the Rockies cheat.
I guess the season got to them. They probably saw the statistical information Paul Scott provided us in an earlier post that their chances of getting the Wild Card (and West) into their favor is going to be pretty slim.
Giant Lineup
Velez LF
Sanchez 2nd
Sandoval 1b
Molina C
Uribe 3rd
Schierholtz RF
Rowand CF
Renteria SS
Cain P
I keep hearing about how lucky Cain
is, I then I keep seeing him pitching great game after great game. I wish Chad was so lucky, I’ll take a lucky pitcher anyday over someone with a 4.00 ERA but a FIP of 2.50.
His strand rate is unsustainable
He’s second in MLB this year with an 85% LOB (Happ is first). That’s a higher strand rate than anyone in MLB since 2004. If his strand rate went to 80%, which only 5 pitchers are above, his ERA would rise by about half a point. But I agree it would be nice to have some of that luck.
I keep hearing it is unsustainable
but it is 9/11 not July 2nd. He only needs about four more starts. When he finished the season with a sub 3.00 ERA will that then be sign it was sustainable for a full season?
It would be a lucky season. Just like he has been unlucky in terms of W-L record the past two years.
by Eric Stephen on Sep 11, 2009 4:02 PM PDT up reply actions
Fair enough
But I wouldn’t expect him to be this pitcher next year or even in the next few starts. But in four starts he could certainly keep getting lucky or he might get unlucky a few times…maybe tonight.
Might have extra ticket for tonight's game
for any of you SF folks who want to join a few DTer/TrueBlue-rs. Bleacher seat, $45 (face value) Can email me at underdog8 at gmail dot com if interested. Unless you’re a crazy person, in which case, don’t. ;-)
The commenter formerly known as "Dashiell".
listening to "Mad Dog" Chris Russo, lifelong Giants fan
He says it’s pathetic that the Giant fans care more about beating LA than they do making the playoffs. He’s right. But similarly, sometimes it seems like a lot of Dodger fans are more interested in what the Giants are doing than they are in the Rockies losing their…whatever it is they have now. The Giants are not in the Dodgers’ weight class, so unless we’re playing them, I really have little interest in WHAT they’re doing. If their fans want to make noise about the Dodgers, let ‘em. It’s just a cry for attention, anyway. Right now, it’s the ROCKIES that I hate with a passion, with all that “believing in themselves” nonsense! I hate the way they copy our early season-type winning. I hate the Reds even more, for pretending that they can take 2 (or possibly even 3) games, right until the very end…only to let it go. All this, after going into Colorado on a 9-2 streak. Thanks for the false hope, guys!
For the weekend, I’ll use all my energy to root against the Panda and the AAAA hitters that make up the rest of their lineup…and of course, B®ad Penny. But beyond that, I hope that by the time they come into Dodger Stadium next week, they’ll be little more than just another spoiler team. As Dodgers have been in 1st place all season, they can NOT enter the playoffs as a Wildcard team. (Something else Mad Dog pointed out, correctly.) It’s 1st place or bust, boys…
As Dodgers have been in 1st place all season, they can NOT enter the playoffs as a Wildcard team
It seems like you are equating WC with not making the playoffs.
I want them to win the NL West more that just about anything, but in all reality getting to the playoffs is the big prize. Having the best record is still within reach, but I don’t think there will be some huge disappointment if the Dodgers are “only” the Wild Card team.
by Eric Stephen on Sep 11, 2009 3:59 PM PDT up reply actions
They do have the best pitching staff in the league
strictly going by runs allowed. Their problem is that aside from molina, garko, nate, and sandoval, they have absolutely zero offense. One more big bat or two is really all they would have needed this year. But, alas, it is too late.
by stillnotah8er on Sep 11, 2009 4:13 PM PDT up reply actions
Wait, why is he wasting ML service time? He was a callup as rosters expanded, right? Why is this costing them an option year?
by Michael White on Sep 11, 2009 3:54 PM PDT up reply actions
He wasn’t on the 40-man before the callup, was he? If that is the case, this is not an option year for him.
But he is accumulating 27 or so days of service time, and more importantly would be a huge boost to their lineup, so not playing him is a waste.
by Eric Stephen on Sep 11, 2009 4:01 PM PDT up reply actions
I agree that it is stupid not to play him. He is good, he is in the dugout, therefore he should play.
I’m just wondering if the difference of 27 days of service time is really a material event.
by Michael White on Sep 11, 2009 4:04 PM PDT up reply actions
Depends when they call him up next season
by Eric Stephen on Sep 11, 2009 4:04 PM PDT up reply actions
They basically have to wait until after June 15-20 or so to call him up to avoid Super Two status after 2012.
by Eric Stephen on Sep 11, 2009 4:06 PM PDT up reply actions
Got it
I read ML service time above but for some reason I was thinking in terms of options.
Ya, good point, having to wait until after June 15th may come back to bite them, say they are in another playoff race and there is an injury….
by Michael White on Sep 11, 2009 4:08 PM PDT up reply actions
He is one reason why bringing Ned back scares me
Molina was a FA after the 05 season and Ned made a failed effort to sign him. Imagine if he overreacts to Martin’s bad year?!
Those calling for Posey to play
need to be reminded that a much better hitter then Posey had a rude awakening when introduced to Major League pitching this year. Matt Weiters was supposed to be in the HOF by August I believe, instead he’s struggling with a Martin like OPS+ of 81.
However when it comes to futility no one can beat what D Navarro did this year. Last year Martin and Navarro were the back up all-star catchers. Today……….
http://bbref.com/pi/shareit/TgC85
Molina’s OPS+ is 83. I get wanting to start the veteran over the kid, but through tonight Eli Whiteside has started 3 of the 10 games in September. Those three starts, at least, should have gone to Posey.
by Eric Stephen on Sep 11, 2009 5:08 PM PDT up reply actions
Totally agree
the post was mostly to make fun of Weiter only because he got so much publicity. I will be very geeky happy if Carlos Santana ends up being better.
The Indians would have to call him up first. :)
by Eric Stephen on Sep 11, 2009 5:29 PM PDT up reply actions
Forgot to post this earlier. Jon Weisman of Dodger Thoughts had the lineup:
Furcal SS
Ethier RF
Ramirez LF
Kemp CF
Loney 1B
Blake 3B
Belliard 2B
Martin C
Kuroda P
I’ll be in and out most of the game tonight. Go Dodgers!
Torre on the pregame show: “Belliard’s at second base, basically because O-Dog’s numbers against Matt Cain aren’t very good. O-Dog will play tomorrow.”
by Eric Stephen on Sep 11, 2009 5:20 PM PDT up reply actions
nice lineup there
nice to see that Mighty Casey’s back in there. Though it’s gone relatively unmentioned, he’s had somewhat of a Billingsley-like year, as well. Hope that rest can help him turn it around!
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