Translating Minor League Performance: A Wonderful Tool

by Eric Stephen on Sep 15, 2009 8:40 AM PDT in Research Comment 15 comments

Preston Mattingly of the Class A Inland Empire 66ers hits against the High Desert Mavericks in June.

The jump from the minor leagues to the major leagues is difficult to predict, at least on an individual level. Evaluating minor league performance requires context, and the better organizations are great at it.

Dan Szymborski has provided baseball fans with a labor of love. Szymborski, who is the Transaction Oracle for Baseball Think Factory, has delved into the data, and calculated the Major League Equivalencies (MLEs) for every minor league season dating back to 1978. Using park and league factors, Szymborski was able to translate these minor league seasons into an estimate of what would have happened in the major leagues. These are extremely useful in identifying some overrated seasons, or some that have flown under the radar.

Translating MLEs is not an exact science. Kevin Johnson of Seamheads.com had as good an explanation as any of why MLEs are useful:

Of course, creating MLEs at all is a bit of a fool’s errand. We can’t really know how any player would have played in a different environment, especially one that is drastically different regarding its level of competition. Some players can adapt and adjust their playing when faced with different settings, and some have difficulty. Nevertheless, it can be a fun and enlightening exercise. For current baseball players, MLEs can also be used to build predictive models of future play results. This is really what James had in mind — a way to use past non-major league data to predict future major league performance of young players by converting that non-major league data into data that would approximate MLB level play, then use that data along with any MLB historical data on the player to give a greater sample size on which to make predictions.

Here are some notable minor league seasons in the last three decades of Dodger minor league baseball.

Mike Marshall, 1981 Albuquerque Dukes

	HR	RBI	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Actual Stats	34	137	.373	.445	.675	1.120
MLE	24	88	.278	.336	.476	.812

The 21-year old Marshall put up one of the most storied seasons in Dodgers' minor league history, and had an enormous amount of expectations heaped upon him. However, Albuquerque is a town a mile above sea level, with one of the most hitter friendly environments in baseball. Marshall had a nice career as a Dodger -- over 900 games with a 117 OPS+ -- but he is largely viewed as a disappointment. I have to think if that 1981 season was viewed in proper context, Marshall wouldn't have suffered under the weight of unrealistic expectations.

Sid Fernandez, 1983 San Antonio Dodgers

	IP	W-L	BB/9	K/9	ERA	WHIP
Actual Stats	153	13-4	5.6	12.3	2.82	1.353
MLE	148	10-7	5.7	9.3	3.59	1.453

Not bad for a 20-year old in Double A. The Dodgers thought so highly of Fernandez that they traded him with Ross Jones for Bob Bailor and Carlos Diaz.

Ramon Martinez, 1989 Albuquerque DukesAlbuquerque Dukes

	IP	W-L	BB/9	K/9	ERA	WHIP
Actual Stats	113	10-2	4.0	10.1	2.79	1.257
MLE	110	7-5	4.2	7.6	3.35	1.327

The 21-year old Martinez also had 15 starts at the major league level in 1989, with a 3.19 ERA and 1.216 WHIP, an improvement on what his minor league numbers earlier in the season suggested. Martinez would win 20 games the next season, still the last season a Dodger pitcher has won 20 games.

Paul Konerko, 1997 Albuquerque Dukes

	HR	RBI	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Actual Stats	37	127	.323	.407	.621	1.028
MLE	23	88	.273	.345	.460	.805

The 21-year old Konerko produced similar stats to the Dodgers' incumbent first baseman, Eric Karros, who hit .266/.329/.459 with 31 home runs and 104 RBI.

Ivan DeJesus, Jr., 2008 Jacksonville Suns

	R	BB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Actual Stats	91	76	.324	.419	.423	.843
MLE	80	58	.268	.348	.357	.705

That on-base percentage as a 21-year old was plenty reason to be excited about DeJesus's potential. His broken leg set back his development, but the talent is still there. He is still a big part of the Dodgers' future.

There are plenty of seasons to find. Be sure to click through to Baseball Think Factory if you want to download the Excel files with all the glorious data.

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Comments

I lost a bit of my zest for MLE’s when they told me that the 2004 season of JtD (Joel Guzman) in Jacksonville would result in the 19 year old having a plus .500 slug% in the major leagues and he then proceeded to never have a plus .500% slug% in any league ever again.

