A good Toy Cannon morning to you all
by Phil Gurnee on Sep 17, 2009 8:34 AM PDT
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PrintThanks to Jon Weisman who gave me the heads up on this fine New country for old man with Dodgers fine story about the Toy Cannon and the 1974 Dodger team. That team was one of the best LA Dodger teams in history, and even though they did not win a World Championship they put the Dodgers back on the map in Los Angeles after floundering from 1967 - 1973.
Jon knew my appreciation for the Toy Cannon because that was my handle on Dodger Thoughts and my handle here at True Blue when I started writing 2 1/2 years ago. I've written about Jimmy Wynn several times here, and below are the links to those columns. He truly was one of a kind and we were lucky to see him at his best in 1974.
Toy Cannon turns 66 - True Blue LA is brief tribute to his 66th birthday but within the story are several excellent links if you know want to know more about this brilliant ballplayer.
A Dynamic Diminutive Duo - True Blue LA tries to show you just how unique Jimmy Wynn was. Along with his more famous teammate Joe Morgan they taught the baseball world in the 60's that even those who are 5'8 can have a huge impact on the offensive side of the game of baseball.
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Really nice article by Crowe in the Times. I went back and read your two articles as well; love the Joe Morgan baseball card.
Is Jimmy Winn the most underrated player in Dodger history?
No
he didn’t play long enough. I think Reggie Smith is.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
Smith is so underrated, I didn’t even think of him! :)
Of course he is a better choice.
by Eric Stephen on Sep 17, 2009 9:04 AM PDT up reply actions
Reggie Smith is so underrated, Don Sutton and Steve Garvey fought over it. ;)
by David Young on Sep 17, 2009 11:33 AM PDT up reply actions 2 recs
LA Dodger Centerfielders to score 100 runs
Brett Butler (1991): 112 runs
Jimmy Wynn (1974): 104 runs
Willie Davis (1962): 103 runs
http://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/shareit/t6sEu
Matt Kemp has 90 runs scored with 15 games to play.
Amazing that 3Dog
didn’t score more then 100 once, and that he did it back when he a puppy. That 62 team was quite a team, to bad about Sandy getting hurt, or we probably would have had 3 World Championships in 4 years.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
I looked back at some neutralized stats thanks to Baseball-Reference (and I may do a post about this), but here are Davis’ top seasons in runs scored in a neutralized environment:
120, 109, 108, 101, 97, 95, 90
by Eric Stephen on Sep 17, 2009 9:33 AM PDT up reply actions
What were the Toy Cannons
home run totals in the Astrodome if neutralized?
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
1963: 5
1964: 6
1965: 26
1966: 19
1967: 42
1968: 31
1969: 39
1970: 28
1971: 8
1972: 29
1973: 22
255 total HR, compared to the actual 223.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/wynnji01-bat.shtml#batting_neutral
by Eric Stephen on Sep 17, 2009 9:45 AM PDT up reply actions
Thanks
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Sep 17, 2009 10:42 AM PDT up reply actions
anyone else having problems accessing the ticketmaster page for the tickets?
I’m getting an error message when I click on the links
Nothing to do with the topic
But I just had a question of FIP. There are two websites that I use for minor league stats, and they both have the FIP stat, but they give very different numbers for the same players. For example, on firstinning.com, they have Ethan Martin’s 2009 FIP at 3.83. However, on minorleaguesplits.com, his FIP is 3.45. Same for Josh Lindblom…his FIP at AAA per firstinnings.com is 3.79, and at minorleaguesplits.com it is 3.26. Which is the right answer, and what site do the people on here use when quoting a player’s FIP?
by Brandon Lennox on Sep 17, 2009 10:21 AM PDT reply actions
Good question
I’ll try to find out from the guys who run the site but I won’t have an answer today, they typically take a few days before we hear a response.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Sep 17, 2009 10:45 AM PDT up reply actions
Sounds like they are either using different formulas and or park adjusting.
If you have the raw stats, we/you can calculate the FIP ourselves.
FIP = ((13HR + 3BB – 2SO) / IP) + 3.2
Out of curiousity, run the numbers through this formula and see which of the two sites is closer.
vr, Xei
Fangraphs has 3.45 for E.Martin by the way.
Let me run the #s myself.
HR: 4
BB: 61
SO: 120 (wow btw)
IP: 100
((13×4 + 61×3 – 120×2) / 100) + 3.2
= 3.45
The other one may be park adjusted or wrong. Have to write the author of the site to see how they came up with the other number.
vr, Xei
And I calculate a FIP of 3.28 for Lindblom at AAA. So it sounds like the minorleaguesplits site is correct. I am not sure what the other site is doing to come up with the numbers they are getting. Maybe a park factor or MLE adjustment???
vr, Xei
Using that formula for Martin, I get a FIP of 3.15…however I do get a 3.28 for Lindblom. Did I do something wrong? Also, doesn’t the park factor change per pitcher? If so, how can the formula be the same accross the board for all pitchers?
by Brandon Lennox on Sep 17, 2009 2:03 PM PDT up reply actions
you are getting 3.15 because it should be -0.05 + 3.2 and you are doing +0.05 + 3.2. The left side of the equation before adding the constant is a negative number. That should give you the correct answer.
