FanPost

Dodgers Simulation, September 15th

I used my simulator to simulate 25000 baseball games between the Pirates and Dodgers using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran at 11:45AM)

 

Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Over/Under AccuScore
PIT LAN Z.Duke vs R.Wolf LAN 69.79% 67.92% 8.0 / 8.77 75%

 Skinny:  Simulator Fun Facts... No surprises again, the Dodgers are heavy favorites to beat the Pirates again.  AccuScore is drinking the blue kool-aid today giving the Dodgers a whopping 75% win probability.  The Vegas ML and my simulator seem more reasonable in their outlooks, giving the Dodgers a 69.79% and 67.92% win probability respectively.

 

Top 10 Most Likely Scores

1 LAN 3-2
2 LAN 4-3
3 LAN 5-4
4 LAN 2-1
5 LAN 4-2
6 LAN 6-5
7 LAN 5-3
8 LAN 3-1
9 LAN 5-2
10 PIT 4-3

 

Pitching Stats

Pitcher WHIP FIP
Z.Duke 1.497 4.709
R.Wolf 1.194 3.46

 


Note: Keep in mind I did this simulation before knowing the actual starting lineups, so some of the players I used may not be starting.   Many of the "Players Most Likely To" stats depend on having the correct lineup.  The lineups  I used are listed below.  Chances are you won't see a big difference in win probability from having the lineup order slightly off.  Picking the correct starters is more important, especially if one of the better players is taking the day off.  But you still won't see a big change in win probability if the starter and backup are interchangeable.

Simulation Lineups
1 A.McCutchen R.Furcal
2 D.Young M.Kemp
3 G.Jones A.Ethier
4 L.Milledge M.Ramirez
5 R.Doumit C.Blake
6 B.Moss J.Loney
7 A.LaRoche R.Martin
8 R.Cedeno O.Hudson
9 Z.Duke R.Wolf

 

 

 

 



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