FanPost

Dodgers Simulation, September 19th

I used my simulator to simulate 25000 baseball games between the Giants and Dodgers using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran at 11:30PM)

 

Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob AccuScore
SF LAN B.Penny vs J.Garland LAN 56.33% 61.58% 52%

 Skinny:  Simulator Fun Facts... My simulator likes the Dodgers chances quite a bit more than the Vegas ML does.  I think most of this can be attributed to how my system is projecting Penny vs how the public thinks he will do.  Penny has three very good starts in a row and that may be clouding the minds of the betting public.  Whereas my simulator does weight most recent performances heavier, it also looks at what looks to be a longer track record of performance.

 

 

Top 20 Most Likely Scores

1 LAN 4-3
2 LAN 5-4
3 LAN 3-2
4 LAN 6-5
5 SF 4-3
6 LAN 2-1
7 LAN 4-2
8 LAN 5-3
9 SF 5-4
10 LAN 5-2
11 LAN 3-1
12 SF 3-2
13 LAN 7-6
14 SF 4-2
15 LAN 4-1
16 SF 5-3
17 LAN 6-3
18 LAN 6-4
19 SF 6-5
20 SF 6-4

 

Pitching Stats

Pitcher WHIP FIP
B.Penny 1.515 4.576
J.Garland 1.279 3.851

 


Note: Keep in mind I did this simulation before knowing the actual starting lineups, so some of the players I used may not be starting.   Many of the "Players Most Likely To" stats depend on having the correct lineup.  The lineups  I used are listed below.  Chances are you won't see a big difference in win probability from having the lineup order slightly off.  Picking the correct starters is more important, especially if one of the better players is taking the day off.  But you still won't see a big change in win probability if the starter and backup are interchangeable.

Simulation Lineups
1 E.Velez R.Furcal
2 F.Sanchez M.Kemp
3 P.Sandoval A.Ethier
4 B.Molina M.Ramirez
5 R.Garko C.Blake
6 N.Schierholtz J.Loney
7 A.Rowand R.Martin
8 E.Renteria O.Hudson
9 B.Penny J.Garland

 



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