FanPost

Dodgers Simulation, September 23rd

I used my simulator to simulate 25000 baseball games between the Dodgers and Nationals using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran at 11:00PM)

 

Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob AccuScore
LAN WAS C.Billingsley vs R.Detwiler LAN 64.16% 58.52% 66%

 Skinny:  Simulator Fun Facts... Fresh off their 14-2 pounding of the Nationals, which AccuScore seemed to most accurately pick with their 70% win probability, the Dodgers send the inconsistent Chad Billingsley to the mound.  Once again AccuScore is coming in on the high end with a 66% win probability and my simulator appears to be the outlier lowballing the other two sources with a 58.52% win probability.  It all boils down to which Chad Billingsley will appear.  Good Chad or bad Chad.  It's not an easy game to handicap.  The simulator doesn't take into account any of the ups and downs we may feel as fans, it just takes his stats over the past two years and weights the most recent performance heavier on a log scale.

 

 

Top 20 Most Likely Scores

1 WAS 3-2
2 WAS 4-3
3 LAN 3-2
4 WAS 2-1
5 LAN 4-3
6 WAS 5-4
7 LAN 2-1
8 LAN 4-2
9 LAN 5-4
10 LAN 3-1
11 LAN 5-3
12 WAS 4-2
13 WAS 6-5
14 LAN 5-2
15 LAN 4-1
16 LAN 6-2
17 LAN 6-3
18 LAN 5-1
19 WAS 5-3
20 WAS 3-1

 

Game Pitching Results

Pitcher WHIP FIP
C.Billingsley 1.302 3.433
R.Detwiler 1.463 4.223

 


Note: Keep in mind I did this simulation before knowing the actual starting lineups, so some of the players I used may not be starting.   Many of the "Players Most Likely To" stats depend on having the correct lineup.  The lineups  I used are listed below.  Chances are you won't see a big difference in win probability from having the lineup order slightly off.  Picking the correct starters is more important, especially if one of the better players is taking the day off.  But you still won't see a big change in win probability if the starter and backup are interchangeable.

Simulation Lineups
1 R.Furcal W.Harris
2 M.Kemp A.Gonzalez
3 A.Ethier R.Zimmerman
4 M.Ramirez A.Dunn
5 C.Blake J.Willingham
6 J.Loney E.Dukes
7 R.Belliard J.Bard
8 R.Martin P.Orr
9 C.Billingsley R.Detwiler




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