Dodgers Look To Bounce Back After Nationals Knock Down
by Eric Stephen on Sep 24, 2009 12:00 PM PDT
in Dodgers Game Previews
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PrintThe Dodgers lost last night in walk-off fashion, the seventh time they have done so this season. On the walk-off ledger, the Dodgers are still in the black, thanks to their 12 walk-off wins at Dodger Stadium. After the previous six walk-off defeats, the Dodgers have done well the next game:
| Date | Walk-Off | Date | Result |
| June 25 | 6-5 L @ CWS | June 26 | 8-2 W vs Sea |
| July 29 | 3-2 L @ StL | July 30 | 5-3 W @ StL |
| August 12 | 4-2 L @ SF | August 14 | 4-1 L @ AZ |
| August 15 | 4-3 L @ AZ | August 16 | 9-3 W @ AZ |
| August 25 | 5-4 L @ Col | August 26 | 6-1 W @ Col |
| September 9 | 4-3 L @ AZ | September 11 | 10-3 W @ SF |
I doubt that really means much going into today, but a 5-1 record isn't bad.
Vicente Padilla is making his sixth start as a Dodger tonight, and coming off really his only bad start in Dodger blue. He gave up four runs in five innings Friday against the Giants, but through five starts as a Dodger he is 3-0 record with a 2.96 ERA, a 3.99 FIP, and a 3.88 x-FIP.
Starting for the Nationals tonight is another rookie, 26-year old J.D. Martin. He has given up exactly two earned runs in each of his last four starts. He is 5-4 with a 4.21 ERA in 12 starts, but has also given up 12 home runs in 62 innings. Of the 261 MLB pitchers with at least 60 innings pitched this season, Martin is 248th in home runs per nine innings, at 1.74 His FIP is 5.73 and his x-FIP is 5.34.
Casey Blake will likely sit tonight with a sore left hamstring, which he re-injured running the bases on his home run Tuesday. Also, it wouldn't surprise me to see Orlando Hudson sitting again, especially after his fall last night.
Today's Dodger birthdays include Dick Nen and Hubie Brooks.
**********
The playoff scenario is the same today as it was yesterday, except that the Dodgers can't clinch a spot today because the Braves are off. The Giants play the Cubs at home tonight at 7:15pm.
The Rockies, five games back in the division with 10 to play, host the Padres at 5:40pm.
**********
Check out Xeifrank's simulation of today's game here.
Don't forget to RSVP for True Blue LA Day at Dodger Stadium, on the next-to-last day of the regular season, October 3 against the Rockies.
Get your guesses in for our today's "One, Two, Three Strikes, You're Out," here.
Game Time: 4:05pm
TV: KCAL
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Comments
First!
to clinch a playoff birth in the NL would be nice, but I think the Cardinals will beat us to it.
vr, Xei
Second string OF Juan Pierre really sucks doens't he?
/This was a joke as yesterdays game preview had a ton of Juan Pierre debate.
by Michael White on Sep 24, 2009 12:09 PM PDT up reply actions
Fourth
win of the year for Padilla tonight
by meercatjohn on Sep 24, 2009 12:22 PM PDT up reply actions
5th walk off home run for ethier tonight????
o shit were on the road so nevermind
Second!
coming of the NIght Stalker, VP goes deep into the game and comes out with a win. But Bills is still the call for the playoff spot
So who's going to hit it out?
This guys has allowed 12 HRs in 12 games he’s played. I’m gonna go with Kemp
Ha Ha
remember the days when Manny was a lock for this pick
by meercatjohn on Sep 24, 2009 12:21 PM PDT up reply actions
RT @DodgertownUSA: #Dodgers Lineup: Furcal SS Ethier RF Ramirez LF Kemp CF Loney 1B Belliard 2B DeWitt 3B Martin C Padilla P
by Eric Stephen on Sep 24, 2009 12:32 PM PDT via mobile reply actions
O-Dog still hurting apparently
I’m surprised Joe hasn’t busted out the Martin to 3B, Ausmus C scenario.