The FIP formula is the same for all pitchers. The park factor depends on what your home stadium is. For example all the Dodgers AA pitchers would have the same park factor and all the Dodgers AAA would have the same park factor. I am not saying the descrepancies between the two sites is caused by a park factor that is being applied, it’s just an educated guess.
In summary, one FIP equation for all pitchers. A PF adjustment for each team/park.
vr, Xei
After further review
I am getting 3.15 also. I’m at a loss. Let me research it a little bit.
vr, Xei
Ok, I Got It
They are using (BB + HBP) and E.Martin has 10 HBP.
It comes out to 3.45 now if you add the walks and HBP together and multiply it by three like in the equation above. I didn’t rerun Lindblom, but am satisfied after getting a perfect match on E.Martin.
vr, Xei
Thanks
That clears up the equation, and it looks like the Fangraphs numbers are matching that equation exactly. Still not sure about those other sites, though, since for another example, Nathan Eovaldi at Fangraphs is 3.51, First inning is 3.84, and minorleaguesplits is 3.60. I guess for now I’ll just use the equation.
However, I am still a little confused on what the 3.2 is at the end of the equation. So you are saying that is the park factor? If so, then how would it be the same for every pitcher? Maybe what you are saying is that park factor does not factor into this equation, which would make sense if you really can use the exact same equation (even the 3.2) for every pitcher
by Brandon Lennox on Sep 17, 2009 2:22 PM PDT up reply actions
3.2 is NOT a park factor
it’s a constant that converts FIP to match ERA at a 1:1 level. The constant of 3.2 can change from year to year depending on the run scoring environment of that era/year. 3.2 is what pretty much everyone uses. Park factors ARE NOT included in the FIP equation.
vr, Xei
Perfect, thanks
that’s exactly what I needed to know. At the end of the day, it sounds like fangraphs has it right, as it makes sense to count HBP as walks, just like in OBP
by Brandon Lennox on Sep 17, 2009 2:31 PM PDT up reply actions
Viva la Fangraphs
The “best” baseball site there is. And TBLA is definitely climbing up the ranks. I think #11 in the latest BCS poll. :)
vr, Xei
Lindblom’s doesn’t come out as smooth. Lindblom has three HBP and when you treat those as walks (factor of 3) his FIP is higher than minorleaguesplits. If you treat his HBP as a factor of 1 then it matches. But it matches Fangraphs perfectly at 3.51. I believe HBP need to be treated as a walk in order to get a match. I think your Lindblom numbers above may need to be double checked, as they might be combining his AA and AAA?
vr, Xei
At least for Lindblom
You might just be reading Lindbolm’s stats for Triple-A. The default stats for him is set to his triple-A page, but he was only promoted to Triple-A around June, I think.
You can be assured that we are going to the World Series
I forgot to get the postseason package and they already gave my tickets away.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
Wow, bummer.
My 11-game Tuesday night package is not an “MVP Patron”, so I’m in the general public pool.
The NLDS pre-registration has closed, but the NLCS pregistration is still open.
by David Young on Sep 17, 2009 11:32 AM PDT up reply actions
Belliard – 319 .347 .596 .943 in 49 at bats, 7 XBH
Marlan Anderson 375 .431 .813 1.243 7 jacks in only 79 at bats. The best part of the Magic Marlon time was that those 7 jacks in 79 abats were more then he hit in 6 of his 11 complete seasons. One of the more unbelievable runs from a guy with a career .391 Slug% in baseball history.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
The LATimes article really sent me back. 1974 was one of my favorite Dodger years. I remember specifically the grand slam against the Reds. I was in my room listening on the radio and when he hit it the peach fuzz on the back of my neck stood up. I said to my dad or brother, Garvey’s going to hit one too. And sure as shit he did (as far as I can remember; Retrosheet seems to confirm this for 9/15/1974).
The throw by Ferguson to cut off Winn in the WS is still one of my all time favorite Dodger moments.
Straight out balls play by Joe
Back then Buckner could fly, 74 was filled with him making diving catches in LF, hard to believe he was such an athletic player when you saw the shell he was later while playing with the Red Sox.
