Dodgers Simulation, September 18th
I used my simulator to simulate 25000 baseball games between the Giants and Dodgers using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups. The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.
Today's Results... (Last simulation ran at 10:00PM)
| Visitors | Home | Pitching Matchup | Favorite | Vegas Win Prob | Simulator Win Prob | AccuScore |
| SF | LAN | J.Sanchez vs V.Padilla | LAN | 58.33% | 58.11% | 61% |
Skinny: Simulator Fun Facts... Pretty good agreement on the win probability for the Dodgers across the board for tonight's game. A slight advantage to the Giants starting pitching wise which is made up for in the home field advantage, then more than made up for with the Dodgers hitting prowess (and or lack of hitting prowess from the NoCals).
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Top 20 Most Likely Scores |
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| 1 | LAN 3-2 |
| 2 | LAN 4-3 |
| 3 | LAN 5-4 |
| 4 | LAN 2-1 |
| 5 | SF 4-3 |
| 6 | LAN 4-2 |
| 7 | SF 3-2 |
| 8 | LAN 6-5 |
| 9 | SF 4-2 |
| 10 | LAN 5-3 |
| 11 | SF 5-4 |
| 12 | LAN 3-1 |
| 13 | LAN 5-2 |
| 14 | SF 2-1 |
| 15 | SF 3-1 |
| 16 | SF 5-3 |
| 17 | LAN 6-4 |
| 18 | LAN 4-1 |
| 19 | SF 5-2 |
| 20 | LAN 7-6 |
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Pitching Stats |
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| Pitcher | WHIP | FIP |
| J.Sanchez | 1.568 | 4.259 |
| V.Padilla | 1.280 | 3.706 |
Note: Keep in mind I did this simulation before knowing the actual starting lineups, so some of the players I used may not be starting. Many of the "Players Most Likely To" stats depend on having the correct lineup. The lineups I used are listed below. Chances are you won't see a big difference in win probability from having the lineup order slightly off. Picking the correct starters is more important, especially if one of the better players is taking the day off. But you still won't see a big change in win probability if the starter and backup are interchangeable.
| Simulation Lineups | ||
| 1 | E.Velez | R.Furcal |
| 2 | F.Sanchez | M.Kemp |
| 3 | P.Sandoval | A.Ethier |
| 4 | B.Molina | M.Ramirez |
| 5 | R.Garko | C.Blake |
| 6 | N.Schierholtz | J.Loney |
| 7 | A.Rowand | R.Martin |
| 8 | E.Renteria | O.Hudson |
| 9 | J.Sanchez | V.Padilla |
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Comments
Padilla has lower WHIP and FIP
how is that an advantage for Giants? Is it just his Dodger stats listed above and therefore the always fun SSS?
Yes, that is just his Dodger stats. 2009 stats for Padilla (including Texas) has a FIP of 4.53.
by Michael White on Sep 18, 2009 10:59 AM PDT up reply actions
I think ERA+ has more meaning after the year has been completed….
by Michael White on Sep 18, 2009 3:01 PM PDT up reply actions
Over the few years a lot a new stats have come into vogue.
If the goal is to better understand the game than, less accurate stats are going to become less popular. FIP and tRA and wOBA are much more useful or evaluation purposes.
SF 8-4
was the 63rd most likely score in case you were wondering. Tonight’s final score occurred 131 times over 25K sims. For reference the #1 most likely score occurred 986 times. The SF 8-4 score was sandwiched between scores of LAN 8-6 and SF 8-3. Better luck tomorrow.
vr, Xei

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