by silverwidow on Sep 24, 2009 12:49 PM PDT up reply actions
Dewitt’s bat is better than Ausum’s and Dewitt’s glove at third is much better than JMart’s.
by Michael White on Sep 24, 2009 12:52 PM PDT up reply actions
That experiment died on the vine once Casey Blake arrived.
by Eric Stephen on Sep 24, 2009 12:55 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
Nats lineup
From Washington Post:
Harris – 8
Desmond – 6
Dunn – 3
Zimmerman – 5
Willingham – 7
Dukes – 9
Gonzalez – 4
Burke – 2
Martin – 1
by Eric Stephen on Sep 24, 2009 12:40 PM PDT via mobile reply actions
If Abreu still gets traded
I think it’s good news for DeJesus. He can play 2B/SS in AAA next year and will be first in line to take over those positions in the bigs when he’s hitting enough.
I can easily see that scenario
with Belliard/DeWitt platooning to start the season and DeJesus taking over if they are found wanting. I don’t expect the Dodgers to spend much money at 2nd base next year.
Unless Ned gets a Figgins fixation
and decides to make him our 2nd baseman. I bet Torre loves the guy since he was part of the Angels mastery over the Yankee’s. Where Figgins goes and where he will play will be an interesting offseason.
Have you noticed how Kendry Morales is sucking big time wind in Sept? Hope he snaps out of it, they are the only team I care about in AL with the Rays out.
Probable 2010 ML debuts
Lindblom (ETA May)
Withrow (ETA July/August)
DeJesus (ETA July/August)
Can’t see any other top prospects hitting the majors before September. The team is still likely to use Paul/Hoffmann over Lambo if there’s an OF need. Short term, at least.
Lucas May?
Callup if Ellis or Martin gets injured or at a minimum will get called up when rosters expand.
Unless you think the backup catcher role will be filled by a PVL and not Ellis…
by Michael White on Sep 24, 2009 1:18 PM PDT up reply actions
Manny needs to step up
We have a tough road ahead after making play-offs. Our record has slipped alil since Manny’s return. Ethier is the shiznik!!
J. D. = John Dale
J. D. Martin was a supplemental first-round pick, 35th overall, by Cleveland in 2001. He was born in and played his high school ball in Ridgecrest, way, way out in the high desert. He’s another guy that had injury problems and T. J. surgery a few years ago.
way, way out in the high desert
He’s even way, way out from me! Like almost two hours north.
by Eric Stephen on Sep 24, 2009 1:38 PM PDT up reply actions
I’ve driven through Ridgecrest. It’s on 395 so its the route between L.A and Mammoth/Tahoe. There is a Navy base there—- but it’s not on the ocean. I think it has to do with naval aviation.
by Michael White on Sep 24, 2009 1:59 PM PDT up reply actions
I use the 14 to the 395 which sort of skirts around Ridgecrest/Inyokern
That’s the China Lake Naval Weapons Center out there.
Teams are starting to outright players already
Cleveland just kicked three guys off their 40-man today.
I’m guessing Stults is a candidate for an outright later this year.
Dodger talk on 710 am
on Thompson and Siciliano – Seth Everett as their guest
1. Siciliano and Everett ripping Bills, basically saying he’s a 5 inning guy and worthless in the postseason
2. Everett pretty much saying LA can expect a 3 or 4 game playoff stay
3. Crazy alert – look for Pedro to become the new closer in Philly
4. Debating who is more screwed up in the head b/t Lidge and Bills – everyone going with Lidge
5 minutes of my life I’ll never get back.
I didn’t see the game. Keith Law was pretty critical of him though in chat today, one hit or not, saying his command was “awful.”
Yeah I saw that
but going into the sixth he had no hits and only two walks. Both walks being against their best hitters. Awful seems a stretch and Law has been known to use the hyperbole to get his point across.
yeah, I do find "awful" a bit tough to beleive
I do trust Law though, if he says he was bad, I believe him. But awful does sound a bit ridiculous seeing as he really only struggled in the 6th.