74 may have been my favorite Dodger year what with the kids blossoming, Wynn, and watching Marshall pitch just about every game. Andy, Don. Just a great team for a 15 year old to watch.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
Billy Buck was my favorite Dodger until Garvey blew up in 74. Prior to Buckner? Would you believe Billy Grabarkewitz? Sheesh what was I thinking?
by KellyStephen on Sep 17, 2009 2:20 PM PDT up reply actions
Easy to be a fan by Gabby
http://www.truebluela.com/2008/1/22/12504/8236
Until injuries I hit I think he would have been a good player not a flash in the pan. He will always bee one of my favorites because he hit a home one to support a 1 – 0 shutout by Don Sutton in my first ever game at Dodger Stadium.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/LAN/LAN197006160.shtml
Funny, but for some stupid reason i remember that he led the Dodgers in HR in 1970 with 17! (I just looked it up to confirm the #.) Man, that very early 70’s team was crap but they started really coming on in 73. New book by Posnanski about the ‘75 Reds as one of the greatest teams ever (I don’t disagree), but i wrote a comment on his blog to remind him that the Dodgers, and not his mighty Reds, were in the WS 3 times between ‘74-’78. (But I also told him that the Reds were a team I respected during that time; most likely due to the respect that Alston/Tommy and Sparky had for each other.)
by KellyStephen on Sep 17, 2009 3:34 PM PDT up reply actions
The Red/Dodger rivalry
during the 70’s was the best rivalry in the NL. Both teams were loaded and it just depended on how many injuries the other team had. Good thing many of the Red young pitching studs would flame out. Gary Nola/Wayne Simpson are two I remember.
Do you remember the opening series in 75 when we were swept by the Reds in three games losing each game by one run, and then they visited DS and we swept them winning all four games with the last game going extra innings? Injuries killed us in 75 not that we could have matched them that year. Hell we won 88 games and finished 20 games back. Still I bet no one else beat them three games in a row in 75.
Don Gullett only managed 42 starts in ’75 – ’76 for the Reds before leaving for free agency, Yankee dollars, and only 30 more MLB starts.
Definitely a great rivalry. I also couldn’t hate the Reds. As a little guy, I just had to like Joe Morgan, the player. You had to be impressed with Johnny Bench.
Amazingly, the ’75 Reds were also swept in four games by the Phillies in mid-May.
Reds were my favorite team in the 70s and all the way up until the strike shortened season where they split the season in halves (talk about dumb and unfair decisions). I was a third generation Red fan and during those years I hated the Dodgers with a passion. I root for the Dodgers now as much as I rooted against them back then. It made going to a Dodger game back then very difficult. During the Dodger pianist led charge cheer, i asked my dad what word was the opposite of charge and yelled that each time. I was also a Minnesota Vikings fan back then too… go figure!
vr, Xei
Easy to be a fan of the Reds
but when Joe Kapp hurdled Richie Petitbon before you were born my hatred of the Vikings is what kept this 11 year old alive during the winter of 69.
I was freshly nine years old at that time, and that’s when I started hating the Vikings too, with the Cowboys soon to follow. Joe Kapp -ugh.
Joe Kapp, thrower of what my undles used to call “the helium ball”.
by KellyStephen on Sep 17, 2009 5:02 PM PDT up reply actions
You had talking undies?
There were some bad throwers at QB in those days. Billy Kilmer and Sonny Jurgenson come to mind. Plus Joe Kapp was a dull name, totally boring except for the “K”. Now, Roman Gabriel, that was a name for a quarterback!
Kapp and Kilmer threw some
wobbly ass balls but they got there. I remember Sonny being a strong armed quarterback.
So what was it, “Stall!”; “Wait!”; “Hold on!”????
by KellyStephen on Sep 17, 2009 5:03 PM PDT up reply actions
What Napoleon said in Moscow
Retreat!
Well, he probably said something more like “Reculer!”, with all the air up his sinuses, but you get the point.
DODGERS-ROSTER
TELL ME WHAT DO THE DODGERS NEED TO MAKE THEM BETTER?————-BESIDES THE DH!— THE NL HAS TO GET THE DH NOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!- TO KEEP UP WITH THE AL!!!!!!!!!!——-NOW BACK TO THE ROSTER—-MARTIN-LONEY-HUDSON-FURCAL-BLAKE-MANNY KEMP-EITHIER-PIERRE—————CASTRO—THOME-MENKWITZ-ARASMUS————————-BILLINSGLY—KERSHAW-GARLAND-PADILLA-WOLF-KARUDA
SHERRELL-BROCKSTON-WEAVER-MOTA-MCDONALD-KUO—-PLAY-OFF ROSTER
CAN THEY REALLY BEAT THE PHILLIES AND CARDS? AND IF THEY DO HOW ABOUT THE AL?
by spc7@verizon.net on Sep 18, 2009 6:30 AM PDT reply actions
DODGERS
I LOVE THE DODGERS AND THEY HAVE DONE GREAT IN THE LAST FEW YEARS WITHE THIER ROSTER—-EXCEPT FOR JONES AND SCHIMDT-VERY GOOD DEALS HAVE BEEN MADE AND THE ROOKIES HAVE BEEN GREAT-BUT I THINK THEY STILL NEED MORE—THEY CAN AND MIGHT STILL WIN IT ALL THIS YEAR-BUT I STILL THINK THEY NEED MORE
by spc7@verizon.net on Sep 18, 2009 6:33 AM PDT reply actions
Santa Anas coming next week
OT – it’s suppose to be in the 100s most of next week if you are any place other than the beach. Santa Ana winds are suppose to kick up monday. Enjoy the nice weather this weekend while you can. Next week will likely be pretty miserable unless you work for the Heat Miser.
vr, Xei
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