September 11th, Dodgers Simulation
by Xeifrank on Sep 11, 2009 10:12 AM PDT
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PrintI used my simulator to simulate 25000 baseball games between the Giants and Dodgers using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups. The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.
Today's Results... (Last simulation ran at 7:00AM)
| Visitors | Home | Pitching Matchup | Favorite | Vegas Win Prob | Simulator Win Prob | Over/Under | AccuScore |
| LAN | SF | H.Kuroda vs M.Cain | SF | 56.33% | 44.74% | 7.3 / 8.21 | 49% |
Skinny: Simulator Fun Facts... A rather large descrepancy between the Vegas line and my simulator for today's game. AccuScore makes an attempt to be the voice of reason, somewhat splitting the Vegas line and my simulators win probabilities (AccuScore is closer to the sim). The Giants may very well win this game, but I don't see how they can be 56.33% favorites. That just doesn't make sense to me. I can't view how much if at all the opening line has moved, so feel free to post on here what the current line is.
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Top 10 Most Likely Scores |
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| 1 | SF 3-2 |
| 2 | SF 4-3 |
| 3 | SF 2-1 |
| 4 | LAN 3-2 |
| 5 | SF 5-4 |
| 6 | LAN 4-3 |
| 7 | LAN 4-2 |
| 8 | LAN 2-1 |
| 9 | LAN 3-1 |
| 10 | LAN 5-3 |
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Pitching Stats |
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| Pitcher | WHIP | FIP |
| H.Kuroda | 1.192 | 2.97 |
| M.Cain | 1.36 | 3.716 |
Note: Keep in mind I did this simulation before knowing the actual starting lineups, so some of the players I used may not be starting. Many of the "Players Most Likely To" stats depend on having the correct lineup. The lineups I used are listed below. Chances are you won't see a big difference in win probability from having the lineup order slightly off. Picking the correct starters is more important, especially if one of the better players is taking the day off. But you still won't see a big change in win probability if the starter and backup are interchangeable.
| Simulation Lineups | ||
| 1 | R.Furcal | E.Velez |
| 2 | M.Kemp | F.Sanchez |
| 3 | A.Ethier | P.Sandoval |
| 4 | M.Ramirez | B.Molina |
| 5 | J.Loney | R.Garko |
| 6 | R.Belliard | N.Schierholtz |
| 7 | R.Martin | A.Rowand |
| 8 | O.Hudson | E.Renteria |
| 9 | H.Kuroda | M.Cain |
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Comments
Cain’s ERA is beautiful at 2.51 while his x-FIP is mortal at 4.30. I’m sure your simulator is using more advanced metrics than ERA, so I figure that would go into play. I’m not suggesting Vegas is unaware of advanced pitching metrics, but that’s not really their main concern. Oddsmakers are looking to entice an even number of bettors on both sides, not pick winners. Cain and his shiny ERA is a well known commodity and will draw a lot of bets, while Kuroda is less known and coming off of injury anyway.
Yes, my sim is more concerned about FIP (x-FIP would be a solid alternative too) than ERA. It knows which pitchers have been lucky vs unlucky and adjusts accordingly. And you’re right, Vegas’ #1 priority is to maximize their profits. The safest way is to split the pot evenly and profit off of the juice.
Anyone care to look up what the current ML is?
Thanks!
vr, Xei
I've always wondered
if the Vegas line for LA teams has a skew because the proximity of Vegas to LA allows for more (biased) LA money to come in. If LA wasn’t so close, would a USC football point spread maybe have the Trojans giving a couple less points in order to balance the pot?
Probably not a pronounced effect on individual baseball games, but for, say, USC football point spreads, Lakers odds on reaching the finals, Rams and Raiders spreads back in the day.
I think you are spot on. There is (IMO) a Vegas “tax” on all LA teams as the majority of tourists come from the L.A area. To balance out the casual “I’m in a Vegas so I’ll throw $20 on USC” gamblers, the casino has to make it more enticing to get other gamblers to play Ohio State.
by Michael White on Sep 11, 2009 2:17 PM PDT up reply actions
I think they have to be careful in sports like baseball and the other sports where the volume of money bet on games is not great, because there are some professional gamblers out there with huge bankrolls that could injure a sports book by finding these ineffeciencies in the lines. In sports like football (both NFL and NCAA), there are large volumes of money being bet, so the huge bankrolled gamblers don’t worry the books as much. I don’t think you will see much of a “bias” on the lines for a Dodger game like you would see on an NFL team from LA, or even the Lakers, Trojans or Bruins (in football) for that matter.
vr, Xei
professional gamblers out there with huge bankrolls
You mean like guys that put money before the season starts on Tampa Bay to win the 2008 World Series?
I remember reading this Jonah Keri article a few years ago where he discussed gambling strategies. I thought this blurb was interesting.
Vegas relies heavily (even too heavily) on pitching matchups in setting odds. But inexperienced, shaky or even flat-out bad pitchers beat good ones far more often than you’d expect. I watched Shane Youman (four career starts coming into Sunday’s game) and the Pirates beat Carlos Zambrano and the Cubs; Jason Simontacchi — who before this season hadn’t pitched in the big leagues since 2004 — led the last-place Nats over the first-place Brewers; Ryan Feierabend, who came into Sunday’s start with a 9.72 ERA and 19 runs allowed in a total of four innings in two of his past three starts (sandwiched around five innings of shutout ball), kept the Mariners in the game long enough to beat Joe Blanton and his 3.09 ERA. For anyone who says that pitching is everything in baseball, I hope you caught the many apparent mismatches that went the other way over the weekend.
I find that funny, because when we discuss these simulations, almost all of the discussion is based on pitching matchups.
Results can be deceiving to the eye. A huge favorite in an MLB game would be a team with anything over a 70% win probability. You usually see maybe one of these per day on the average. Maybe more towards the end of the season when more scrubs are making starts. But when you think of it, 30% chance is still pretty high. So 3 out of 10 times you are going to see that bad pitcher, from a not so good team, beat that good pitcher on a decent team.
vr, Xei
The “(even too heavily)” is going too far. Vegas sports books are doing a pretty fine job of making a lot of money; there’s little there doing wrong, and it isn’t enough to matter to them.
True, there’s a reason why they have all those shiny new casinos. Vegas lines in baseball are getting tougher and tougher every year. Part of it due to them and part of it due to the more knowledgeable bettor. Secondly, betting at a vegas casino is a losing proposition due to the higher juices. While it’s nearly impossible to beat the Casino over a long period of time, the same is not necessarily true using other vendors. Of course this is not from betting experience, but more from having all the lines over the past 7 years and seeing the trend. I think the advance in sabermetrics has made it tougher to bet baseball.
vr, Xei
SFG -113, 105
53.05% just an hour and a half away from starting time. Opening line was -140,132.
vr, Xei
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