I used my simulator to simulate 25000 baseball games between the Pirates and Dodgers using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups. The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.
Today's Results... (Last simulation ran at 7:30AM)
|Visitors||Home||Pitching Matchup||Favorite||Vegas Win Prob||Simulator Win Prob||Over/Under||AccuScore|
|PIT||LAN||D.McCutchen vs J.Garland||LAN||70.59%||66.56%||8.4 / 9.88||72%|
Skinny: Simulator Fun Facts... The Dodgers are rather large favorites to knock off the Pirates and rookie pitcher Daniel McCutchen. Vegas splits the middle a 70.59% win probability for the Dodgers, while AccuScore puts the Dodgers chances of winning at 72%. My simulator isn't sold on Garland as much as the other two sources, but is still giving the Dodgers a 66.56% chance of winning. I would expect the 70+% win probability for perhaps a Kershaw or Wolf start, but not a Garland start. Just like the two home games the Dodgers lost as heavy favorites against the Padres, the Dodgers should win tonight's game.
Top 10 Most Likely Scores
|10||LAN 2-1, LAN 6-3|
Note: Keep in mind I did this simulation before knowing the actual starting lineups, so some of the players I used may not be starting. Many of the "Players Most Likely To" stats depend on having the correct lineup. The lineups I used are listed below. Chances are you won't see a big difference in win probability from having the lineup order slightly off. Picking the correct starters is more important, especially if one of the better players is taking the day off. But you still won't see a big change in win probability if the starter and backup are interchangeable.