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Dodgers Simulation, September 18th

I used my simulator to simulate 25000 baseball games between the Giants and Dodgers using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran at 10:00PM)

 

Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob AccuScore
SF LAN J.Sanchez vs V.Padilla LAN 58.33% 58.11% 61%

 Skinny:  Simulator Fun Facts... Pretty good agreement on the win probability for the Dodgers across the board for tonight's game.  A slight advantage to the Giants starting pitching wise which is made up for in the home field advantage, then more than made up for with the Dodgers hitting prowess (and or lack of hitting prowess from the NoCals).

 

 

Top 20 Most Likely Scores

1 LAN 3-2
2 LAN 4-3
3 LAN 5-4
4 LAN 2-1
5 SF 4-3
6 LAN 4-2
7 SF 3-2
8 LAN 6-5
9 SF 4-2
10 LAN 5-3
11 SF 5-4
12 LAN 3-1
13 LAN 5-2
14 SF 2-1
15 SF 3-1
16 SF 5-3
17 LAN 6-4
18 LAN 4-1
19 SF 5-2
20 LAN 7-6

 

Pitching Stats

Pitcher WHIP FIP
J.Sanchez 1.568 4.259
V.Padilla 1.280 3.706

 


Note: Keep in mind I did this simulation before knowing the actual starting lineups, so some of the players I used may not be starting.   Many of the "Players Most Likely To" stats depend on having the correct lineup.  The lineups  I used are listed below.  Chances are you won't see a big difference in win probability from having the lineup order slightly off.  Picking the correct starters is more important, especially if one of the better players is taking the day off.  But you still won't see a big change in win probability if the starter and backup are interchangeable.

Simulation Lineups
1 E.Velez R.Furcal
2 F.Sanchez M.Kemp
3 P.Sandoval A.Ethier
4 B.Molina M.Ramirez
5 R.Garko C.Blake
6 N.Schierholtz J.Loney
7 A.Rowand R.Martin
8 E.Renteria O.Hudson
9 J.Sanchez V.Padilla



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Padilla has lower WHIP and FIP

how is that an advantage for Giants? Is it just his Dodger stats listed above and therefore the always fun SSS?

by MammothDodger on Sep 18, 2009 10:46 AM PDT reply actions  

Yes, that is just his Dodger stats. 2009 stats for Padilla (including Texas) has a FIP of 4.53.

by Michael White on Sep 18, 2009 10:59 AM PDT up reply actions  

Is FIP the new ERA+?

Hardly see the latter stat anymore.

by silverwidow on Sep 18, 2009 2:46 PM PDT reply actions  

I think ERA+ has more meaning after the year has been completed….

by Michael White on Sep 18, 2009 3:01 PM PDT up reply actions  

Over the few years a lot a new stats have come into vogue.

If the goal is to better understand the game than, less accurate stats are going to become less popular. FIP and tRA and wOBA are much more useful or evaluation purposes.

by fritts on Sep 18, 2009 3:05 PM PDT up reply actions  

SF 8-4

was the 63rd most likely score in case you were wondering. Tonight’s final score occurred 131 times over 25K sims. For reference the #1 most likely score occurred 986 times. The SF 8-4 score was sandwiched between scores of LAN 8-6 and SF 8-3. Better luck tomorrow.
vr, Xei

by Xeifrank on Sep 18, 2009 10:56 PM PDT reply actions  

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2012 Dodgers Payroll

Italics denote estimates
Pos No Player 2012 Salary
C 17 Ellis $500,000 team control
1B 7 Loney $6,375,000
2B 14 Ellis $2,500,000
3B 5 Uribe $8,000,000
SS 9 Gordon $485,000 team control
LF 21 Rivera $4,000,000
CF 27 Kemp $10,000,000
RF 16 Ethier $10,950,000

IF/OF 6 Hairston $2,250,000
OF 10 Gwynn $850,000
2B/3B 3 Kennedy $800,000
C 18 Treanor $850,000
IF 12 Sellers $485,000 team control

SP 22 Kershaw $6,000,000
SP 58 Billingsley $9,000,000
SP 29 Lilly $12,000,000
SP 35 Capuano $3,000,000
SP 44
Harang $3,000,000

CL 54 Guerra $485,000 team control
RHP 74
Jansen $500,000 team control
RHP 55 Guerrier $4,750,000
RHP 60 Coffey $1,000,000
RHP 66 MacDougal $650,000
LHP 57 Elbert $485,000 team control
RHP 36
Hawksworth $500,000 team control

TJ 41 De La Rosa $485,000 team control



Manny $8,087,432 deferred


Andruw $3,375,000 deferred


Pierre $3,050,000 deferred
Furcal $3,000,000 deferred
Kuroda $2,000,000 deferred
Garland $1,500,000 option buyout
Blake $1,250,000 option buyout

Totals
$112,162,432

For more detailed information, click here.

Players on 40-man roster used as roster
fillers until moves are made.

Current 40-man roster count: 40
(not including Belisario)

2012 Non-Roster Invitees

No Player Age*
63 Jose Ascanio rhp
27
61 Alberto Castillo lhp
36
56 Matt Chico lhp
29
33 John Grabow lhp
33
59 Angel Guzman rhp
30
47 Wil Ledezma lhp
31
72 Shane Lindsay rhp
27
62 Fernando Nieve rhp 29
73 Scott Rice lhp 30
70 Will Savage rhp
27
71 Ryan Tucker rhp
25
28 Jamey Wright rhp
37

30 Josh Bard c 34
82 Griff Erickson c 24
81 Matt Wallachc 26
67 Jeff Baisley 3b/1b 29
65 Luis Cruz ss/2b 28
37 Josh Fields 3b 29
64 Lance Zawadzki if 27
56 Cory Sullivan of 32

*Age on June 30, 2012

NRI count: 20

For more info, click here.


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