Yeah, Eric had that quote in the "Double Trouble" thread comments
From Keith Law who was at last night’s Dodgers/Nats game, on how Billingsley looked:
Awful. 35 command, then he hung a breaking ball to Zimmerman. It might as well have been on a tee.The 35 is on a 20-80 scout’s scale.
by Eric Stephen on Sep 24, 2009 11:44 AM PDT
How do you quantify that?
Was he falling behind to everyone and just getting lucky, or what. I just seems tough to believe that it would be that low with no hits and 2 walks through 5, unless Law only saw the 6th inning.
That wasn’t what was happening. When I followed on radio, he was consistently getting 1st pitch strikes. Considering the high K rate, its not like it was BABIP success. Getting hitters to chase pitches is not exactly a bad thing…
by Michael White on Sep 24, 2009 2:30 PM PDT up reply actions
It’s hard to be in a good position to disagree without going to the recording and watching every pitch. Was he hitting Martin’s glove on the fastballs? Etc.
I watched the whole game, but honestly I don’t remember the details. He did seem to overthrow a few pitches (the 3-2 pitch to Dunn in the 6th, for instance), but it was only a few. And it was mostly when he has 0-2 and was trying to fish.
For the most part, his fastball had movement and he was doing alright, and was utilizing the bouncy curve on occasion with success. Who knows, though? I might see something different on a second, more critical viewing.
by Eric Stephen on Sep 24, 2009 2:36 PM PDT up reply actions
Ya, with it being an east coast game many of us missed actually seeing Bills pitch. I followed on here for an hour, 45 minutes in the car (Monday and Steiner were pretty pleased with Chad), and only 2 batters at home (clearly the homerun was my fault.) As such, I can’t comment either on his command.
by Michael White on Sep 24, 2009 2:26 PM PDT up reply actions
maybe, but it wasn't a one hitter against a major league team
it isn’t like this series is against a real team like, say, the rivercats. hopefully we don’t play to their level again tonight.
incidentally, atlanta has 6/9 games remaining against the nats.
by stillnotah8er on Sep 24, 2009 2:55 PM PDT up reply actions
The Nationals defeated Dan Haren, Joel Piniero, Jon Smoltz, Carlos Zambrano, and Joe Blanton twice this year.
That’s one of the reasons why I love baseball so much, joking aside, there really aren’t any completely incompetent teams, any team can beat any other. It’s not like college or professional football….
by Michael White on Sep 24, 2009 3:03 PM PDT up reply actions
and, of course, a lineup not much better
crushed a 99% pecota team just a couple of years ago, with quite a few runs. i miss dmitri young, he was fun to watch.
but let’s not kid ourselves – they’re horrible.
by stillnotah8er on Sep 24, 2009 3:07 PM PDT up reply actions
99%? PECOTA gives odds of 99%? That seems pretty rediculous.
by Michael White on Sep 24, 2009 3:10 PM PDT up reply actions
yup, the mets were at 99% at that point
and they give 99s to all three div leaders now.
by stillnotah8er on Sep 24, 2009 3:18 PM PDT up reply actions
Oh, to make the playoffs. Well that’s quite a bit different. That is the odds that a bunch of different events will happen of course. In individual contests the parity in MLB seems to be the most pronounced of all the major sports.
by Michael White on Sep 24, 2009 3:21 PM PDT up reply actions
yup, a massive monte carlo sim
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/ps_oddspec.php
i assumed every baseball nerd hat that link on their toolbar!
go to september 23:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_New_York_Mets_season#Game_log
by stillnotah8er on Sep 24, 2009 3:23 PM PDT up reply actions
I don’t even know why I am commenting because you are arguing just to argue, but just because a team has a 99% chance to make the playoffs doesn’t mean they are locks to win every game.
Xeifrank knows more than I do, but I would venture to guess that the best team will beat the worst team only about 60-65% of the time, at most.
by Eric Stephen on Sep 24, 2009 3:27 PM PDT up reply actions
Ya, I’m always surprised when XeiFrank’s simulator gets close to 70% WE.
by Michael White on Sep 24, 2009 3:28 PM PDT up reply actions
just giving a tribute to the nats of that year
and acknowledging white’s point… you read way too much into it, eric
by stillnotah8er on Sep 24, 2009 3:29 PM PDT up reply actions
From my experience, not just with my simulator but reading the Vegas ML a 70% favorite is a pretty big mismatch. I believe the biggest one I ever saw in looking at data over the past 6-8 years was a contest in which Pedro Martinez pitched in. His team was around an 80% favorite.
vr, Xei
Wow, 80% is insane
and a total sucker bet. What are you laying $1,000 to win $100?
by Michael White on Sep 24, 2009 3:31 PM PDT up reply actions
best bet i ever made
laying 950 to win 100 against air force in the opening round of the ncaas 4 years ago. ice in the veins, baby.
by stillnotah8er on Sep 24, 2009 3:32 PM PDT up reply actions
Most people would usually call the “best bet they ever made” a huge underdog that hit. I think this is first time I’ve seen it the other way around.
by Michael White on Sep 24, 2009 3:34 PM PDT up reply actions
welcome to my world
i had my best day on the stock market in a few weeks today, too
by stillnotah8er on Sep 24, 2009 3:35 PM PDT up reply actions
At or near Pedro’s peak, I once placed a money line bet on the Red Sox to win at -330.
by Eric Stephen on Sep 24, 2009 3:33 PM PDT up reply actions
I think I was 22. Won a grand total of $10 :)
by Eric Stephen on Sep 24, 2009 3:42 PM PDT up reply actions
Stillnotah8er I believe was talking about playoff odds.
by Eric Stephen on Sep 24, 2009 3:20 PM PDT up reply actions
the nats offense is not that bad at all
its their pitching that is killing them
dunn willingham zimmerman guzman dukes harris jesus flores…
they have a really good offensive team… they would be .500 if they had any pitching or better coaching
Well...
we could just as easily discount Kuroda’s strong pitching performance from the day before, yet nobody did.
Game Score for Pitchers this Series
Kuroda: 64
Billingsley: 63
The only difference between the 2 pitchers is the fact that one had an offense which scored a ton of runs, the other didn’t.
by Michael White on Sep 24, 2009 3:13 PM PDT up reply actions
hiroki only gave up 2 runs
and didn’t hang a meatball to the best hitter on the team with 2 men on
by stillnotah8er on Sep 24, 2009 3:20 PM PDT up reply actions
No
he threw a meatball to the second best hitter on the team with one man on.
Yes, I realize that giving up 3 runs is worse than giving up 2.
by Michael White on Sep 24, 2009 3:22 PM PDT up reply actions
Kuroda did hang a meatball to the Nationals best hitter — Adam Dunn — on Tuesday with a man on that gave the Nats the lead.
by Eric Stephen on Sep 24, 2009 3:25 PM PDT up reply actions
significantly earlier in the game
and this Dunn fellow you mention – does he occasionally strike out?
by stillnotah8er on Sep 24, 2009 3:26 PM PDT up reply actions
…and we’re done. Sara S just called. She is begging for a conversation like 3 threads ago.
by Eric Stephen on Sep 24, 2009 3:28 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
And
both Kuroda and Billingsley had the exact “game” FIP of 4.37.
Even starts (stat wise), just like you stated.
vr, Xei
serious question, frank
do you consider a pitching performance where a team bats around in one inning but the pitcher is perfect in the other 5-8 to be the same as one in which a pitcher gives up the same number of walks/hits in different innings?
obviously, one could be a 9-run game, the other, a shutout.
by stillnotah8er on Sep 24, 2009 3:31 PM PDT up reply actions
That’s a fair question. I would probably consider them of equal footing, but would listen to arguments if there was some other surrounding circumstance of importance. I would most likely consider the distribution of hits in one inning vs spread out as luck based.
vr, Xei
that's the weakness of the bill james school IMO
it also fails to penalize pitchers for horrible D, like the broxton/pujols debacle.
by stillnotah8er on Sep 24, 2009 3:35 PM PDT up reply actions
Why should pitchers be penalized for horrible D?
by Michael White on Sep 24, 2009 3:38 PM PDT up reply actions
if they're totally oblivious to the runner
who can basically run from first to home uncontested, that can have an impact on the game
by stillnotah8er on Sep 24, 2009 3:39 PM PDT up reply actions
personally
i usually have a ziploc baggy or bottle’s relative fullness to use as a metric. no idea what we would use for pitchers, especially righty relievers who can’t be bothered to turn around once in a while after they give out a walk.
by stillnotah8er on Sep 24, 2009 3:42 PM PDT up reply actions
Weakness? Easy to say something is a weakness, another thing to back it up.
Gonna have to come up with something better than pitchers defense. I don’t think Billingsley’s defense or fielding ability has anything to do with his pitching skill. More to do with his defense skill, just like the fielders around him.
Hope I am understanding your argument correctly.
vr, Xei
i'm just saying that it doesn't always quantify context
which was the point of my example.
there IS a grey zone between the joe morgan clutch/heart voodoo and the bill james universe, where the kind of pitcher i described gives up 9 runs and is still considered ‘better’ than the one who gives up zero in the same number of innings.
by stillnotah8er on Sep 24, 2009 3:41 PM PDT up reply actions
Those are all “small sample size” examples though. Over the long run, those things tend to even out.
vr, Xei
in the abstract world, maybe
back here on earth, we worry about chad’s inability to get Ws, whip and fip be damned
by stillnotah8er on Sep 24, 2009 3:43 PM PDT up reply actions
For a guy who quotes PECOTA every single day
I find it strange that you don’t embrace advanced statistics.
by Michael White on Sep 24, 2009 3:47 PM PDT up reply actions
I was more bummed we didn't hit a home run yesterday
then losing the game. I don’t want to go on a homerless streak. Not against the Nats and Pirates.
Quick thought on Sept 24th
After winning the first series last year and then failing in the 2nd round, I expect us to win the first and 2nd round, and then our pitching will be mashed in the World Series. However we win the series like the 1960 Pirates by winning the tough games and beating Mariano with a walk off by Hudson. Matt Kemp will play the role of Roberto Clemente.
Game Seven in 1960 has to be one of the greatest World Series games ever. The fact it was a game seven makes it for me a top five candidate for greatest game ever. The fact the Yankee’s lost makes it the greatest game ever.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/PIT/PIT196010130.shtml
Plus Harvey Haddix won making up for losing one of the greatest pitched games in history.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/MLN/MLN195905260.shtml
Had the multiple rallies by both teams late in the game too. Kind of crazy like the 2002 WS.
by Eric Stephen on Sep 24, 2009 2:39 PM PDT up reply actions
For the Raider fans
actually for Raider fans in the Bay area. The game is being blacked out this weekend. Not sure how large the blackout radious is and blackout rules tend to be pretty strange anyway.
This may piss off Underdog
since he lives in the bay area and the Raiders are playing the Bronco’s.
by Michael White on Sep 24, 2009 2:39 PM PDT up reply actions
What a good gig
and he will also get paid handsomely for the next two years and may not find a team to play for. Maybe he’s smarter then we think.
I still can't believe how weak Hudson's wrist is
he was flopping around like someone had tasered him when the replay looked so mild. Hell in softball if I didn’t see a belly flop a game I was disappointed and those beer bellies took the impact better. I know he had surgery but is his wrist held together with a Dreifort body part.
I rode the elevator on Sunday with Hudson and Broxton, and I was surprised that Hudson wasn’t wearing anything on his wrist. Not that he should when not playing, but it seems like the thing normally wears is almost a mini hard cast.
by Eric Stephen on Sep 24, 2009 2:47 PM PDT up reply actions
Yep. And received one in return from the O-Dog (I was facing him more than Broxton).
by Eric Stephen on Sep 24, 2009 3:13 PM PDT up reply actions
O-dog needs a new wrist
too bad they dont do wrist transplants…haha
"That is not how you play the game!!!" -Jack in the Box
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