September 2nd, Dodgers Simulation

by Xeifrank on Sep 2, 2009 11:45 AM PDT

I used my simulator to simulate 25000 baseball games between the Diamondbacks and Dodgers using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups. The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran at 4:47PM, with correct lineups)

Visitors	Home	Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Over/Under	Final Score
ARI	LAN	M.Scherzer vs C.Billingsley	LAN	62.69%	62.64%	8.1/ 7.27	TBD

Skinny: Today's win probability is very similar to yesterdays. Both Vegas and the Simulator are in good agreement as to who will win tonight's game, but the simulator sees a much lower run environment than Vegas does. I guess Vegas oddsmakers aren't completely enamored with Max Schrezer and Chad BIllingsley.

Simulator Fun Facts...

Top 10 Most Likely Scores
1	LAN 3-2
2	LAN 2-1
3	LAN 4-3
4	LAN 5-4
5	ARI 3-2
6	LAN 3-1
7	ARI 2-1
8	LAN 1-0
9	LAN 4-2
10	ARI 4-3

Most common shutout score:

LAN 1-0

Pitching Stats
Pitcher	WHIP	FIP
M.Scherzer	1.311	3.532
C.Billingsley	1.119	3.006

Player Most Likely To
Category	Diamondbacks Player	Dodgers Player
Hit A HR	M.Reynods	M.Ramirez
Hit A 3B	G.Parra	M.Kemp
Hit a 2B	B.Allen	M.Ramirez
Score Runs	S.Drew	A.Ethier
Walk the most	S.Drew	A.Ethier
K the most	M.Reynolds	M.Kemp
Highest OPS	M.Reynolds	M.Ramirez

Note: Keep in mind I did this simulation before knowing the actual starting lineups, so some of the players I used may not be starting. The lineups I used are listed below

Simulation Lineups
1	S.Drew	R.Furcal
2	G.Parra	A.Ethier
3	J.Upton	M.Ramirez
4	M.Reynolds	M.Kemp
5	M.Montero	J.Loney
6	B.Allen	R.Belliard
7	A.Romero	R.Martin
8	A.Ojeda	O.Hudson
9	M.Scherzer	C.Billingsley

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1st

i would like to say that I certainly enjoy these postings.

by MammothDodger on Sep 2, 2009 11:56 AM PDT reply actions

Thanks. I am trying to think of any other “fun facts” that I can provide to make them more interesting to read, that wouldn’t involve hours of typing (or html formatting). I have some ideas that I am working on and hope they go over well.
vr, Xei

by Xeifrank on Sep 2, 2009 12:03 PM PDT up reply actions

2nd

i would like to ask, have you used your results in any “betting environment” or is it purely an academic pursuit

by MammothDodger on Sep 2, 2009 11:58 AM PDT reply actions

Sorry, can’t comment on that one.
vr, Xei

by Xeifrank on Sep 2, 2009 12:01 PM PDT up reply actions

the vegas o/u is 9, right?

interesting that you came in under 8

by stillnotah8er on Sep 2, 2009 3:28 PM PDT reply actions

one guess as to the difference

would be that vegas sees the Max S 4.02 away era, while you look at the less impressive modern stats like a 1.50 away WHIP and 270 baa

by stillnotah8er on Sep 2, 2009 3:33 PM PDT up reply actions

I doubt he is factoring in the BAA...

by Michael White on Sep 2, 2009 3:47 PM PDT up reply actions

It was 8.1 last night when I went to bed, I can’t imagine that the O/U is 9 now. Maybe you read it wrong?
I can’t view any sites that have odds from this computer, but if you visit the site below you can tell me what it says the O/U is and I can convert for you.

http://www.pinnaclesports.com/League/Baseball/MLB/1/Lines.aspx

The over/under from Vegas the previous two games was 7.9 (Davis vs Wolf) and 9.0 (Petit vs Padilla), so know way is Scherzer vs Billingsley going to be 9.0

vr, Xei

by Xeifrank on Sep 2, 2009 4:17 PM PDT up reply actions

that has a 8 -115

i was referring to the morning bodog line. i could have misread it or it could have changed. personally, i wouldn’t touch it tonight in either direction! the dodger offense could be ready to blow off some steam.

by stillnotah8er on Sep 2, 2009 5:23 PM PDT up reply actions

8O or 8U? -115
8O -115 would be around 8.2, and 8U -115 would be around 7.8 (not exactly but close).
vr, Xei

by Xeifrank on Sep 2, 2009 5:28 PM PDT up reply actions

a strong under (like your guess)

by stillnotah8er on Sep 2, 2009 5:50 PM PDT up reply actions

Looks like the “smart money” has moved the Vegas over/under from 8.1 down to 7.8
vr, Xei

by Xeifrank on Sep 2, 2009 6:29 PM PDT up reply actions

Unders win

Should be interesting to see what kind of probability for the Buckner vs Garland super showdown.
vr, Xei

by Xeifrank on Sep 2, 2009 9:49 PM PDT reply actions

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2012 Dodgers Payroll

Italics denote estimates
Pos	No	Player	2012 Salary
C	17	Ellis	$500,000	team control
1B	7	Loney	$6,375,000
2B	14	Ellis	$2,500,000
3B	5	Uribe	$8,000,000
SS	9	Gordon	$485,000	team control
LF	21	Rivera	$4,000,000
CF	27	Kemp	$10,000,000
RF	16	Ethier	$10,950,000

IF/OF	6	Hairston	$2,250,000
OF	10	Gwynn	$850,000
2B/3B	3	Kennedy	$800,000
C	18	Treanor	$850,000
IF	12	Sellers	$485,000	team control

SP	22	Kershaw	$6,000,000
SP	58	Billingsley	$9,000,000
SP	29	Lilly	$12,000,000
SP	35	Capuano	$3,000,000
SP	44	Harang	$3,000,000

CL	54	Guerra	$485,000	team control
RHP	74	Jansen	$500,000	team control
RHP	55	Guerrier	$4,750,000
RHP	60	Coffey	$1,000,000
RHP	66	MacDougal	$650,000
LHP	57	Elbert	$485,000	team control
RHP	36	Hawksworth	$500,000	team control

TJ	41	De La Rosa	$485,000	team control

		Manny	$8,087,432	deferred
		Andruw	$3,375,000	deferred
		Pierre	$3,050,000	deferred
		Furcal	$3,000,000	deferred
		Kuroda	$2,000,000	deferred
		Garland	$1,500,000	option buyout
		Blake	$1,250,000	option buyout

Totals			$112,162,432
For more detailed information, click here.
Players on 40-man roster used as roster fillers until moves are made. Current 40-man roster count: 40 (not including Belisario)

2012 Non-Roster Invitees

No	Player	Age*
63	Jose Ascanio rhp	27
61	Alberto Castillo lhp	36
56	Matt Chico lhp	29
33	John Grabow lhp	33
59	Angel Guzman rhp	30
47	Wil Ledezma lhp	31
72	Shane Lindsay rhp	27
62	Fernando Nieve rhp	29
73	Scott Rice lhp	30
70	Will Savage rhp	27
71	Ryan Tucker rhp	25
28	Jamey Wright rhp	37

30	Josh Bard c	34
82	Griff Erickson c	24
81	Matt Wallachc	26
67	Jeff Baisley 3b/1b	29
65	Luis Cruz ss/2b	28
37	Josh Fields 3b	29
64	Lance Zawadzki if	27
56	Cory Sullivan of	32

*Age on June 30, 2012
NRI count: 20 For more info, click here.

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September 2nd, Dodgers Simulation

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