FanPost

Dodgers Simulation, September 16th

I used my simulator to simulate 25000 baseball games between the Pirates and Dodgers using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran at 11:15PM)

 

Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Over/Under AccuScore
PIT LAN K.Hart vs H.Kuroda LAN 72.22% 72.60% 8.8 / 9.17 78%

 Skinny:  Simulator Fun Facts... My simulator and the Vegas ML are in very good agreement on how heavy to favor the Dodgers as they go for the sweep.  UnAccuScore is once again drinking the Dodger blue kool-aid in giving the Dodgers a 78% chance of winning.  In the table of most likely scores, only two Pirates victories appear in the top 20.  Vegas seems to be back to projecting Kuroda where he should be after his great outing vs the Giants.

 

 

Top 20 Most Likely Scores

1 LAN 3-2
2 LAN 4-3
3 LAN 5-4
4 LAN 2-1
5 LAN 4-2
6 LAN 5-3
7 LAN 5-2
8 LAN 3-1
9 LAN 6-5
10 LAN 4-1
11 PIT 3-2
12 PIT 4-3
13 LAN 5-1
14 LAN 6-3
15 LAN 6-2
16 LAN 6-1
17 LAN 7-6
18 LAN 7-2
19 TBD
20 TBD

 

Pitching Stats

Pitcher WHIP FIP
K.Hart 1.682 5.206
H.Kuroda 1.144 3.183

 


Note: Keep in mind I did this simulation before knowing the actual starting lineups, so some of the players I used may not be starting.   Many of the "Players Most Likely To" stats depend on having the correct lineup.  The lineups  I used are listed below.  Chances are you won't see a big difference in win probability from having the lineup order slightly off.  Picking the correct starters is more important, especially if one of the better players is taking the day off.  But you still won't see a big change in win probability if the starter and backup are interchangeable.

Simulation Lineups
1 A.McCutchen R.Furcal
2 D.Young M.Kemp
3 G.Jones A.Ethier
4 L.Milledge M.Ramirez
5 R.Doumit C.Blake
6 B.Moss J.Loney
7 A.LaRoche R.Martin
8 R.Cedeno O.Hudson
9 K.Hart H.Kuroda
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