JtD was a very interesting prospect. From the time he signed the huge bonus at age 16 he intrigued me since he was a 6’5 SS, and was born on my birthday. When he didn’t really show anything during his age 17/18 years I figured he was a bust. Then at age 19 he rocked two pitching friendly leagues and everyone was talking about him. In 2005 he was supposed to be the main component of the Jacksonville Five and while he did fine for a 20 year old we were all expecting more. I’m not a scout but when I saw him play at Dodger Stadium in 2006 my heart sank. For all the talk of his athletic skills I saw none of it. No way would this man remain at SS but I felt he’d still hit enough to be a corner outfielder. Nope, not even close. By the time we traded him for Lugo I was off his bandwagon but I’m still shocked he was not able to produce any type of major league career. Probably my biggest disappointment in a Dodger prospect since Karim Garcia

by meercatjohn on Sep 15, 2009 8:55 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

In Szymborski’s translations, Guzman’s 2004 in Jacksonville translated to a .249/.286/.454 line in the majors.

by Eric Stephen on Sep 15, 2009 9:01 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Back then I used HQ's translations

and I expect many improvements have been made over the last 5 years. I have the HQ Forecaster with the numbers so I’m not making it up.

by meercatjohn on Sep 15, 2009 9:02 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I believe you. Do you remember what his OBP translation was? I think that is the key here.

by Eric Stephen on Sep 15, 2009 9:05 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm sure the OBP was awful but for a 19 year old in AA whose isn't?

by meercatjohn on Sep 15, 2009 9:16 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I loved Sid Fernandez

and was crushed when we traded him. Idiots

I remember Rudy Law flirting with .400 one year and then was jumped from A ball to AAA. Just the first of many Juan Pierre clones to play CF for the Dodgers.

by meercatjohn on Sep 15, 2009 9:01 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Hopefully DeJesus succeeds.

by Tripon on Sep 15, 2009 9:08 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

It would be DeLightful

by Eric Stephen on Sep 15, 2009 9:08 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

With an infield of DeWitt, DeJesus, DeFurcal, and DeLoney. We'd lead the leauge in De's.

by Tripon on Sep 15, 2009 9:09 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I wonder what DeJon Watson thinks of all this :)

by Eric Stephen on Sep 15, 2009 9:11 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

From Ken Rosenthal.

Dodgers’ Billingsley fading fast

The Dodgers considered but decided against skipping the next turn of right-hander Chad Billingsley, who is 0-3 with a 6.00 ERA in his last four starts. Billingsley’s delivery is an issue, and some team officials question his makeup, too.

Young players do not always progress in linear fashion. Billingsley has gone backward, as has catcher Russell Martin offensively, while center fielder Matt Kemp and right fielder Andre Ethier have taken a step forward.

Thus, Billingsley and Martin are starting to face the same questions that Upton faces with the Rays: Are they willing to work like Derek Jeter, Albert Pujols and Alex Rodriguez? Do they want it badly enough?

If Billingsley makes a mechanical adjustment, the other concerns about him might diminish. When he lands on his heel, he spins his toe toward first base while finishing his delivery. He needs to square up more toward home plate to get better finish on his pitches, one team official says.

Gag me with a spoon.

http://msn.foxsports.com/other/story/10072818/You-can-blame-Cox-for-Atlanta%27s-shortcomings

by Tripon on Sep 15, 2009 9:13 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

At least there is some substance there, as in the actual mechanical flaw in Billingsley’s delivery. The rest, of course, is fluff by Rosenfail.

by Eric Stephen on Sep 15, 2009 9:17 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

The Braves part of that article is incredibly stupid.

Rosenthal makes the claim that Bobby Cox overworked Mike Gonzalez and Rafael Soriano, then contradicts that saying their numbers are good.

Then he says Cox rode McCann and Chipper too hard in August, but without their 16-9 August they wouldn’t even sniff contention anyway.

I hate when columnists have a set agenda, and continue to plow through a story to get their point across even when it isn’t true.

by Eric Stephen on Sep 15, 2009 9:20 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Mainstream Media

Where confirmation bias happens.

by kensai on Sep 15, 2009 11:13 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I hate it when I have a point

to make and can’t find any stat’s to back me up. The Juan Pierre Work Index is 100 anything above means you work harder then Juan Pierre, anything less means you work less. But it needs more. What if a players works 110 of the JPWI and yet never improves while another players works only 80 on the JPWI but improves by 13%. Is more less? What if the mental work is more important then the physical work. Who is the most mentally tough baseball player? Adrian Gonzalez playing for a crappy team in a tough tough offensive environment. I could keep babbling but I’ll stop. I’m not very mentally tough.

by meercatjohn on Sep 15, 2009 12:23 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs