I used my simulator to simulate 25000 baseball games between the Dodgers and Nationals using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups. The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.
Today's Results... (Last simulation ran at 10:00PM)
|Visitors||Home||Pitching Matchup||Favorite||Vegas Win Prob||Simulator Win Prob||AccuScore|
|LAN||WAS||H.Kuroda vs L.Hernandez||LAN||64.97%||60.95%||70%|
Skinny: Simulator Fun Facts... Vegas is making the Dodgers a rather large road favorite. They must be very high on Kuroda after his recent good outing. Meanwhile, my simulator also gives the Dodgers a good chance of winning on the road, but not nearly as confident in the pick as vegas is. AccuScore seems to be on a caffein high.
Top 20 Most Likely Scores
Game Pitching Results
Note: Keep in mind I did this simulation before knowing the actual starting lineups, so some of the players I used may not be starting. Many of the "Players Most Likely To" stats depend on having the correct lineup. The lineups I used are listed below. Chances are you won't see a big difference in win probability from having the lineup order slightly off. Picking the correct starters is more important, especially if one of the better players is taking the day off. But you still won't see a big change in win probability if the starter and backup are interchangeable.