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Dodgers Simulation, September 19th

I used my simulator to simulate 25000 baseball games between the Giants and Dodgers using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran at 11:30PM)

 

Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob AccuScore
SF LAN B.Penny vs J.Garland LAN 56.33% 61.58% 52%

 Skinny:  Simulator Fun Facts... My simulator likes the Dodgers chances quite a bit more than the Vegas ML does.  I think most of this can be attributed to how my system is projecting Penny vs how the public thinks he will do.  Penny has three very good starts in a row and that may be clouding the minds of the betting public.  Whereas my simulator does weight most recent performances heavier, it also looks at what looks to be a longer track record of performance.

 

 

Top 20 Most Likely Scores

1 LAN 4-3
2 LAN 5-4
3 LAN 3-2
4 LAN 6-5
5 SF 4-3
6 LAN 2-1
7 LAN 4-2
8 LAN 5-3
9 SF 5-4
10 LAN 5-2
11 LAN 3-1
12 SF 3-2
13 LAN 7-6
14 SF 4-2
15 LAN 4-1
16 SF 5-3
17 LAN 6-3
18 LAN 6-4
19 SF 6-5
20 SF 6-4

 

Pitching Stats

Pitcher WHIP FIP
B.Penny 1.515 4.576
J.Garland 1.279 3.851

 


Note: Keep in mind I did this simulation before knowing the actual starting lineups, so some of the players I used may not be starting.   Many of the "Players Most Likely To" stats depend on having the correct lineup.  The lineups  I used are listed below.  Chances are you won't see a big difference in win probability from having the lineup order slightly off.  Picking the correct starters is more important, especially if one of the better players is taking the day off.  But you still won't see a big change in win probability if the starter and backup are interchangeable.

Simulation Lineups
1 E.Velez R.Furcal
2 F.Sanchez M.Kemp
3 P.Sandoval A.Ethier
4 B.Molina M.Ramirez
5 R.Garko C.Blake
6 N.Schierholtz J.Loney
7 A.Rowand R.Martin
8 E.Renteria O.Hudson
9 B.Penny J.Garland

 



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2010 Dodger Payroll

Pos No Player 2010 Salary
C 55 Martin $5,050,000
1B 7 Loney $3,100,000
2B 33 DeWitt $410,000*
3B 23 Blake $6,000,000
SS 15 Furcal $8,500,000
LF 99 Manny $7,267,760
CF 27 Kemp $4,000,000
RF 16 Ethier $6,000,000

2B/3B 14 Carroll $1,350,000
2B/3B/1B 3 Belliard $825,000
C 12 Ausmus $850,000
OF 5 Johnson $800,000
SS 60 Hu $405,000*

SP 22 Kershaw $425,000*
SP 58 Billingsley $3,850,000
SP 18 Kuroda $14,100,000
SP 44 Padilla $4,025,000
SP 50 Stults $405,000*

CL 51 Broxton $4,000,000
LHP 52 Sherrill $4,500,000
LHP 56 Kuo $950,000
RHP 67 Troncoso $425,000*
RHP 54 Belisario $425,000*
RHP 31 McDonald $425,000*
RHP 68 Monasterios $460,000*

Pierre $4,000,000
Andruw $3,600,000
Schmidt $2,000,000
Wolf $2,000,000
Hudson $1,440,000
Nomar $1,250,000
Ohman $200,000
Zerpa $35,000
Hoffmann ($50,000)

Others on 40-man roster (total: 39)
RHP 64 Guerra  
RHP 37 Haeger  
RHP 74 Jansen  
LHP 59 Leach
RHP 73 Link  
RHP 49 Schlichting  
LHP 57 Elbert  
RHP 47 Wade
C 9 Ellis  
C 71 May  
SS 87 DeJesus  
OF 75 Paul
OF 17 Repko $500,000
OF 62 Robinson  

Totals $93,522,760
 
Red = arbitration
Asterisk (*) = estimated
For more detailed information, click here.

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